Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
549 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

.UPDATE...
Updated for 12Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF discussion:
MVFR to IFR flight categories are prevailing across the region as
low clouds have built in. A swath of showers and thunderstorms
continues to push east into the area and will affect all TAF sites
through the remainder of the morning into early afternoon. These
will bring reduced vis and ceilings to each site. GWO/HKS/JAN will
be affect from 12Z through 15Z, GTR/MEI/HBG will be affected
generally from 15Z through 19Z. Clearing will then occur from west
to east with all sites returning to VFR by late afternoon. Winds
will be out of the south initially, switching to the southwest and
then west. Speeds will be around 10kts with some gusts to near
20kts possible outside of thunderstorms. Gusts to near 30kts
possible in thunderstorms. /28/

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today and tonight...

Showers and some thunderstorms are moving into the western portion
of the forecast area early this morning. As anticipated, much of
this activity has lost its severity as it moved across Louisiana and
into the western portions of my area. This is due to a lesser amount
of instability in place across the region. Water vapor imagery
clearly shows the closed low spinning across central Kansas with the
surface low across the confluence of Missouri/Iowa/Kansas/Nebraska.
A cold front in association with this low is located across western
Arkansas down across the ArkLaTex region and into the Texas Hill
Country. Ahead of this, as noted, were the showers and storms moving
into the eastern portions of Louisiana and Arkansas.

For today, this line of showers and storms will continue to push
east into and through the forecast area. Model guidance, especially
hi-res guidance, continues to show that this activity will remain
sub-severe as it moves through. Much of the hi-res CAM guidance
doesn't show much of an impressive line moving through east of I-55.
Given the time of day this will be moving through across western
portions of the area, expect that much of the activity will remain
just in the form of sub-severe showers and some thunderstorms.
Global models continue to indicate that the better instability will
occur across the far eastern portions of my forecast area and
beyond, with nearing 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE and the better influx of
higher dewpoints. However, it is not completely out of the question
that as the line nears the eastern border of my CWA, there could be
a few strong to isolated severe storms given the fact that there is
ample wind shear available(with deep layer shear depicted to be
around 50kts and lower level shear around 20-30kts). Will make
adjustments to the current marginal risk area in the HWO and
graphics.

Showers and storms should be exiting the east through early
afternoon with clearing skies to follow. Highs today should reach
into the the lower 60s in the Delta to the lower 70s in the Pine
Belt. As the upper system starts to pull off to the east, high
pressure at the surface will move in this evening. Overnight lows
will drop into the upper 30s to around 40. /28/

Tuesday through next Sunday:

Expect dry conditions during the mid to late week along with
seasonal temperatures as zonal flow aloft helps to ensure there are
no temperature extremes. Strong surface high pressure and dry air
will make for sunny days and clear nights that will allow lows to
fall below freezing, especially Wednesday night when the surface
high will be centered over the forecast area helping to create
ideal nocturnal cooling conditions.

Global models are in good agreement on the passage of a significant
polar stream shortwave trough this coming weekend. While rain will
almost surely accompany the frontal passage over the ArkLaMiss
region, a subtropical stream wave moving across the Gulf of Mexico
complicates the QPF pattern as it supports heavy convective rainfall
off the central Gulf coast.  Such a convective complex would tend to
intercept better moisture/instability before it can interact with
the primary front, so will continue to leave out the mention of
thunder in the explicit forecast. It looks like the front should
pass through the region Saturday with seasonably cool temperatures
and dry weather to follow for Sunday. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       71  38  58  33 /  96   3   0   0
Meridian      74  39  57  31 /  82   7   0   0
Vicksburg     71  38  59  32 /  88   2   0   0
Hattiesburg   74  40  60  34 /  79   4   0   0
Natchez       69  39  58  33 /  84   2   0   0
Greenville    66  36  54  32 /  86   2   0   0
Greenwood     68  36  54  30 /  92   3   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

28

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
452 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>045-047>050-
053>056-059>064-231100-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Bolivar-
Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-
Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-
Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Warren-
Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Claiborne-Copiah-Simpson-Smith-Jefferson-Adams-
Franklin MS-Lincoln-Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-
452 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central
Mississippi, south central Mississippi, and southwest
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Sunday.

MSZ046-051-052-057-058-065-066-072>074-231100-
Kemper-Newton-Lauderdale-Jasper-Clarke-Covington-Jones-Marion-
Lamar-Forrest-
452 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of east central
Mississippi, south central Mississippi, and southeast
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Today

Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible during the late
morning to early afternoon. Damaging winds will be the main threat
for any stronger storm.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today.

28

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms are expected.
Moderate...Severe storms expected with significant
 severe weather possible.
Enhanced...Severe storms expected.
Slight...Severe storms possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe storms possible.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
731 AM CST MON JAN 22 2018

MSZ054-055-062-063-221415-
Lawrence MS-Copiah MS-Lincoln MS-Simpson MS-
731 AM CST MON JAN 22 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN SIMPSON...
LINCOLN...NORTHERN LAWRENCE AND SOUTHEASTERN COPIAH COUNTIES UNTIL
815 AM CST...

At 730 AM CST, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
over Vaughn, or near Brookhaven, moving east at 45 mph.

Winds of 40-50 mph will be possible with this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Brookhaven around 740 AM CST.
  Wesson around 745 AM CST.
  Sontag around 755 AM CST.
  Oma and Wanilla around 800 AM CST.
  Rockport around 805 AM CST.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Beauregard and Silver
Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3157 9064 3161 9063 3161 9065 3165 9066
      3187 9006 3165 8997 3156 8998 3139 9058
TIME...MOT...LOC 1330Z 249DEG 41KT 3157 9053

TW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
737 AM CST MON JAN 22 2018

MSZ037-043>045-221415-
Neshoba MS-Attala MS-Leake MS-Madison MS-
737 AM CST MON JAN 22 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT LEAKE...SOUTHEASTERN ATTALA...
NORTHWESTERN NESHOBA AND NORTHEASTERN MADISON COUNTIES UNTIL 815 AM
CST...

At 737 AM CST, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
near Camden, or 13 miles west of Carthage, moving northeast at 45
mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Thomastown around 750 AM CST.
  Carthage around 755 AM CST.
  Singleton around 800 AM CST.
  Renfroe and Smyrna around 805 AM CST.
  Zama around 815 AM CST.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Redwater.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3280 8919 3259 8966 3285 8980 3307 8939
      3297 8932 3293 8932 3293 8929
TIME...MOT...LOC 1337Z 241DEG 39KT 3274 8976

TW

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
758 AM CST MON JAN 22 2018

MSZ061-221430-
Franklin-
758 AM CST MON JAN 22 2018

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
AFFECT FRANKLIN COUNTY...

At 757 AM CST, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Garden City to near Mccall Creek.
Movement was east at 25 mph.

Locations impacted include...
Bude, Kirby, Garden City, Mccall Creek, Little Springs and Meadville.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3135 9116 3153 9099 3158 9063 3135 9063
      3135 9098 3134 9099 3135 9102 3134 9103
      3133 9106 3134 9107 3133 9107 3132 9112
TIME...MOT...LOC 1357Z 251DEG 22KT 3137 9108 3155 9068

NF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
812 AM CST MON JAN 22 2018

MSZ055-063>065-221500-
Lawrence MS-Jefferson Davis MS-Covington MS-Simpson MS-
812 AM CST MON JAN 22 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN SIMPSON...NORTHERN
LAWRENCE...NORTHWESTERN COVINGTON AND JEFFERSON DAVIS COUNTIES UNTIL
900 AM CST...

At 811 AM CST, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
near Monticello, or 21 miles south of Pinola, moving east at 45 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Arm around 815 AM CST.
  Progress around 820 AM CST.
  Prentiss around 830 AM CST.
  Lone Star and Clem around 840 AM CST.
  Mount Olive around 850 AM CST.
  Collins around 855 AM CST.

Other locations impacted by this storm include New Hebron, Seminary
and Silver Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3172 9020 3187 8967 3184 8965 3178 8965
      3178 8962 3156 8948 3145 9017
TIME...MOT...LOC 1411Z 254DEG 38KT 3159 9009

TW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
813 AM CST MON JAN 22 2018

MSZ037-038-044-045-221500-
Neshoba MS-Attala MS-Leake MS-Winston MS-
813 AM CST MON JAN 22 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN LEAKE...
SOUTHEASTERN ATTALA...WINSTON AND NORTHWESTERN NESHOBA COUNTIES UNTIL
900 AM CST...

At 813 AM CST, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
over Zama, or 9 miles north of Edinburg, moving northeast at 45 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Mcmillan around 840 AM CST.
  Louisville around 845 AM CST.
  Millcreek around 855 AM CST.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Noxapater.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3278 8940 3302 8953 3312 8932 3311 8932
      3311 8922 3317 8921 3320 8914 3320 8911
      3322 8911 3326 8901 3303 8881 3298 8881
TIME...MOT...LOC 1413Z 242DEG 38KT 3294 8937

TW