Red Flag Warning 2, NWS Jacksonville, FL

966 
WWUS82 KJAX 082201
RFWJAX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
501 PM EST Thu Mar 8 2018


FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-124-125-082315-
/O.EXP.KJAX.FW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-180308T2200Z/
Hamilton-Suwannee-Columbia-Baker-Inland Nassau-Inland Duval-Union-
Bradford-Clay-St. Johns-Gilchrist-Alachua-Putnam-Flagler-Marion-
Coastal Nassau-Coastal Duval-
501 PM EST Thu Mar 8 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 020, 021, 
022, 023, 024, 025, 030, 031, 032, 033, 035, 036, 037, 038, 040, 
124, AND 125...


$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1059 PM EST Wed Mar 7 2018

...FROST ADVISORY INLAND TONIGHT...
...DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

.UPDATE...
Late evening surface analysis depicts an intense low pressure
center (986 millibars) along the Long Island/southern New England
coast. Cool high pressure (1027 millibars) blankets the Midwestern
U.S. and southern Plains states. High altitude cloudiness
associated with the subtropical branch of the jet stream continues
to stream over northeast and north central Florida, with this
cloud shield gradually progressing southeastward. Clear skies
prevail over southeast Georgia and the Suwannee Valley, and a
loosening pressure gradient is allowing for nearly calm winds
inland. Given rapid temperature falls and rising dewpoint
temperatures this evening, we issued a frost advisory overnight
for locations to the west of U.S. Highway 301, where lows will
fall into the mid 30s. Widespread frost will be possible in these
locations during the predawn and early morning hours on Thursday.
A tighter gradient will persist to the east of U.S. 301 overnight,
with a light northwesterly breeze keeping lows in the upper 30s
to lower 40s.

High pressure will continue to gradually build into the
southeastern states on Thursday. However, our local pressure
gradient will once again tighten after sunrise, with breezy west-
northwesterly surface winds developing by the mid to late morning
hours. Despite full sunshine and a very dry air mass, highs will
only climb to the 60-65 range, which is about 6-10 degrees below
early March climatology. A light freeze will be possible at inland
locations by early Friday morning as high pressure builds directly
over our region.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail at the regional terminals. Sustained
northwesterly surface winds will increase to near 10 knots by 14Z,
with winds becoming west-northwesterly and increasing to near 15
knots towards 17Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots will prevail tonight. Small Craft
Advisory conditions will continue for the nearshore waters through
tonight due to seas of 5 to 7 feet. A Small Craft Advisory will
continue for the offshore waters through Thursday due to elevated
seas. Later in the week a strong high pressure system will build
across the region with winds and seas slowly subsiding.

Rip Currents: Moderate to High Risk of Rip currents will continue
through Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for Thursday afternoon
throughout northeast and north central Florida due to another day
of dry and breezy conditions with increasing ERC values.
Northwesterly surface and transport wind speeds will increase to
near 10 mph shortly after sunrise on Thursday, with winds becoming
west-northwesterly by noon, with sustained surface speeds
strengthening to near 15 mph. Fuel moisture numbers in southeast
Georgia will be nearing Red Flag Criteria by Thursday afternoon,
and at a minimum, elevated fire weather conditions will exist
throughout southeast Georgia.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  36  61  33  61 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  42  59  40  59 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  37  63  36  64 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  43  63  41  63 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  37  64  34  65 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  37  64  35  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EST Thursday for Alachua-Baker-
     Bradford-Columbia-Gilchrist-Hamilton-Suwannee-Union.

     Fire Weather Watch Thursday afternoon for Alachua-Baker-Bradford-
     Clay-Coastal Duval-Coastal Nassau-Columbia-Flagler-
     Gilchrist-Hamilton-Inland Duval-Inland Nassau-Marion-Putnam-
     St. Johns-Suwannee-Union.

GA...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EST Thursday for Appling-Atkinson-
     Bacon-Brantley-Charlton-Clinch-Coffee-Echols-Jeff Davis-
     Pierce-Ware-Wayne.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EST Friday for Waters from
     Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to
     60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20
     to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for Coastal waters
     from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL
     out 20 NM-Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler
     Beach FL out 20 NM.

&&

Nelson/Sandrik/Cordero