Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
643 PM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018

...SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED INTO TONIGHT...

.UPDATE...
Updated for 00Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF discussion:

Gusty showers and thunderstorms are expected to race from west to
east across the region through midnight to 1 am, although they may
not entirely clear through the PIB/HBG area until 3 am or so. With
these storms anticipate westerly wind gusts up to 50 mph or more
with brief flight cat reductions down to IFR levels. Ahead of the
storms southwest winds will blow from 10 to 20 mph with a wind
shift to the northwest as the front comes through and conditions
remaining gusty. VFR conditions should prevail in all areas by mid
morning tomorrow as clouds thin and clear. However, north winds
will continue to gust up to 20 to 25 miles in all areas tomorrow
through the day. /BB/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.Tonight through Wednesday: The primary concern will be the risk of
severe weather for late this afternoon into the overnight hours.

Latest rap and satellite imagery showed an upper trough moving
through the Plains toward the Mississippi Valley. Southwest flow
aloft in flat ridging was observed across the region. On the surface
the combination of low pressure to the west northwest and high
pressure to the east was bring gusty winds mainly across the delta
region. Portions of the delta region were under a wind advisory.
Otherwise a cold front was approaching from the northwest. In the
warm sector readings were in mainly in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Area radars were picking up some convection across portions of the
ArkLaTex where weather watches were in effect.

For late this afternoon into the overnight hours severe parameter
still look favorable in the latest model runs. The cold front will
be pushing into the northwest delta by early this evening. Latest Hi-
res CAM guidance still shows a QLCS like line that will pass over
the region from late this afternoon into the overnight hours.
Looking at the favorable severe parameters vertical totals upper
20s, midlevel lapse rates around 6.5 to 7.5C, deep layer shear 40 to
55 knots, MUCAPE around 1500 J/KG. While tornadoes cannot be ruled
out, the orientation of the 0-3km shear vectors are not as
supportive for this threat. As we go through the night the
instability will weaken as the QLCS tracks east southeast which is
reflected on the CAM guidance. The primary risks will be golf ball
size, damaging winds, and possible tornadoes. SPC has an enhanced
risk across portions of the northern delta region with a slight risk
elsewhere. Also the latest CAM guidance shows the post frontal gusty
winds across the delta through through 08z. So will extend the wind
advisory for a few more hours until 08z. The cold front will exit
the region prior to dawn. PWATs will be around 1.6 to 1.7 inches
which will may bring some locally heavy down pours. Due to the
progressive nature of this system not expecting any major flooding
concerns.

For Wednesday isolated showers will depart the Pine Belt area early.
A 1025 mb surface high will filter in a cooler airmass across the
region during the day. As far as temperatures are concern cooler
lows will range from the lower 40s to the lower 50s. Highs will
range from the middle 50s northwest to the middle 60s
southeast./17/

.Wednesday night through Monday night...Cold high pressure will
build in over the area Wednesday night behind the cold front.
Temperatures overnight Will fall into the 30s, with some areas
experiencing some patchy frost. This may have to be highlighted
in future HWO/Graphicasts. High pressure ridging will continue to
persist on Thursday from a high centered over the Ohio Valley.
Highs will climb to around 70 degrees across the area. As the
surface flow increases out of the southeast Thursday night into
Friday, so will the moisture. PWATS will climb to 1.3 to 1.5
inches across most of the area by Friday afternoon. Showers and
thunderstorms will be on the increase by Friday afternoon into the
evening hours, as a warm fronts pushes back north, out ahead of
another short wave and associated frontal system that will move
across the area overnight.

The front will sweep south across the area Friday night into
Saturday morning. Currently it looks like there will be enough
shear/instability for the possibility of another round of strong
to severe storms, and this will have to continue to be monitored.
The GFS/ECMWF differ on the timing of the back edge of the precip
on Saturday, with the ECMWF a little slower with moving the
precipitation out of the area. High pressure and dry/cool
conditions will return for Saturday, but the ECMWF/GFS diverge
Sunday night and Monday with a cold front across the area. Both
models have this feature, but the GFS is much stronger and
wetter. Will blend the two models and go with low end chance for
showers through this period. High pressure and dry/cool conditions
will return Monday night. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       46  61  40  72 /  90   1   1   2
Meridian      48  63  37  71 /  85   6   1   2
Vicksburg     46  61  42  72 /  88   0   1   2
Hattiesburg   53  67  39  73 /  86  21   1   1
Natchez       47  63  41  73 /  88   2   1   1
Greenville    42  57  41  68 /  99   0   1   2
Greenwood     42  58  39  69 / 100   0   1   2

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Wind Advisory until 3 AM CDT Wednesday for MSZ018-019-025-026-
     034-035.

LA...None.
AR...Wind Advisory until 3 AM CDT Wednesday for ARZ074-075.

&&

15/17/BB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
258 PM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018

ARZ074-075-MSZ018-019-025-026-034-035-042000-
Ashley-Chicot-Bolivar-Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Washington-
Humphreys-
258 PM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, central Mississippi, north central Mississippi, and
northwest Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Wednesday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Enhanced
TIMING...Tonight

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Tonight

Severe thunderstorms capable of producing mainly damaging wind
gusts, but also hail up to golfball size, and a few tornadoes are
expected beginning late this afternoon and continuing into this
evening.

Before and after thunderstorms move into the area, windy
conditions are anticipated through this afternoon through tonight
across the region. Winds will gust up to 40 to 45 mph at times.
This may knock down vulnerable trees and make travel difficult for
high profile vehicles.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image1.png)

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday night through Monday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region tonight.

MSZ027>033-036-042000-
Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Holmes-
258 PM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, north central Mississippi, and northeast
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Wednesday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Enhanced
TIMING...Tonight

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Tonight

Severe thunderstorms capable of producing mainly damaging wind
gusts, but also hail up to golfball size, and a few tornadoes are
expected this evening.

Before and after thunderstorms move into the area, windy
conditions are anticipated through this afternoon through tonight
across the region. Winds will gust up to 40 to 45 mph at times.
This may knock down vulnerable trees and make travel difficult for
high profile vehicles.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image1.png)

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday night through Monday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region tonight.

LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ037>063-042000-
Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-Madison LA-
Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Attala-Winston-Noxubee-
Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-Warren-
Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah-Simpson-
Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-Lawrence-
258 PM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, central Mississippi, south central Mississippi, and
southwest Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Wednesday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Tonight

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Tonight

Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts,
hail up to golfball size, and a few tornadoes are possible
beginning late this afternoon across northeast Louisiana and the
Mississippi Delta, before moving south and east through tonight.

Before and after thunderstorms move into the area, windy
conditions are anticipated this afternoon through the most of the
nighttime hours across the region. Winds will gust in the 30 to 40
mph range at times. This may knock down vulnerable trees and make
travel difficult for high profile vehicles.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image1.png)

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday night through Monday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region tonight.

MSZ064>066-072>074-042000-
Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
258 PM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Mississippi, and southeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Wednesday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Tonight

Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts,
hail up to golfball size, and a few tornadoes are possible
beginning late this afternoon across northeast Louisiana and the
Mississippi Delta, before moving south and east through tonight.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday night through Monday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region tonight.

21

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms are expected.
Moderate...Severe storms expected with significant
 severe weather possible.
Enhanced...Severe storms expected.
Slight...Severe storms possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe storms possible.

*NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS*
Extreme...Sustained winds 50 mph or greater or wind gusts 65 mph
 or greater.
Significant...Sustained winds 40-49 mph or wind gusts 58-64 mph.
Elevated...Sustained winds 30-39 mph or wind gusts 45-57 mph.
Limited...Sustained winds 20-29 mph or wind gusts 30 to 44 mph.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
839 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CROSSETT                33.13N 91.97W
04/03/2018                   ASHLEY             AR   PUBLIC

            LARGE TREE FALLS ON CAR IN CROSSETT.

&&

JPM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
840 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2018

LAZ026-MSZ059>061-040215-
Concordia LA-Adams MS-Jefferson MS-Franklin MS-
840 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2018

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN CONCORDIA PARISH...
EASTERN JEFFERSON...FRANKLIN AND SOUTHERN ADAMS COUNTIES UNTIL 915
PM CDT...

At 839 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking strong thunderstorms
along a line extending from near Red Lick to near Kingston to near
Black Hawk. Movement was east at 35 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Fayette, Red Lick, Kingston and Cranfield around 845 PM CDT.
  Blue Hill around 855 PM CDT.
  Garden City and Mcbride around 900 PM CDT.
  Union Church around 905 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Roxie and Meadville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
northeastern Louisiana...and southwestern Mississippi.

LAT...LON 3104 9165 3104 9172 3120 9169 3146 9136
      3185 9101 3177 9074 3161 9074 3161 9066
      3135 9091 3132 9112 3137 9124 3132 9147
      3128 9150 3123 9149 3122 9158 3111 9163
      3104 9156 3097 9166
TIME...MOT...LOC 0139Z 289DEG 29KT 3178 9101 3145 9130 3114 9171

NF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
846 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     TSTM WND DMG     7 ENE VICKSBURG         32.38N 90.78W
04/03/2018                   WARREN             MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPORTS OF TREE A LANDED ON A HOUSE, A
            VEHICLE, AND MULTIPLE OTHER TREES DOWN IN
            THE AREA.

&&

TW/JE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
855 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0825 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 W RAYMOND             32.26N 90.44W
04/03/2018                   HINDS              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE REPORTED DOWN AT RATLIFF RD AND
            PINEHILL IN RAYMOND.

&&

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>