Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1106 AM CDT Tue Jul 3 2018

.UPDATE...
Updated for morning discussion.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Made a few adjustments to the short-term forecast through tonight, mainly
to increase POPs today for areas south of I-20. With the passing
easterly shortwave along the Gulf Coast today, decent low-level
and mid-level flow should result in quicker moving showers and
storms to increase precipitation coverage. Overall thunderstorm
severity should be limited in our south-central and southwestern
counties and parishes, but enough instability could develop by
this afternoon for areas more through central MS to see a few
stronger storms develop. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary
hazard with any stronger storms this afternoon. Regional PW values
of 2+ inches will make for some heavier rainfall with stronger
storms, but current expectations are for faster storm motions to
limit flooding concerns. Precip chances diminish through this
evening. /NF/

Prior discussion below:

Today and Tonight...

Expect a much needed break from above average temperatures for
most of the ArkLaMiss today as the slow moving weak low pressure
system positioned just off the Gulf Coasts of LA and MS continues
to influence our weather in the region as it moves west. Bands of
showers and storms associated with this disturbance will continue
to develop this morning, increasing in coverage as the day
progresses. The best chances of seeing precipitation will remain
south of I-20 but the progressive nature of storms today will
lessen the threat of flash flooding. Widespread severe storms are
not expected but there will be a wind threat due to the higher
than normal low level flow existing as the disturbance moves west.
The significant SE low level flow that will develop through the
region by peak heating hours as the low moves off to the west will
help pull more Gulf moisture into the region, resulting in
significant cloud cover, thus helping keep temperatures in the mid
to upper 80s. Rain chances will begin to decrease overnight from
east to west as the low finally gets far enough west and Pwats
drop from above 2" to near 1.5".

Wednesday through Monday...

Models in agreement that mid level easterly flow regime will
continue through a good portion of the week. Multiple embedded
shortwaves will take advantage of heating and PWs around 2 inches
to give good coverages of mostly diurnal convection. Though most
areas will see rain during this period, the majority will occur in
the south where forcing will be strongest. Lack of low level
focus will keep the heaviest rainfall very localized.

By the weekend, wave moving into New England will help to recenter
ridge axis further west. As the wave digs over the eastern states,
our easterly flow pattern will be replaced by northerly flow and an
approaching surface cold front Friday night into Saturday. The GFS
brings the baroclinic zone down into the north Saturday and into
central portions Sunday then stalling. This boundary will serve to
focus convection and thus expect widespread coverages through
Monday. Will have to continue to closely monitor this situation over
the weekend as PWs at or above 2 inches ahead of the boundary will
support very heavy rainfall with the boundary focusing it over a
large area./26/

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF discussion:

A range of flight categories exist this morning through the region
ranging from IFR levels at our eastern sites to VFR/MVFR in the
west. These limiting conditions are due to a deck of low CIGs.
This deck of low CIGs continues to spread slowly west and may
impact other sites before it begins to dissipate after sunrise.
Some isolated shower activity has also developed this morning and
led to the addition of VCSH groups at each site. There is the
chance of thunderstorms developing in the vicinity of each site
by late morning into the afternoon with better chances existing
at the southern most sites. The threat of TSRA and SHRA will
diminish after 00Z. Winds will be mainly from the SE today and
could become gusty at some locations.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       87  72  92  73 /  58  17  46  22
Meridian      90  73  93  73 /  43  14  47  21
Vicksburg     88  74  93  73 /  56  22  37  23
Hattiesburg   86  72  91  72 /  77  22  57  27
Natchez       84  72  91  72 /  84  33  46  23
Greenville    89  73  93  74 /  27  16  26  21
Greenwood     90  74  93  74 /  22  13  30  20

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

JPM3/NF/26

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
431 AM CDT Tue Jul 3 2018

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
040945-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Bolivar-
Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-
Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-
Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-
Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah-
Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-
Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
431 AM CDT Tue Jul 3 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central
Mississippi, and south central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Monday.

3

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

No short term hazards expected.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Tropical page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/srh/tropical?office=jan
National Hurricane Center Home Page...
   https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
104 PM CDT TUE JUL 3 2018

MSZ056-057-066-031830-
Smith MS-Jones MS-Jasper MS-
104 PM CDT TUE JUL 3 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN JASPER...
SOUTHEASTERN SMITH AND NORTHERN JONES COUNTIES UNTIL 130 PM CDT...

At 104 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
near Laurel, moving northwest at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Moss around 115 PM CDT.
  Stringer around 130 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Soso.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3162 8913 3178 8940 3180 8940 3179 8943
      3183 8949 3203 8928 3174 8903
TIME...MOT...LOC 1804Z 133DEG 23KT 3174 8915

NF

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