Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1253 PM CDT Fri Sep 7 2018

.UPDATE...
Updated for 18Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion:
Mainly VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hrs. The best
chance for thunderstorms in the period will exist in the NW zones.
However, VCTS was added to a few more sites due to increasing
coverage of isolated to scattered TS this afternoon. Some showers
may stick around the NW zones overnight but most of the region
will clear after sunset.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Some shower activity associated with the remnants of Gordon is
noted by radar in our NW zones. This shower activity will continue
to spread eastward, further into our region as the morning
continues. Thunderstorm coverage will slightly increase as the
day continues and instability builds over the region. The best
chances of storms will be along and west of the MS River. The
current forecast was on track and only minor changes were needed.

Prior discussion below:

Today and tonight...

The remnants of Gordon are spinning across central Arkansas with
some showers rotating around this low just to the west of our
forecast area. Some showers may slip into portions of southeast
Arkansas through this morning given such close proximity. Elsewhere,
dry conditions have finally prevailed overnight but low clouds and
fog have moved into the region. This should improve through the
morning and afternoon.

As the remnants of Gordon will remain generally across Arkansas
today, it will help to generate additional rain and storm bands
across the region today. This will mainly be across the western
portion of the ArkLaMiss as drier air will move into the eastern
portions of the forecast area. Some of these storms could have heavy
downpours given PW values are to be around 2 inches or greater in
the west today. Will not include anything in the HWO about flooding,
but if any training occurs or enough heavy rainfall, this might
bring some localized issues.

It looks like Gordon will finally move on from our region as the sfc
low will start to become absorbed by the shortwave moving through
the region later tonight and start to move off to the north. That
being said, some rain may linger into tonight in the west where the
better moisture will reside. /28/

Saturday through the end of the week...

Saturday: Saturday will offer a slight reprieve from the recent
streak of above average rain chances - at least over the eastern
half of the area. As the mid/upper ridge axis aligns over the area,
a drier airmass will build westward during the day, limiting
rain chances generally east of I-55. Meanwhile, an approaching
shortwave trough and cold front will provide forcing for greater
precip coverage along and west of the Mississippi River, where rich
moisture will also remain. These mechanisms will keep rain chances
up through Saturday night in these areas as well.

Sunday through Wednesday: Though the shortwave will continue
northeastward beyond our region, longer wave upper troughing will
develop over the first half of next week across the central CONUS.
The approaching front will stall near or just north of the area as
it becomes parallel to southwesterly upper flow. The 00z GFS was
most ambitious with the front making greater headway south of the I-
20 corridor, providing an influx of PW nearing just an inch and
dewpoints in the low 60s for the ArkLaMiss Delta. Regardless of the
exact location the front stalls, its presence will keep rain and
storm chances above average across the bulk of the area throughout
this time frame. Our forecast QPF from Saturday through Wednesday
will average 1"-2" across the area, but locally higher amounts will
be observed in convection. Should any of this coincide with one of
the areas that was inundated in recent days, flooding isn't out of
the question. At this stage, however, our forecast QPF and
confidence on heavier rain over any particular area are too low to
warrant mention of a flood threat in the HWO/graphics. This
potential should be monitored over the next few days, however.

There is decreasing model agreement on the evolution of the upper
level pattern heading into the end of the week, but with the stalled
front remaining nearby, chance POPs were maintained through the end
of the forecast period. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       88  72  90  71 /  26  21  25  39
Meridian      89  71  90  71 /  21   7  17  18
Vicksburg     89  72  90  72 /  37  39  47  46
Hattiesburg   88  71  90  71 /  30  13  20  14
Natchez       88  72  89  71 /  28  22  45  39
Greenville    87  72  86  70 /  56  36  60  57
Greenwood     87  72  87  72 /  38  31  45  53

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

JPM3

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
409 AM CDT Fri Sep 7 2018

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
080915-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Bolivar-
Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-
Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-
Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-
Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah-
Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-
Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
409 AM CDT Fri Sep 7 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central
Mississippi, and south central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Thursday.

28

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

No short term hazards expected.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Tropical page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/srh/tropical?office=jan
National Hurricane Center Home Page...
   https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
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Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
213 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2018

LAZ008-009-MSZ040-072000-
East Carroll LA-West Carroll LA-Issaquena MS-
213 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CARROLL...EASTERN WEST
CARROLL PARISHES IN NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND NORTHWESTERN ISSAQUENA
COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM CDT...

At 213 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking strong thunderstorms
along a line extending from near Gassoway to near Monticello. These
storms were nearly stationary.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Lake Providence, Transylvania, Alsatia, Millikin, Shelburn, Gassoway
and Kilbourne.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3300 9133 3301 9130 3301 9124 3300 9117
      3301 9116 3301 9112 3300 9112 3259 9116
      3260 9141
TIME...MOT...LOC 1913Z 242DEG 3KT 3299 9127 3265 9135

NF