Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1233 PM CDT Tue Aug 7 2018

.UPDATE...
Updated for 18Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion:
VFR conditions will prevail for most areas today. Some showers and
storms are developing this afternoon and could affect a TAF site.
Did not include this for now and will rely on future amendments.
Any storms will diminish through the evening. /28/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Another day of warm temperatures coupled with scattered afternoon
and evening showers and storms as heights remain high over the
region. This will lead to highs in the lower to mid 90s and heat
indices around 100 to 105 degrees. It is possible that some
locations in the eastern part of the forecast area could reach
105-107 degrees and the heat advisory will remain in tact. As
storms develop this afternoon, some could be strong as enough
instability will combine with sufficient moisture(PW off the 12Z
sounding was around 1.7 inches) and good lapse rate could bring
some small hail and gusty winds. These storms will diminish this
evening. /28/

Prior discussion below:

Today and Tonight:

Water vapor imagery early this morning shows the mid-level low
pressure system departing southwestward from our region, leaving
our forecast area primarily under the southeastern CONUS ridge.
The departing low will likely help to initiate some thunderstorm
activity over southern Louisiana today, which may then push
northward into our area by later this afternoon. Some hi-res
models indicate the potential for sea breeze storms farther east
along the Gulf Coast to work their way north by late afternoon as
well. This chance for showers and thunderstorms will be focused
mainly south of the Highway 84 corridor, however more isolated
showers and storms can't be ruled out elsewhere across the
ArkLaMiss region this afternoon.

Max temperatures are expected to be 1 or 2 degrees higher today,
which when combined with dewpoints in the low 70s, will result in
heat index values around 105 degrees for some areas. The better
potential for 105 to 108 heat indices will be in far eastern
Mississippi from mid-morning through the afternoon, so a Heat
Advisory has been issued for elevated heat stress concerns through
6 PM. Elsewhere, heat indices may briefly reach the 105 mark but
will pose a more limited threat for heat stress. /NF/

Wednesday through Monday:

The synoptic pattern across the CONUS will feature an amplifying
ridge over the Intermountain West, Hurricane John out over the
far Eastern Pacific Ocean, and upper-level trough centered over
the eastern CONUS. The resulting northwesterly to northerly flow
over our region will push a frontal boundary into the Mid-South
that looks to stall out somewhere around the region late this week.
Deeper moisture pooling along the front will result in some
potential for heavy rainfall each day through the end of the week,
with disturbances helping to gradually push the better rain
chances and amounts farther south across our area through the
weekend. Model agreement is fairly high regarding the overall
pattern evolution, so have kept POPs in the likely range (70-80%)
through Friday.

A developing cutoff low over the Midwest/Great Lakes by late in
the weekend should help to keep the stationary front and rain
chances around our region into early next week. With the increased
rain chances and lowering heights aloft, expect temperatures to
be near normal to a few degrees cooler than normal by late this
week. For now, have held off on including any mention of flash
flooding in the Hazardous Weather Outlook, as the frontal boundary
will need to be in our area to see an increased flooding
potential from any training storms. The front could dip far enough
south into our area by Friday, but there are some uncertainties.
Regardless of this potential, some storms throughout the week will
be capable of producing typical summertime heavy downpours and
localized flooding concerns. /NF/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       93  73  92  73 /  17  14  33  22
Meridian      94  74  93  73 /  19  18  36  21
Vicksburg     93  74  93  74 /  19  14  25  23
Hattiesburg   95  73  93  73 /  30  17  36  14
Natchez       92  74  92  73 /  28  14  28  14
Greenville    92  73  90  73 /  16  17  58  60
Greenwood     93  73  91  73 /  17  17  55  57

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for MSZ031-039-046-052-
     058.

LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

28

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
145 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2018

LAZ024-026-MSZ060-071915-
Catahoula LA-Concordia LA-Adams MS-
145 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL CONCORDIA...SOUTHWESTERN
CATAHOULA PARISHES IN NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWESTERN ADAMS
COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM CDT...

At 144 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
near Acme, or 11 miles southeast of Larto, moving north at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  New Era around 150 PM CDT.
  Monterey and Deer Park around 210 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3104 9165 3104 9172 3116 9170 3118 9168
      3120 9170 3130 9191 3127 9195 3123 9192
      3124 9201 3151 9201 3143 9143 3132 9145
      3128 9150 3124 9148 3121 9152 3124 9154
      3123 9157 3113 9163 3104 9156 3098 9166
TIME...MOT...LOC 1844Z 198DEG 25KT 3128 9174

DC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
258 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2018

LAZ024-072030-
Catahoula LA-
258 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN CATAHOULA PARISH
UNTIL 330 PM CDT...

At 258 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
near Sherwood, or 22 miles southeast of Columbia, moving north at 25
mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Sherwood around 305 PM CDT.
  Enterprise around 310 PM CDT.
  Rosefield around 315 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Harrisonburg.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3193 9201 3193 9191 3197 9190 3195 9184
      3194 9185 3192 9182 3192 9180 3189 9180
      3189 9178 3188 9178 3171 9174 3167 9182
      3165 9201
TIME...MOT...LOC 1958Z 163DEG 21KT 3181 9191

DC