Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
610 PM CDT Fri Jul 6 2018

.UPDATE...
Updated for 00Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF discussion:
VFR conditions will prevail through the majority of the TAF
period. Scattered SHRA/TSRA will cause brief categorical
reductions, mainly due to visibility, through this evening. A
brief period of MVFR ceilings or visiblities are possible around
daybreak Saturday morning at GLH and GWO. /17/

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Saturday: A cold front is now pushing southward across
the Ohio Valley this afternoon, with a line of convection ongoing
well ahead of it from NE Arkansas eastward through the Tennessee
Valley. Across our area, routine scattered diurnal convection has
begun to break out. The airmass across most of the area is not
particularly favorable for severe storms. However, a somewhat more
favorable environment exists just to the north across parts of the
Mid South, where a few severe storms have already occurred this
afternoon along the aforementioned line of convection. Though 0-3 km
shear vectors better favor east-to-west moving storms this evening,
with the composite outflow along this line surging southward toward
the Delta, there is some potential for one of these stronger storms
to make it into the Delta late this afternoon into this evening.
Thus, we'll add mention to the HWO/graphics of a marginal threat for
severe storms in this area. These storms will likely lose steam
before approaching the I-20 corridor. Even with help from forcing
with the approaching front, expect a big dropoff in rain coverage
overnight with the loss of instability.

As the front stalls just north of the area on Saturday with
lingering boundaries from convection today/tonight, greater coverage
of showers and thunderstorms is expected throughout the day. The
atmosphere remains rather soupy with PW near 2", so locally heavy
rainfall will be possible. However, storm motions are expected to be
good enough to limit the threat for flooding, so this won't be
mentioned in the HWO at this time. The increased prevalence of
clouds and rain should help hold daytime highs down in most areas,
thus limiting heat stress concerns compared to previous days. /DL/

Saturday night through mid-late week next week (Thursday): Expect
considerable diurnal convective precipitation coverage through
the weekend with near to slightly below normal temperatures. As
mid-level ridging building eastward into the mid-upper
Mississippi Valley & Great Lakes, our area will remain mostly
under the southern fringe of this. This persistent pattern will
cause a weak front to hang up over the region with a few subtle
westward moving shortwaves tracking through and providing an
impetus for convection. With increasing low level convergence,
high moisture ~2+ inches, & light flow & weak Corfidi vectors,
expect some heavy downpours to remain possible. Flash flooding
can't be ruled out, but due to the scattered nature in convection
& plenty of green vegetation, there is not enough confidence to
put in the HWO/graphics. Severe potential looks low due to weak
lapse rates & shear but can't rule out an isolated stronger storm
or so. Due to increase rain & precip, temperatures will be held in
check slightly below normals, which should provide some brief
relief in the heat.

As we move into next week, ridging will again build north of the
area but potentially a little more increasing heights into our area,
especially by mid-late portions of the week. This will help to
provide more subsidence & convection to become more diurnal through
early-mid portions of next week. In addition, expect increasing
thermal profiles & decreasing clouds, so temperatures could rebound
near to slightly above normal & heat indices & heat stress will
potentially become a concern again as well. /DC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       72  89  72  89 /  39  61  59  66
Meridian      72  90  72  89 /  56  68  65  63
Vicksburg     73  89  72  89 /  24  63  60  69
Hattiesburg   70  88  71  88 /  35  79  68  70
Natchez       71  89  71  87 /  28  80  73  70
Greenville    72  87  72  88 /  35  56  51  57
Greenwood     72  87  72  88 /  46  58  54  55

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
821 PM CDT Fri Jul 6 2018

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
080130-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Bolivar-
Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-
Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-
Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-
Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah-
Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-
Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
821 PM CDT Fri Jul 6 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central
Mississippi, and south central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Saturday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday night through Thursday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Thursday.

21

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

No short term hazards expected.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Tropical page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/srh/tropical?office=jan
National Hurricane Center Home Page...
   https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
710 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     TSTM WND DMG     KOSCIUSKO               33.06N 89.59W
07/06/2018                   ATTALA             MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            A COUPLE TREES DOWN AROUND THE CITY OF
            KOSCIUSKO.

0600 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 E PROVIDENCE          33.04N 89.36W
07/06/2018                   ATTALA             MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TWO TREES DOWN ALONG HIGHWAY 14.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
712 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2018

MSZ050-051-070045-
Scott MS-Newton MS-
712 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WESTERN NEWTON AND EASTERN SCOTT
COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM CDT...

At 712 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking strong thunderstorms
along a line extending from near Steele to near Stratton. Movement
was south at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Steele around 715 PM CDT.
  Forest and Conehatta around 735 PM CDT.
  Newton and Lawrence around 745 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Lake and Sebastopol.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3230 8909 3230 8955 3257 8946 3258 8912
      3257 8903
TIME...MOT...LOC 0012Z 021DEG 18KT 3245 8941 3254 8913

CME

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
719 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2018

MSZ059-070045-
Jefferson MS-
719 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WESTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY UNTIL
745 PM CDT...

At 719 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
over Fayette, or 20 miles northeast of Natchez, moving west at 20
mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Stampley around 725 PM CDT.
  Church Hill around 745 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3175 9129 3175 9127 3176 9126 3177 9128
      3185 9123 3177 9102 3161 9105 3161 9115
      3163 9115 3163 9123 3165 9127 3166 9127
      3167 9130 3170 9129 3172 9131
TIME...MOT...LOC 0019Z 101DEG 16KT 3171 9109

CME

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
802 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PHEBA                   33.59N 88.95W
07/06/2018                   CLAY               MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN IN PHEBA.

0425 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 E UNA                 33.80N 88.75W
07/06/2018                   CLAY               MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN ON BRAND-UNA RD.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
821 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2018

LAZ023-070145-
Franklin LA-
821 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL FRANKLIN PARISH UNTIL
845 PM CDT...

At 821 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
near Crowville, or near Winnsboro, moving southwest at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Winnsboro around 835 PM CDT.
  Liddieville around 845 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3209 9190 3209 9187 3212 9187 3213 9188
      3212 9188 3214 9190 3217 9189 3218 9184
      3221 9182 3232 9162 3214 9155 3197 9188
      3197 9189 3208 9190
TIME...MOT...LOC 0121Z 056DEG 24KT 3221 9164

CME