Severe Thunderstorm Warning 299, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
648 PM CDT Mon Jul 16 2018

.UPDATE...
Updated for 00Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF discussion:

Heavy rain and thunderstorms will bring IFR/MVFR conditions to
HKS/JAN through approximately 1 UTC this evening. Other, more
scattered, showers and embedded thunderstorms will have potential
to affect the rest of TAF sites through the evening, and possibly
even lingering into the into the overnight hours in a few spots.
The temporarily active weather pattern promoting lots of somewhat
chaotic thunderstorm activity will continue through tomorrow. The
coverage of storms will be highest in the afternoon hours, but
chance of negative impact will be far more than zero through
tomorrow evening in all areas, at all times. Sub-VFR conditions
should mostly be confined to areas of heavy downpours and
thunderstorms. /BB/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Rest of today through Tuesday: Good coverage of showers and
storms will continue to exist through the afternoon and evening
east of I-55, while isolated storm coverage will continue to exist
to the west. The aforementioned coverage of storms and clouds has
helped to keep temperatures well below heat advisory criteria
where the better coverage exists. However, criteria is being met
or exceeded in locations along and west of the MS River where less
cloud and storm coverage exists. The heat advisory will continue
until 00Z in these locations.

NW flow aloft will remain the primary upper flow pattern through
tonight and into tomorrow. Disturbances embedded in this flow
pattern will result in increased storm chances through the short
term period. The region will remain under the proverbial gun as
disturbances continue to drop in from the NW overnight and into
tomorrow. The best coverage of storms will exist as we get into
the peak heating times of tomorrow. Like today, some storms could
become strong with wind damage as the main threat.

Late night/ early morning rain/storms will keep the region from
warming as fast as we have been the last few days. Heat was left
out of the HWO for tomorrow as the clouds and rain will make it
difficult to warm quickly enough to get heat index values above
100 degrees, especially east of the MS River. Some isolated
locations along and west of the river could see heat index values
just above 100 if they remain cloud free long enough. /jpm3/

Tuesday night through Monday: Come Tuesday evening a weak cold
front is expected to be dropping into the northern portions of our
CWA. Models still differ on how far south the front will get
before it stalls. Convection is expected to still see a distinct
diurnal trend and dissipate with the loss of daytime heating but
the frontal boundary will still help prolong rain chances well
into the night. By Wednesday morning the large mid level ridge
will be centered over the southwest CONUS while upper level
troughing wl be over the eastern CONUS. This wl result in
northwest flow aloft over our CWA and atop the stalled frontal
boundary. A subtle shortwave within the northwest flow aloft looks
to combine with daytime heating and the stalled front to result in
a greater coverage of storms Wednesday and Wednesday evening. The
rain chances and associated cloud cover will hold afternoon highs
close to 90F. Normal highs run in the lower 90s. Mid level ridging
is expected to begin building back into the region from the west
Thursday and the nearly diffuse stalled front will drift back
north of our CWA. Temperatures in our west will top out in the mid
90s while humidity increases again. This will lead to peak heat
index values near 105F. Friday the mid level ridge will continue
to strengthen across our CWA while a large closed low tracks from
the northern Plains to over northern Great Lakes region. Friday
still looks to be the hottest day with afternoon highs topping
out close to 100F in our far western zones. With high humidity
back across our CWA, heat stress will become more of and issue fro
a larger portion of our CWA. A Heat Advisory will likely be needed
Friday for at least the western zones. There remain differences in
the models with the progression of the closed low and the strength
of the mid level ridge to our west. A cold front associated with
the closed low looks to drop into our CWA during the weekend. Rain
chances associated with this front are expected to be greatest
over east Mississippi. This may limit heat stress in the east
while more oppressive heat continues in the west. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       74  91  74  91 /  66  56  41  47
Meridian      73  90  74  92 /  43  69  41  47
Vicksburg     75  92  75  91 /  57  45  37  39
Hattiesburg   74  90  74  91 /  45  65  46  57
Natchez       74  91  75  90 /  28  42  35  42
Greenville    76  92  74  90 /  36  52  45  35
Greenwood     74  92  74  90 /  50  58  42  35

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ040-041-047-053-
     059>061.

LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074-075.

&&

JPM3/22/BB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
340 PM CDT Mon Jul 16 2018

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ040-047-053-059-060-
172045-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Issaquena-
Warren-Claiborne-Jefferson-Adams-
340 PM CDT Mon Jul 16 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, southwest Mississippi, and west
central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Tuesday

EXCESSIVE HEAT
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Through the remainder of this afternoon

The combination of heat and humidity today is expected to result
in several hours of heat index values near 105 degrees for the
rest of the afternoon. Precautions should be taken to avoid
strenuous outdoor activities. Check on those vulnerable to heat
stress. Stay hydrated and wear light, loose fitted clothing.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday night through Sunday

High temperatures in the upper 90s to near 100 will combine with
high humidity to produce heat indices at or above 105 each afternoon
Thursday through Sunday. Precautions should be taken to avoid
strenuous outdoor activities. Check on those vulnerable to heat
stress. Stay hydrated and wear light, loose fitted clothing.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Sunday.

MSZ018-019-025>039-041>046-048>052-054>058-061>066-072>074-172045-
Bolivar-Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-
Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-
Winston-Noxubee-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-
Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Copiah-Simpson-Smith-Jasper-
Clarke-Franklin MS-Lincoln-Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-
Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
340 PM CDT Mon Jul 16 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, north central Mississippi, and south central
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Tuesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday night through Sunday

High temperatures in the upper 90s to near 100 will combine with
high humidity to produce heat indices at or above 105 each afternoon
Thursday through Sunday. Precautions should be taken to avoid
strenuous outdoor activities. Check on those vulnerable to heat
stress. Stay hydrated and wear light, loose fitted clothing.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Sunday.

3

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*EXCESSIVE HEAT*
Extreme...Maximum heat index greater than 110 degrees for 3 or
 more days in a row and/or air temperatures greater than 107
 degrees.
Significant...Maximum heat index greater than 110 degrees
 and/or air temperatures greater than 105 degrees.
Elevated...Maximum heat index 105 to 110 degrees and/or air
 temperatures greater than 103 degrees.
Limited...Maximum heat index near 105 degrees and/or air
 temperatures 100 to 103 degrees.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Tropical page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/srh/tropical?office=jan
National Hurricane Center Home Page...
   https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

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