Coastal Flood Statement 2, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
413 PM EDT Sun Sep 9 2018

.NEAR TERM (Tonight and Tomorrow)...
The NHC has classified Florence as a hurricane earlier today, and
it is currently located approximately 650 nautical miles SE of
Bermuda and moving W at about 5 knots. Scattered storms have begun
to develop throughout the forecast area and are expected to
disperse later this evening. The flow tomorrow will continue to
be lightly moving out of the southwest bringing in precipitable
water levels of over 2 inches. The overall weak pressure system
will allow the seabreezes to press inland, which will lead to
thunderstorm and shower developments later in the afternoon.

Overnight low temperatures are expected to be in the mid to low
70s. Tomorrows maximum high temperature will be in the low 90s in
inland areas and in the low 80s near the coast.

.SHORT TERM (Tuesday and Wednesday)...
Numerous to scattered thunderstorms and showers can be expected to
develop during this period as that the prevailing flow will
continue to be weak which will allow the seabreezes to press
inland and help to develop storms in the afternoon. Storms and
showers will be slow-moving, which could result in areas of
localized flooding with stronger storms.

Maximum high temperatures during this period are expected to be in
the low 90s and overnight low temperatures are forecasted to be in
the low to mid 70s.

.LONG TERM (Thursday thru Saturday...
Conditions later in the week will depend heavily on what path
Hurricane Florence eventually winds up taking. Current
predictions from the NHC have Florence steering towards the
Carolinas, however there is still some potential for variability
in probable path's cone. Thursday looks to be fairly active with
rainfall and convection. Current models show our region's flow
pattern coming from out of the north on Friday, bringing with it
lower precipitable water values towards the end of the week.

Maximum high temperatures during this period are expected to be in
the low 90s and overnight low temperatures are forecasted to be in
the low to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...Another day with scattered afternoon SHRA/TSRA
expected, with greater coverage well inland. Have VFR conditions
in TAFs, though briefly lower conditions are possible with TSRA.
Excluded VCTS from coastal TAF sites as developing activity should
be well inland. Have VCTS elsewhere, though included a late
afternoon TEMPO group for TSRA at KGNV when and where coverage may
be greater.

&&

.MARINE...
Seas will be on the rise to 4 to 5 feet with long periods swells
across the offshore waters and nearshore waters across northeast
Florida. Onshore flow will become southerly on Monday, with seas
decreasing briefly before the influence of Tropical Storm Florence
returns to the waters by Tuesday. Seas will build quickly to
caution levels on Wednesday with Small Craft Advisory criteria by
Wednesday night as Florence is expected to turn northwest toward
the eastern seaboard. Winds and seas will stay elevated through
the end of the week regardless of Florence's track. Please refer
to the National Hurricane Center regarding official forecast
information for Tropical Cyclone Florence.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk with the potential for high risk on
Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  91  72  92 /  40  20  40  40
SSI  75  89  76  88 /  20  20  20  30
JAX  73  91  74  91 /  20  50  30  40
SGJ  73  88  74  88 /  10  20  30  30
GNV  73  91  73  90 /  10  30  10  40
OCF  72  90  72  91 /  20  30  10  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal
     Duval-Coastal Flagler-Coastal Nassau-Coastal St. Johns-
     Inland Flagler-Inland St. Johns-Putnam.

     High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal
     Duval-Coastal Flagler-Coastal Nassau-Coastal St. Johns.

GA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal
     Camden-Coastal Glynn.

AM...None.
&&

Corless/Wolf/Bricker