Tornado Warning 18, NWS Jackson, MS

003 
WWUS54 KJAN 032344
SVSJAN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
644 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2018

LAC041-083-040030-
/O.CON.KJAN.TO.W.0018.000000T0000Z-180404T0030Z/
Richland LA-Franklin LA-
644 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2018

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM CDT FOR RICHLAND
AND NORTHERN FRANKLIN PARISHES...

At 643 PM CDT, a line of severe thunderstorms capable of producing 
both tornadoes and extensive straight line wind damage was located 
along a line extending from near Rayville to Mangham, moving east at 
35 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. 

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely. 

These dangerous storms will be near...
  Holly Ridge around 700 PM CDT. 
  Crowville around 705 PM CDT. 
  Delhi, Bakers and Warden around 710 PM CDT. 

Other locations impacted by these tornadic storms include Baskin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

This line of thunderstorms is capable of producing tornadoes and
widespread significant wind damage. Do not wait to see or hear the
tornado. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest
floor of a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3252 9184 3256 9181 3258 9145 3257 9145
      3249 9149 3236 9145 3235 9150 3232 9147
      3225 9156 3224 9151 3220 9154 3220 9149
      3212 9151 3215 9189 3216 9189 3217 9194
TIME...MOT...LOC 2343Z 268DEG 32KT 3243 9179 3229 9180 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.00IN

$$

NF

417 
WWUS54 KJAN 032358
SVSJAN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
658 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2018

LAC041-083-040030-
/O.CON.KJAN.TO.W.0018.000000T0000Z-180404T0030Z/
Richland LA-Franklin LA-
658 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2018

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN RICHLAND AND NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN PARISHES...
    
At 657 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Bakers, or 11 miles southeast of Rayville, moving
east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. 

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely. 

This dangerous storm will be near...
  Delhi around 705 PM CDT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

This cluster of thunderstorms is capable of producing tornadoes and
widespread significant wind damage. Do not wait to see or hear the
tornado. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest
floor of a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3258 9145 3257 9145 3249 9149 3236 9145
      3235 9150 3232 9147 3225 9156 3224 9151
      3220 9154 3220 9149 3212 9151 3214 9175
      3257 9164
TIME...MOT...LOC 2357Z 264DEG 36KT 3239 9159 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN

$$

NF

907 
WWUS54 KJAN 040011
SVSJAN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
711 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2018

LAC041-083-040020-
/O.CAN.KJAN.TO.W.0018.000000T0000Z-180404T0030Z/
Richland LA-Franklin LA-
711 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2018

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN RICHLAND AND NORTHEASTERN
FRANKLIN PARISHES IS CANCELLED...
                
The storms which prompted the warning have weakened below severe 
limits, and no longer appear capable of producing a tornado.
Therefore the warning has been cancelled.  However gusty winds up to 
55 mph are still possible with these thunderstorms.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
northeastern Louisiana.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
Jackson.

LAT...LON 3258 9145 3257 9145 3249 9149 3236 9145
      3235 9150 3232 9147 3225 9156 3224 9151
      3220 9154 3220 9149 3212 9151 3214 9175
      3257 9164
TIME...MOT...LOC 0008Z 266DEG 32KT 3240 9145 

$$

NF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
323 PM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018

...SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...

.DISCUSSION...
.Tonight through Wednesday: The primary concern will be the risk of
severe weather for late this afternoon into the overnight hours.

Latest rap and satellite imagery showed an upper trough moving
through the Plains toward the Mississippi Valley. Southwest flow
aloft in flat ridging was observed across the region. On the surface
the combination of low pressure to the west northwest and high
pressure to the east was bring gusty winds mainly across the delta
region. Portions of the delta region were under a wind advisory.
Otherwise a cold front was approaching from the northwest. In the
warm sector readings were in mainly in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Area radars were picking up some convection across portions of the
ArkLaTex where weather watches were in effect.

For late this afternoon into the overnight hours severe parameter
still look favorable in the latest model runs. The cold front will
be pushing into the northwest delta by early this evening. Latest Hi-
res CAM guidance still shows a QLCS like line that will pass over
the region from late this afternoon into the overnight hours.
Looking at the favorable severe parameters vertical totals upper
20s, midlevel lapse rates around 6.5 to 7.5C, deep layer shear 40 to
55 knots, MUCAPE around 1500 J/KG. While tornadoes cannot be ruled
out, the orientation of the 0-3km shear vectors are not as
supportive for this threat. As we go through the night the
instability will weaken as the QLCS tracks east southeast which is
reflected on the CAM guidance. The primary risks will be golf ball
size, damaging winds, and possible tornadoes. SPC has an enhanced
risk across portions of the northern delta region with a slight risk
elsewhere. Also the latest CAM guidance shows the post frontal gusty
winds across the delta through through 08z. So will extend the wind
advisory for a few more hours until 08z. The cold front will exit
the region prior to dawn. PWATs will be around 1.6 to 1.7 inches
which will may bring some locally heavy down pours. Due to the
progressive nature of this system not expecting any major flooding
concerns.

For Wednesday isolated showers will depart the Pine Belt area early.
A 1025 mb surface high will filter in a cooler airmass across the
region during the day. As far as temperatures are concern cooler
lows will range from the lower 40s to the lower 50s. Highs will
range from the middle 50s northwest to the middle 60s
southeast./17/

.Wednesday night through Monday night...Cold high pressure will
build in over the area Wednesday night behind the cold front.
Temperatures overnight Will fall into the 30s, with some areas
experiencing some patchy frost. This may have to be highlighted
in future HWO/Graphicasts. High pressure ridging will continue to
persist on Thursday from a high centered over the Ohio Valley.
Highs will climb to around 70 degrees across the area. As the
surface flow increases out of the southeast Thursday night into
Friday, so will the moisture. PWATS will climb to 1.3 to 1.5
inches across most of the area by Friday afternoon. Showers and
thunderstorms will be on the increase by Friday afternoon into the
evening hours, as a warm fronts pushes back north, out ahead of
another short wave and associated frontal system that will move
across the area overnight.

The front will sweep south across the area Friday night into
Saturday morning. Currently it looks like there will be enough
shear/instability for the possibility of another round of strong
to severe storms, and this will have to continue to be monitored.
The GFS/ECMWF differ on the timing of the back edge of the precip
on Saturday, with the ECMWF a little slower with moving the
precipitation out of the area. High pressure and dry/cool
conditions will return for Saturday, but the ECMWF/GFS diverge
Sunday night and Monday with a cold front across the area. Both
models have this feature, but the GFS is much stronger and
wetter. Will blend the two models and go with low end chance for
showers through this period. High pressure and dry/cool conditions
will return Monday night. /15/

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion:
VFR ceilings was noted across the region by early afternoon.
Gusty winds was noted across the region especially in the
northwest delta region, where a Wind Advisory is in effect. Winds
have gusted to around 30 to 35 knots. Elsewhere winds have gusted
around 20 to around 25 knots. Expect those conditions to continue
through this evening with the passage of the cold front. The
region should remain dry through the day before showers and storms
associated with a cold front move into the Delta by around
22-00Z. These storms/rain and front will progress south and east
through the late evening into the overnight hours, likely exiting
the Pine Belt by around 09-12Z. Storms will likely bring MVFR to
LIFR ceiling and vis restrictions, as some will also be severe
with damaging winds and hail possible. CLouds will clear from
northwest to southeast behind the front on Wednesday, allowing for
a quick return to VFR conditions. /17/28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       46  64  39  72 /  98   3   0   0
Meridian      48  64  36  71 /  86  11   0   0
Vicksburg     46  62  40  72 /  98   1   0   0
Hattiesburg   53  68  39  73 /  83  17   0   0
Natchez       47  62  39  73 /  95   3   0   0
Greenville    42  58  38  68 /  96   0   0   1
Greenwood     42  60  38  69 /  98   0   0   1

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Wind Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-019-025-
     026-034-035.

LA...None.
AR...Wind Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074-075.

&&

15

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
258 PM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018

ARZ074-075-MSZ018-019-025-026-034-035-042000-
Ashley-Chicot-Bolivar-Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Washington-
Humphreys-
258 PM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, central Mississippi, north central Mississippi, and
northwest Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Wednesday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Enhanced
TIMING...Tonight

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Tonight

Severe thunderstorms capable of producing mainly damaging wind
gusts, but also hail up to golfball size, and a few tornadoes are
expected beginning late this afternoon and continuing into this
evening.

Before and after thunderstorms move into the area, windy
conditions are anticipated through this afternoon through tonight
across the region. Winds will gust up to 40 to 45 mph at times.
This may knock down vulnerable trees and make travel difficult for
high profile vehicles.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image1.png)

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday night through Monday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region tonight.

MSZ027>033-036-042000-
Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Holmes-
258 PM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, north central Mississippi, and northeast
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Wednesday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Enhanced
TIMING...Tonight

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Tonight

Severe thunderstorms capable of producing mainly damaging wind
gusts, but also hail up to golfball size, and a few tornadoes are
expected this evening.

Before and after thunderstorms move into the area, windy
conditions are anticipated through this afternoon through tonight
across the region. Winds will gust up to 40 to 45 mph at times.
This may knock down vulnerable trees and make travel difficult for
high profile vehicles.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image1.png)

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday night through Monday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region tonight.

LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ037>063-042000-
Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-Madison LA-
Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Attala-Winston-Noxubee-
Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-Warren-
Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah-Simpson-
Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-Lawrence-
258 PM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, central Mississippi, south central Mississippi, and
southwest Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Wednesday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Tonight

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Tonight

Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts,
hail up to golfball size, and a few tornadoes are possible
beginning late this afternoon across northeast Louisiana and the
Mississippi Delta, before moving south and east through tonight.

Before and after thunderstorms move into the area, windy
conditions are anticipated this afternoon through the most of the
nighttime hours across the region. Winds will gust in the 30 to 40
mph range at times. This may knock down vulnerable trees and make
travel difficult for high profile vehicles.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image1.png)

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday night through Monday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region tonight.

MSZ064>066-072>074-042000-
Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
258 PM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Mississippi, and southeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Wednesday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Tonight

Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts,
hail up to golfball size, and a few tornadoes are possible
beginning late this afternoon across northeast Louisiana and the
Mississippi Delta, before moving south and east through tonight.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday night through Monday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region tonight.

21

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms are expected.
Moderate...Severe storms expected with significant
 severe weather possible.
Enhanced...Severe storms expected.
Slight...Severe storms possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe storms possible.

*NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS*
Extreme...Sustained winds 50 mph or greater or wind gusts 65 mph
 or greater.
Significant...Sustained winds 40-49 mph or wind gusts 58-64 mph.
Elevated...Sustained winds 30-39 mph or wind gusts 45-57 mph.
Limited...Sustained winds 20-29 mph or wind gusts 30 to 44 mph.

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   www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/