Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
328 PM CDT Thu Aug 9 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Friday:

Showers and embedded thunderstorms have been most numerous so far
today in an axis running from northeastern LA ENE into the Golden
Triangle region in the northeastern corner of the forecast area.
Weak moisture convergence and advection in this zone ahead of an
incoming upper trough has generally been the mechanism to focus this
activity while outflow from thunderstorms northwest of our region
last night helped provide the trigger for convective initiation.
Outside of this mentioned axis, showers and storms have been harder
to come by this afternoon. Fortunately, most of the storms in our
region today have been reluctant to show much organization, despite
low to mid layer bulk shear values of 15 to 25 kts.

Those who have been left out of the helpful downpours so far today
need not yet panic. The upper trough feature now aiding in
concentrated rainfall over a portion of our CWA will not be getting
solidly east of our region until late tomorrow and thus will still
be enhancing rainfall chances for the entire region through that
time period. In fact, we have introduce a LIMITED flash flood risk
for tonight running through the heart of the region, generally in
the same areas that have been receiving rainfall so far today. The
rain amounts today have not been very heavy, but tonight moisture
convergence and advection should increase with low to deep layer
shear vectors suggestive potential training convection. The exact
location of the heavier rain corridor tonight is uncertain, but
there is decent confidence at some isolated areas could receive 1 to
3 inches total in a short amount of time, which is enough to warrant
some flooding concerns. Once again, the orientation of shear vectors
tonight, along with waning overnight instability, do not suggest
more than low potential for severe thunderstorms.

The specifics of how convection evolves tomorrow will be very
dependent on the details of what transpires tonight. Most likely
scenario is that outflow from overnight storms will progress
southeast to enhance convective development over southern and
southeastern portions of the Arklamiss tomorrow afternoon.
Otherwise, leftover showers and storms could plague locations over
central zones in the morning hours before the afternoon gives way to
partly sunny skies and a 20 to 30 percent coverage of showers and
storms. Expect clouds and showers around tomorrow to generally limit
highs from the upper 80s to near 90 degrees. As for hazardous
weather potential tomorrow, the main signal for potentially
problematic rainfall looks to ebb tomorrow morning and shear and
instability combinations do not look to be enough tomorrow to worry
about more than a very isolated severe storm. However, one caveat to
latter is that both the heavy rain and severe threats tomorrow are
not zero and we cannot rule out an adjustment to the current
assessment over the next shift or two. /BB/

Saturday through next Thursday...Models continue to be consistent
with the pattern over the region. The large mid/upper ridge over the
Rockies will morph as it weakens and we see a more complex pattern
in our region of the general long wave trough get more "cut off".
The result will be our region remaining in the weakness and
supporting better than avg rain/storm chances for Sat. By Sunday and
into Monday, the "cut off" nature of the pattern gets more
pronounced and our region actually will be situated more in the
short wave ridge area as we see mid/upper level heights build some.
Moisture will remain on the high side Sunday and all the guidance
supports chance/likely PoPs for another day. By Monday, the effects
of the ridging will be more pronounced and the developing subsidence
aids in lowering moisture through the atmosphere. This will result
in less precip and the result will be lower PoPs each of the days
into mid week.

Concerning temps, MinTs will remain steady and hold around normal
(70-73) through Thursday. Concerning MaxTs, more clouds and better
precip potential will support slightly below avg highs (88-91) for
Sat-Sun. However, the trade off for drier air and lower rain chances
will mean warming conditions into mid week. This warming trend will
be relative and basically will get us back to typical readings for
mid August. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion:

Scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms will be around TAF
sites in GWO/HKS/JAN/CBM/GTR/MEI/NMM through the afternoon with
still an outside shot through that time of being affected at
GLH/PIB/HBG. Of course any storms directly over the airport will
be capable of brief IFR conditions and brief gusty winds up to 30
kts. After this afternoon storms may continue or re-develop in the
vicinity of GWO/GLH/GTR/CBM/HKS/JAN overnight into early tomorrow
morning. Tomorrow, much of the convection should shift a little
south to affect more of east-central to southeastern MS. Outside
of storms anticipate light winds generally from the west with some
more widespread MVFR ceilings possible late tonight through Friday
morning. /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       72  89  72  90 /  41  48  37  51
Meridian      73  89  72  92 /  31  53  33  40
Vicksburg     72  89  72  90 /  45  48  36  52
Hattiesburg   74  88  72  90 /  26  59  40  53
Natchez       74  89  71  89 /  31  48  38  60
Greenville    70  90  70  89 /  53  34  25  32
Greenwood     71  90  71  90 /  66  46  28  28

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

CME/BB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
226 PM CDT Thu Aug 9 2018

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023-MSZ025-027>047-101930-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Leflore-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-
Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-
Winston-Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-
Kemper-Warren-
226 PM CDT Thu Aug 9 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, and north
central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Friday

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Tonight

Flash flooding will be possible tonight as scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms produce locally heavy rain. Rainfall
amounts could range from 1 to 3 inches in a short amount of time in
isolated locations.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday night through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Wednesday.

LAZ024>026-MSZ018-019-026-048>066-072>074-101930-
Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Bolivar-Sunflower-Grenada-Hinds-Rankin-
Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah-Simpson-Smith-Jasper-
Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-Lawrence-
Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
226 PM CDT Thu Aug 9 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, central Mississippi, east central Mississippi, north
central Mississippi, northwest Mississippi, and south central
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Friday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday night through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Wednesday.

50

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*FLOODING*
Extreme...Confident in significant flooding.
Significant...Significant flooding possible.
Elevated...Confident in flooding.
Limited...Flooding possible.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Tropical page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/srh/tropical?office=jan
National Hurricane Center Home Page...
   https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR FLOODING ISSUES...

Current Watches and Warnings...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe_HeavyRain

Observed Precipitation Images...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/precipmaps

River Forecast Center...
   https://www.weather.gov/lmrfc/
Significant River Flood Outlook...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html
Day 1 through 3 Excessive Rainfall...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml
Excessive Rainfall Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpferd.html
Day 1 through 7 QPF...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml
QPF Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfpfd.html

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
118 PM CDT THU AUG 9 2018

MSZ047-048-091845-
Warren MS-Hinds MS-
118 PM CDT THU AUG 9 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN WARREN AND
NORTHWESTERN HINDS COUNTIES UNTIL 145 PM CDT...

At 117 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
over Youngton, or 15 miles east of Redwood, moving east at 10 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Brownsville around 145 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3255 9059 3253 9058 3253 9055 3251 9055
      3250 9052 3252 9052 3252 9050 3254 9048
      3254 9047 3257 9045 3249 9045 3249 9043
      3233 9038 3231 9070 3249 9075
TIME...MOT...LOC 1817Z 256DEG 11KT 3242 9064

BYB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
138 PM CDT THU AUG 9 2018

MSZ031-039-091915-
Lowndes MS-Noxubee MS-
138 PM CDT THU AUG 9 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN NOXUBEE AND SOUTHERN
LOWNDES COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM CDT...

At 137 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
over Crawford, or 17 miles southeast of Starkville, moving east at
20 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Brooksville around 145 PM CDT.
  Deerbrook around 200 PM CDT.
  Bigbee Valley around 215 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3317 8832 3320 8872 3329 8872 3329 8867
      3335 8867 3341 8832 3324 8831
TIME...MOT...LOC 1837Z 266DEG 20KT 3326 8864

BYB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
352 PM CDT THU AUG 9 2018

MSZ044-045-092145-
Neshoba MS-Leake MS-
352 PM CDT THU AUG 9 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL LEAKE AND
NORTHWESTERN NESHOBA COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM CDT...

At 350 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
over Edinburg, moving east at 20 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Edinburg around 355 PM CDT.
  Pearl River around 415 PM CDT.
  Philadelphia around 425 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3274 8940 3283 8942 3289 8916 3271 8913
TIME...MOT...LOC 2050Z 265DEG 16KT 3279 8936

22