Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
725 PM CDT Wed Jul 4 2018

.UPDATE...
Updated for 00Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF discussion:
Much of the shower and thunderstorm activity has diminished across
the area. Expected the remaining storms to continue to track west
an fall apart with only a few showers lingering after sunset. HBG
will continue to be impacted through the next hour or so with
thunderstorms nearby, north and south. Not confident in fog
development overnight, so left it out at this time. Looks like
there may be some stratus moving into southern zones, so kept low
clouds at HBG from 10-14z. Otherwise, went VFR conditions after 3z
and brought VCSH/VCTS back in the afternoon at most sites.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Through tomorrow afternoon:

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms have developed in
the last few hours along an axis running generally from north to
south through the heart of the region. Moisture convergence and
advection in a weakly capped environment containing surface-based
CAPE values ranging from 2500 to 3500 j/kg has largely been the
triggering mechanism with low to mid layer easterly shear of 15 to
25 knots weakly organizing westerly-moving thunderstorm clusters.
Expect this trend to continue through the remainder of the
afternoon as thunderstorms increase from the east in western
zones and eventual increase from out of AL into eastern MS. Not
everybody will get wet but there should be enough activity around
the region through early evening to let a majority of people
outdoors at least hear some rumbles. As mentioned this morning,
the working CAPE values peaking over 3000 j/kg, in tandem with the
low to mid layer wind shear, will induce some strong storms with
gusty winds and a severe storm cannot be ruled out through early
this evening. Coverage of severe storm potential looks too low to
include in the HWO or graphics.

During the evening we anticipate the best storm coverage to shift
toward southern zones (along and south of the Highway 84 corridor)
around and shortly after sunset, although isolated storms will
still remain possible elsewhere at least until mid evening.
Generally expecting all activity to have dissipated before
midnight but an exception could be around far southeastern MS as
incoming energy from another upstream easterly disturbance could
provide some synoptic help to linger showers/storms there longer.

Tomorrow, the previously-mentioned easterly tropospheric
disturbance will move to our south along and coast, in similar
fashion to a few days ago. The best synoptic lift and moisture
convergence with system should remain to our south and southwest
tomorrow, but we still expect scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms to take shape in the midday to afternoon hours over
southwestern zones. Elsewhere, midday to afternoon showers and
storms should generally range from 20 to 40 percent coverage as
drier mid level air working around the backside of the easterly
waves should prove not the most favorable for lots of convection.
Expect temperatures generally ranging from the low to mid 90s
again, although some spots in southwestern zones might have a hard
time reaching 90 degrees due to mentioned clouds/precip. We will
continue a mention of a LIMITED dangerous heat threat in the
HWO/graphics in basically northwestern zones where the combination
of midday to afternoon temperatures and humidity could deliver
heat index values briefly peaking near 105 degrees. /BB/

Thursday night through next week:

With the large mid-level ridge dominating the weather over much of
the interior US, hot conditions continue for a large chunk of the
population. A cold front originating from the mid-level trough over
eastern Canada will drop through the Ohio Valley on Friday and bring
rain and then drier conditions to those behind the front. As this
front drops down close to our CWA though, the energy from the front
will begin to wane as it battles the strong ridge just to our west.
This system will bring increased rain chances on Friday, and even
more so into the weekend, as the front slips slowly south through
the CWA and gets hung up along and sticks around the Gulf Coast
through early next week.

Looking at severe storm parameters, the best chance for severe
storms at this time looks to be on Friday when the storms fire along
the front and move south into our CWA in the evening. Hindering them
will be the lack of heating as they move in after 00Z along with
weak lapse rates. On Saturday and Sunday, PWs will increase to above
2 inches throughout the region and with so much moisture available,
storms are likely to be pretty efficient rainfall producers. Flow
will be somewhat weak and localized heavy rainfall will be possible.
Being in the middle of summer though, soils can take a pretty good
dumping of rainfall in a short time before they start to flood so
this should not be a big concern. Of course, with the increase in
rain chances this weekend comes a slight decrease in day time high
temperatures as well. Highs in the upper 80s will be common this
weekend and early next week.

The ridge shifts eastward next week and by Tuesday will be centered
over the upper Mississippi Valley. And with increased heights, come
increased temperatures and decreased pops. The major global models
differ in this time frame in that the Euro shows the stalled front
sticking around through much of the week while the GFS dissipates it
early next week as the ridge builds overhead. Either way, the heat
will increase and highs will likely be back to near normal (in the
lower 90s). /10/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       72  92  72  92 /  23  23  12  49
Meridian      73  92  72  92 /  10  19   8  49
Vicksburg     73  94  73  93 /  23  34  21  28
Hattiesburg   73  91  71  91 /  33  37  36  46
Natchez       72  91  72  91 /  48  56  28  33
Greenville    73  94  74  92 /  22  31  26  38
Greenwood     74  93  74  91 /  20  26  27  50

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
654 PM CDT WED JUL 4 2018

LAZ008-009-015-016-050030-
Madison LA-Richland LA-East Carroll LA-West Carroll LA-
654 PM CDT WED JUL 4 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN EAST CARROLL...
NORTHWESTERN MADISON...NORTHEASTERN RICHLAND AND SOUTHWESTERN WEST
CARROLL PARISHES UNTIL 730 PM CDT...

At 654 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
over Warden, or 13 miles east of Rayville, moving west at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Holly Ridge around 715 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Epps.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3264 9120 3240 9121 3241 9164 3265 9164
TIME...MOT...LOC 2354Z 089DEG 12KT 3252 9154

17

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
659 PM CDT WED JUL 4 2018

MSZ061-062-050030-
Lincoln MS-Franklin MS-
659 PM CDT WED JUL 4 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN LINCOLN AND EAST
CENTRAL FRANKLIN COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM CDT...

At 659 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
over West Lincoln, or 9 miles southwest of Brookhaven, moving west at
15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Center Point around 715 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3154 9048 3143 9048 3138 9067 3160 9066
TIME...MOT...LOC 2359Z 089DEG 12KT 3149 9057

17

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
717 PM CDT WED JUL 4 2018

MSZ065-066-073-074-050045-
Jones MS-Covington MS-Lamar MS-Forrest MS-
717 PM CDT WED JUL 4 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN FORREST...
SOUTHEASTERN COVINGTON...NORTHEASTERN LAMAR AND SOUTHWESTERN JONES
COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM CDT...

At 717 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
over Sanford, or 9 miles north of West Hattiesburg, moving west at 15
mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern
Forrest...southeastern Covington...northeastern Lamar and
southwestern Jones Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3152 8928 3128 8924 3127 8951 3155 8952
TIME...MOT...LOC 0017Z 089DEG 12KT 3145 8942

17

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
719 PM CDT WED JUL 4 2018

MSZ026-027-050045-
Carroll MS-Grenada MS-
719 PM CDT WED JUL 4 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN CARROLL AND
SOUTHWESTERN GRENADA COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM CDT...

At 719 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
over Leflore, or 13 miles northeast of Greenwood, moving west at 15
mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Avalon around 730 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3377 8996 3360 8996 3358 9010 3360 9010
      3361 9012 3362 9011 3364 9011 3365 9010
      3367 9012 3368 9014 3378 9013
TIME...MOT...LOC 0019Z 089DEG 12KT 3367 9004

17

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
721 PM CDT WED JUL 4 2018

MSZ073-074-050100-
Lamar MS-Forrest MS-
721 PM CDT WED JUL 4 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL FORREST AND SOUTHEASTERN
LAMAR COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM CDT...

At 721 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
near Rock Hill, or 14 miles south of Hattiesburg, moving west at 15
mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Rock Hill around 740 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3101 8941 3122 8940 3119 8916 3105 8914
      3102 8915
TIME...MOT...LOC 0021Z 089DEG 12KT 3110 8925

17

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