Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1221 PM CDT Mon Aug 6 2018

.UPDATE...
Updated for 18Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion:
VFR conditions are expected through the majority of the next 24
hours. The only concern will be isolated showers and thunderstorms
through the early evening hours. The greatest chances will reside
in east MS, generally affecting MEI/GTR the most. Decided to
include VCSH in these TAFs this afternoon due to ongoing
convection in those areas already. Brief reductions to IFR
visibilities/ceilings will be possible within any of these showers
and storms. Meanwhile patchy fog cannot be ruled out tonight into
early tomorrow morning, confidence in coverage is not high enough
to warrant mention in the TAFs at this point though. /10/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Satellite imagery is now showing a broken layer of mid level
clouds covering most of the CWA this morning, as these clouds
rotate around the mid level cold core in the Delta. Heading into
this afternoon, expect today's convection to initiate over
eastern MS and over southern Louisiana. The activity in southern
Louisiana will move northward, seabreeze-style, into our CWA by
later this afternoon. With all of this activity today, expect
isolated showers and thunderstorms. Can't rule out a strong storm
or two, especially among the seabreeze powered activity.
Convection should die down this evening around sunset. /10/

Prior discussion below:

Today and Tonight: Satellite imagery this morning showing a narrow
area of warm advection/ascent over north central MS associated with
quasi-persistent mid level cold core over the northern Delta region.
This feature will drift south today and while the models are not
that excited about much precip, feel better lapse rates may promote
a slightly better coverage of afternoon convection. Otherwise,
models seem to agree that sea breeze convection will get going by
late morning over the LA coast and drift into the southwest portions
by late afternoon, diminishing during the early evening.

Continued slow mid level ridging, despite the cutoff cold core
feature, will result in slightly warmer temperatures than yesterday.
Dewpoints mixing out into the upper 60s over much of the area will
keep heat indices from reaching much above 100, despite maximums in
the mid 90s./26/

Tuesday through Sunday: Shower and thunderstorm coverage is
expected to be fairly low again on Tuesday due to the continued
influence of a mid-level ridge of high pressure over the region.
Residual moisture and a weakness in the ridge will leave a slight
chance for showers and storms across the region, however. It still
looks like dewpoint temperatures may mix out to around 70 to 73
degrees on Tuesday, so resultant heat index values will mostly be
below 105 degrees. If moisture ends up being a little higher
during the day, a few locations could reach the 105 mark.

For Wednesday through the weekend, the synoptic pattern
across the CONUS will feature an amplifying ridge over the
Intermountain West, what will likely be Hurricane John out over the
far the far Eastern Pacific Ocean, and upper-level trough centered
over the eastern CONUS. The resulting northwesterly to northerly
flow over our region will push a frontal boundary into the Mid-South
that looks to stall out somewhere around the region for the second
half of the week. Deeper moisture pooling along the front will
result in some potential for heavy rainfall each day through the end
of the week, with disturbances helping to gradually push the better
rain chances and amounts farther south across our area through the
weekend. Model agreement is fairly high regarding the overall
pattern evolution, so have kept POPs in the likely range (70-80%)
through Saturday. A developing cutoff low over the Midwest/Great
Lakes by late in the weekend should help to keep the stationary
front and rain chances around our region into early next week. With
the increased rain chances and lowering heights aloft, expect
temperatures to be near normal to a few degrees cooler than
normal by late this week. /NF/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       94  73  94  73 /  19  16  17   9
Meridian      94  73  96  73 /  22   7  19  10
Vicksburg     94  73  94  74 /  15  13  17  11
Hattiesburg   94  73  94  73 /  22  17  28   7
Natchez       93  72  93  73 /  27  16  23   7
Greenville    93  73  93  73 /  15   6  17  27
Greenwood     94  73  93  73 /  15   5  17  26

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
406 AM CDT Mon Aug 6 2018

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
070915-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Bolivar-
Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-
Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-
Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-
Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah-
Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-
Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
406 AM CDT Mon Aug 6 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central
Mississippi, and south central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Sunday.

26

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

No short term hazards expected.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Tropical page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/srh/tropical?office=jan
National Hurricane Center Home Page...
   https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
121 PM CDT MON AUG 6 2018

MSZ032-033-061900-
Oktibbeha MS-Choctaw MS-
121 PM CDT MON AUG 6 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN CHOCTAW AND WESTERN
OKTIBBEHA COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM CDT...

At 121 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
near Sherwood, or 11 miles west of Starkville, moving northeast at 5
mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Longview around 135 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Sturgis.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3330 8895 3329 8899 3329 8906 3343 8919
      3353 8911 3353 8909 3355 8909 3356 8908
      3356 8893 3345 8886
TIME...MOT...LOC 1821Z 231DEG 6KT 3347 8902

DC

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