Gale Warning 4, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1000 PM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018

...ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS TUESDAY...
...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY...

.UPDATE...Evening convection has nearly abated Southeast GA and
northeast FL. Severe storms are not forecast overnight. Lingering
showers are over coastal Georgia and over portions of NE FL. These
showers will continue to wane overnight. During the pre-dawn
hours, showers and thunderstorms are expected to enter the
northwest part of the CWA over the far western reaches of interior
SE GA well ahead of an approaching cold front. These storms are
expected to remain below severe limits until mid morning Tuesday.

From mid-morning through late afternoon there will be an enhanced
potential for severe weather. Around early afternoon, storms will
clear interior SE Georgia, with the greatest potential for severe
weather focuses west of Georgia High 301 and across NE FL where
instability will be maximized late morning through mid/late
afternoon with CAPES of 1500-2500 J/Kg with 50 knot LLJ peaking
out between 18z-21z across Northeast Florida where deep layer
shear will be pretty impressive.  As a result, a squall line is
expected to develop ahead of the front with isolated embedded
severe thunderstorms. Isolated supercell development is possible
ahead of the front, especially south of I-10 early to mid-
afternoon. Damaging winds, large hail and a couple tornadoes are
all possible with HRRR showing a few good helicity swaths across
the region.

&&

.AVIATION...Expect brief VFR conditions through about 09z, with
stratus at about 700 to 1500 feet until 12-13z.  Another round of
showers and possibly strong to severe storms is expected on
Tuesday along and ahead of a cold front, mainly between 16z and
21z, as the region gradually clears out between 21 and 24z.

&&

.MARINE...SW winds 15-20 knots offshore tonight Seas 2-3 ft near
shore and building to 4-5 ft well offshore. A strong cold front
will cross Tuesday afternoon and evening, with showers and storms
ahead of it. The region will be between departing low pressure to
the Northeast and building high pressure to the West Tuesday night
into Thursday. The high will build overhead Thursday night
through Friday.

Advisory criteria conditions will be expected from Tuesday
afternoon through at least Wednesday night.

Rip Currents: Low risk through Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  66  79  44  62 /  40  60   0   0
SSI  64  78  50  63 /  30  80   0   0
JAX  67  83  48  68 /  20  80   0   0
SGJ  67  81  49  68 /  30  80   0   0
GNV  67  78  47  68 /  40  80   0   0
OCF  67  80  48  69 /  80  80   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

Cordero/Nelson/Corless