Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
614 AM CDT Thu Mar 29 2018

...FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH MID-DAY...

.UPDATE...
Updated for 12Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF discussion:
Ongoing showers, along with a few embedded thunderstorms, continue
to affect most TAF sites across the region this morning, and will
continue to do so through much of the day. This will likely result
in flight categories bouncing from VFR to IFR through at least
early this afternoon. Rainfall could be heavy at times, especially
if observed with thunderstorms, which could take visibilities down
to LIFR categories for a brief period. Some severe storms will be
possible from late this morning through mid-afternoon at namely
KMEI and KHBG. Damaging winds gusts of 52 knots will be the
primary concern with these storms. However, a few tornadoes will
also be possible. All of this activity will come to and end from
west to east through the course of the late afternoon and early
evening, as a cold front slowly pushes east into and through the
region. Winds will be southerly ahead of the front around 7-10
knots, with a few higher gusts. Winds will become northwesterly
around 5-8 knots after the front passes. For the most part, VFR
categories are expected to prevail behind this front, but some
lingering low stratus and into Thursday night. /19/

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today and Tonight:

The potential for a few severe storms and heavy rain resulting in
flash flooding, continues across portions of the forecast area.
While the threat for flash flooding persists primarily through the
morning hours and over areas along and northwest of the Natchez
Trace, the severe potential currently looks to run through early
afternoon and primarily across east Central and Southeast
Mississippi. This is the area that currently resides east and
south of an stalled outflow boundary that prompted some severe
storms across central and western portions of the forecast area
Wednesday afternoon and evening.

With this area remaining in the warm sector ahead of the outflow
boundary, coupled with 50-60 knots of deep-layer wind shear, and
increasing instability after sunrise when daytime heating ensues, a
few storms that move across East Central and Southeast Mississippi
ahead of or along the outflow boundary could become severe. Damaging
wind gusts will be the main concern with the most intense storms,
but a few tornadoes are possible as well.  Although rain will linger
in the wake of any storms across these areas, the severe risk will
wane once the initial storms push through the area.  Once the cold
front shifts east through the area this evening, rain chances are
expected to end across East and Southeast Mississippi.

Meanwhile, back across western and central portions of the forecast
area this morning, the potential for heavy rain resulting in flash
flooding will continue through the morning hours.  Continued deep
moisture transport ahead of a cold front approaching East Texas,
aided by favorable jet dynamics aloft and intersecting cold pool
boundaries, will continue to promote a steady stream of showers and
embedded thunderstorms across much of the western half of the
forecast area this morning.  As the front shifts closer to the area,
and/or the next outflow boundary/cold pool races east along the
central gulf coast this morning, this axis of rain plaguing the
western half of the CWA will finally begin to shift east across the
region, and the risk for flash flooding will come to an end.  Until
then, I'll maintain the current Flash Flood Watch configuration, as
well as the ongoing "Elevated" and "Limited" threats for flash
flooding in the HWO.

As we head into the evening hours and overnight, rain is expected to
be at an end across the forecast area.  Although, some clouds will
linger into the night.  Winds will gradually become more west to
northwesterly through the night, with surface high pressure to the
northwest building into the forecast area. /19/

Friday through next Wednesday:

Expect a quieter extended period as the cold front will have moved
through the region by early morning Friday and drier air and more
seasonable temperatures move in by the weekend. With dry air and
surface ridging in, we should fall below normal into the low-mid 40s
(possible upper 30s into the Highway 25-Golden Triangle area) by
Saturday morning. Right now it looks as though frost potential will
remain low but something to keep an eye on. With high pressure
building through the region into the weekend, we should be able to
mix out, especially at the start of the weekend on Saturday, with
some slightly above normal high temperatures on Saturday. As trough
swings through the Great Lakes & into Canada a cold front will
slowly drape down to the south towards the Mid-South and just north
of our area by late weekend & into early next week (Sunday-Monday).
This could bring some light rain chances just near the Highway 82
corridor and some increasing clouds from the north. Because all the
forcing remains off to the north and east, most of the rain is
anafrontal and stays stalled just near or north of the area. South
of the front and clouds, we could warm well above normal into the
upper 70s to low 80s due to warming thermal profiles.

Around early next week on Tuesday, model solutions seems to become
more divergent as split flow develops over the Desert Southwest and
Plains, helping a low pressure system slowly develop. With continued
southerly return flow, expect increasing warmth and moisture to feed
into the area. This will help rain and storm chances to increase as
we approach around mid-week. There are some divergence in the
overall synoptic pattern but the new 00Z Euro seems to be a little
more in line with the GFS, with the Euro showing a trough/upper
level jet energy diving into the Great Lakes and some phasing with
the split flow to the south. This would help move a cold front and
better rain & storm chances and some more organized convective
potential around late Tuesday and into early Wednesday. For now,
expect increasing clouds, rain and storm chances by early-mid week
next week. /DC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       71  50  69  43 / 100  13   0   0
Meridian      72  50  69  42 / 100  20   0   0
Vicksburg     73  51  70  44 / 100  10   0   0
Hattiesburg   73  52  73  44 / 100  21   0   0
Natchez       74  52  71  46 / 100  11   0   0
Greenville    71  48  66  44 / 100  12   0   0
Greenwood     70  48  67  42 / 100  17   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Flash Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for MSZ018-019-
     025>029-032-034>037-040>043-047-048-053-059-060.

LA...Flash Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for LAZ007>009-
     015-016-023>026.

AR...Flash Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for ARZ074-075.

&&

19

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
431 AM CDT Thu Mar 29 2018

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>029-032-
034>037-040>043-047-048-053-059-060-292000-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Bolivar-
Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Choctaw-
Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-
Madison MS-Warren-Hinds-Claiborne-Jefferson-Adams-
431 AM CDT Thu Mar 29 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central
Mississippi, northwest Mississippi, southwest Mississippi, and
west central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Today

Heavy rainfall is expected to continue through this afternoon.
Event rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with locally higher
amounts, are likely.  Some incidents of flash flooding and river
flooding are expected during this timeframe.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Wednesday.

MSZ030-031-033-038-044-049-054-292000-
Clay-Lowndes-Oktibbeha-Winston-Leake-Rankin-Copiah-
431 AM CDT Thu Mar 29 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, east central Mississippi, and northeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today

Heavy rainfall is possible across the outlook area through this
afternoon. Event rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches, with locally
higher amounts, are likely. Some incidents of flash flooding and
river flooding will be possible during this timeframe.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Wednesday.

MSZ039-045-046-050-051-055-056-061>064-292000-
Noxubee-Neshoba-Kemper-Scott-Newton-Simpson-Smith-Franklin MS-
Lincoln-Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-
431 AM CDT Thu Mar 29 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, east central Mississippi, south central Mississippi,
and southwest Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Today

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today

Isolated severe storms capable of producing damaging wind gusts
will be possible from late this morning through early this
afternoon. A tornado cannot be ruled out.

Heavy rainfall is possible across the outlook area through this
afternoon. Event rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches, with locally
higher amounts, are likely. Some incidents of flash flooding and
river flooding will be possible during this timeframe.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image1.png)
(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today.

MSZ052-057-058-065-066-072>074-292000-
Lauderdale-Jasper-Clarke-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
431 AM CDT Thu Mar 29 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of east central
Mississippi, south central Mississippi, and southeast
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Today

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today

Severe storms capable of producing damaging wind gusts will be
possible from late this morning through early this afternoon. A
few tornadoes are possible as well.

Heavy rainfall is possible across the outlook area through this
afternoon. Event rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches, with locally
higher amounts, are likely. Some incidents of flash flooding and
river flooding will be possible during this timeframe.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image1.png)
(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today.

19

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*FLOODING*
Extreme...Confident in significant flooding.
Significant...Significant flooding possible.
Elevated...Confident in flooding.
Limited...Flooding possible.

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms are expected.
Moderate...Severe storms expected with significant
 severe weather possible.
Enhanced...Severe storms expected.
Slight...Severe storms possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe storms possible.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR FLOODING ISSUES...

Current Watches and Warnings...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe_HeavyRain

Observed Precipitation Images...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/precipmaps

River Forecast Center...
   https://www.weather.gov/lmrfc/
Significant River Flood Outlook...
   www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html
Day 1 through 3 Excessive Rainfall...
   www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml
Excessive Rainfall Discussion...
   www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpferd.html
Day 1 through 7 QPF...
   www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml
QPF Discussion...
   www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfpfd.html
...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/

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