Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
410 PM CDT Wed Aug 8 2018

.DISCUSSION...
The rest of today through tomorrow...

The ArkLaMiss has remained relatively dry so far this afternoon
as diurnal storms are expected to have a later initiation time and
less coverage than days previous. A disturbance embedded in upper
NW flow currently located in the Southern Plains will continue to
track towards the lower MS River Valley tonight. Storms will
continue to fire along and near the frontal boundary associated
with this disturbance as it approaches the NW portions of the
ArkLaMiss. A strong storm or two could reach SE Arkansas, NE
LA, or the MS Delta this evening while the atmosphere is still
supportive enough to maintain storms that will cross southern
Arkansas or extreme northern LA. The main threat with storms in
this region will be damaging winds. The approaching boundary will
serve as a focus for storm and shower initiation overnight and into
tomorrow as it moves into the ArkLaMiss. The best overall coverage
of precip looks to be tomorrow morning into early tomorrow
afternoon along and north of I-20. Temperatures tomorrow should
remain below normal in in areas that are impacted by rain and
cloud cover, with better chances of reaching their early August
norms in counties in SE MS.

For Thursday night through next Wednesday...The evolving pattern
will continue to be one of an amplifying ridge over the Rockies
and a lingering trough over the E Conus with an attendant axis
stretching down into our region. The result will be a continue
unsettled period with solid rain/storm chances. While guidance has
been fairly consistent on the wetter type patter for the Thu-Sat
periods, they have backed off some on the potential for heavier
amounts and even on the higher end coverage to a point. The
culprit looks to be less in the way of low level response to the
mid/upper wave which is resulting in less convergence/moisture
transport than prev days runs. There is also the element of storm
evolution which could alter things enough to keep key features
from aligning just right. With all that said, the potential for
excessive rain which would lead into flooding, is lower and we've
decided to remove the threat for the HWO. We will continue to
monitor closely as something on the storm scale could alter things
to become more favorable, as we near those periods and become
more into the HRRR and hi-res window, things may become more
clear.

Overall, rain chances Fri into Sat will be in the likely range.
This activity will also aid in keep temps on the below avg side.
Likely rain chances will linger into Sunday as well but have more
of a diurnal nature to them. With that, temps look to be a tad
warmer and closer to 90.

For the Mon-Wed periods, we look to see ridging build some over
the area which will support less in the way of rain chances. With
this we will also see temps return to more seasonal readings for
mid Aug with a steady warming trend each day. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion:
VFR conditions and a developing Cu field will be present in the
first few hours of the 18Z TAF package. Expect isolated
thunderstorms to begin to develop across the region as we get
closer to 21Z. The best coverage of storms will be near the NW
and SE sites. Storms will begin to dissipate in areas except for
the North after 00Z as a boundary begins to push towards the
region. Storms and showers will remain in the vicinity of mainly
KGLH and KGWO through the night as the boundary slowly pushes into
our region. Winds will be mainly from the SE through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       72  90  73  88 /  31  40  24  69
Meridian      71  90  73  89 /  40  40  21  70
Vicksburg     72  90  73  89 /  29  43  22  70
Hattiesburg   72  92  73  90 /  20  26  17  68
Natchez       72  90  73  88 /  18  27  19  69
Greenville    71  87  72  87 /  53  57  62  63
Greenwood     71  87  71  87 /  50  56  47  66

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

JPM3/CME

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
345 PM CDT Wed Aug 8 2018

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
092045-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Bolivar-
Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-
Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-
Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-
Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah-
Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-
Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
345 PM CDT Wed Aug 8 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central
Mississippi, and south central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Thursday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday night through Tuesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Tuesday.

36

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

No short term hazards expected.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Tropical page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/srh/tropical?office=jan
National Hurricane Center Home Page...
   https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

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