Severe Thunderstorm Warning 279, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1246 PM CDT Fri Jul 6 2018

.UPDATE...
Updated for 18Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion:
VFR conditions will prevail through the majority of the TAF
period. Scattered SHRA/TSRA will cause brief categorical
reductions, mainly due to visibility, this afternoon through this
evening. A brief period of MVFR ceilings or visiblities are
possible around daybreak Saturday morning at GLH and GWO. /DL/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
It is a quiet morning thus far across the area as we remain on the
eastern periphery of a mid/upper ridge and in a subtle minimum of
deep layer moisture. A cold front now extends from west to east
across the Midwest and is pushing gradually southward toward the
area. Scattered storms are ongoing ahead of this front from the MO
Bootheel eastward into TN. Previous thinking still holds that
better chances for convection will be later today into the evening
hours as the front makes further southward progress and a weak
shortwave approaches from the N/NE. No substantial changes will be
made to the forecast at this time. /DL/

Prior discussion below:

Today and Tonight: Mid level flow becoming more northeasterly
this morning as trough moving through the northeast and eastern
portions of the nation has eroded the prominent ridge axis. This
will not result in much of a change in the weather today, but will
by late afternoon into tonight.

For today just expecting a scattering of convection with the best
coverage occurring in a northeast to southwest stripe across central
sections where the models are showing a persistent area of low level
convergence through the afternoon. Limited convection for a good
portion of the day will allow maximum temperatures to climb into the
90s once again today with mid 90s being a good possibility over
northern portions. The ArkLaMiss Delta region looks to hold onto mid
70s dewpoints which when combined with the expected heat will
send heat indices up near 105. Will include a limited heat stress
for this region in the hazardous weather outlook.

By late afternoon, convection will begin increasing from the north
ahead of a cold front dropping south out of the mid MS valley.
Though loss of heating during the evening should diminish convective
coverage somewhat, frontal convergence/lift should maintain
convective potential well into the night. /26/

This weekend through mid-late week next week (Thursday): Expect
temperatures near to slightly below normals & widespread rain &
storm chances through the weekend. As mid-level ridging building
eastward into the mid-upper Mississippi Valley & Great Lakes, our
area will remain mostly under the southern fringe of this. As the
synoptic trough digs through the mid-Atlantic & New England, a
weak front will dip down into our area by the weekend into
Saturday. This slow moving pattern will remain as mid-level &
surface ridging will slowly build east-southeast to our northeast.
Due to that, expect this weak front to stall & hang up in the
region. A few subtle westward moving shortwaves will track through
the area, helping provide impetus for convection. With increasing
low level convergence & high moisture ~2+ inches & light flow &
weak Corfidi vectors, expect some heavy downpours possible. Flash
flooding can't be ruled out but due to the scattered nature in
convection & plenty of green vegetation, not enough confidence to
put in the HWO/graphics. Severe potential looks low due to weak
lapse rates & shear but can't rule out an isolated stronger storm
or so. Due to increase rain & precip, temperatures will be held in
check slightly below normals, which should provide some brief
relief in the heat.

As we move into next week, ridging will again build north of the
area but potentially a little more increasing heights into our area,
especially by mid-late portions of the week. This will help to
provide more subsidence & convection to become more diurnal through
early-mid portions of next week. In addition, expect increasing
thermal profiles & decreasing clouds, so temperatures could rebound
near to slightly above normal & heat indices & heat stress will
potentially become a concern again as well. /DC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       92  72  89  72 /  36  44  69  57
Meridian      91  72  89  71 /  25  48  73  58
Vicksburg     94  73  88  72 /  25  37  63  48
Hattiesburg   91  71  89  71 /  33  35  79  47
Natchez       92  73  87  71 /  29  33  76  53
Greenville    94  73  88  72 /  24  38  46  39
Greenwood     94  72  88  72 /  30  45  52  42

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

DL/26/DC

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
246 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2018

MSZ019-025-062015-
Leflore MS-Sunflower MS-
246 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN SUNFLOWER AND
SOUTHERN LEFLORE COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM CDT...

At 245 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
over Quito, or near Itta Bena, moving west at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Quito around 250 PM CDT.
  Itta Bena around 255 PM CDT.
  Moorhead around 315 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Morgan City.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3342 9016 3342 9017 3336 9017 3334 9022
      3337 9032 3335 9028 3333 9028 3332 9029
      3332 9032 3330 9035 3330 9045 3333 9045
      3333 9056 3354 9061 3356 9012
TIME...MOT...LOC 1945Z 079DEG 21KT 3346 9027

CME

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
257 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2018

MSZ048-049-062030-
Hinds MS-Rankin MS-
257 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN RANKIN AND
SOUTHEASTERN HINDS COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM CDT...

At 257 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
over Pearl, moving west at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Richland around 310 PM CDT.
  Byram around 325 PM CDT.
  Jackson, Clinton and Raymond around 330 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3236 9006 3218 9004 3211 9039 3238 9043
TIME...MOT...LOC 1957Z 083DEG 21KT 3229 9010

CME