Severe Thunderstorm Warning 220, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
406 PM CDT Sat Jun 9 2018

.DISCUSSION...

This Evening through Tomorrow:

Scattered convection ongoing across the area at the moment, most
prevalent in the east will continue into the early evening then
taper off with the loss of heating.

Models are in agreement that low level southerly flow will
increasingly deepen through the short term with PWs creeping up to
between 1.5-1.75 inches by Sunday afternoon. This will lead to an
increase in coverage of showers and thunderstorms Sunday
afternoon as compared to today. Surface dewpoints remaining in the
60s (though increased somewhat from today) will continue to
promote deep mixing and inverted V soundings in the afternoon
Sunday. Model data of local microburst composite parameter are not
indicating much potential of wet microbursts, however, the
inverted V soundings should locally aid in gusty wind potential
with some convection./26/

Tomorrow Night through Saturday:

The summery weather pattern will continue through the week ahead,
as our region will remain between two centers of high pressure:
one to the west over Texas and the other over the western
Atlantic. This leaves the ArkLaMiss region and south across the
Gulf of Mexico under general troughing/weakness in the upper level
pattern. Therefore, mainly afternoon and evening shower and
thunderstorm activity will continue through most of the week. One
of the shortwaves dipping into the upper-level trough might help
to provide a little better focus for thunderstorm development
Monday or Tuesday, but otherwise expect mostly disorganized
convection each day with an isolated threat for heavy downpours
and strong wind gusts. Models continue to disagree with the
overall synoptic pattern late in the week into next weekend, both
in regards to the mid-latitude CONUS pattern and possible
development of an easterly wave sliding northwest across the Gulf
of Mexico. For now, there is low confidence in any tropical
development, but the easterly wave should at least introduce
another moist, tropical airmass to the Gulf Coast region and keep
rain chances in the forecast - especially near the Coast. /NF/

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion:
Mostly VFR conditions will prevail through the period. However,
isolated thunderstorms this afternoon through mid evening will
briefly lower ceilings and visibilities to IFR at terminals that
receive them. Localized wind gusts in and near these storms may
also approach 40 knots. /26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       69  91  70  90 /  19  28  17  43
Meridian      69  91  70  90 /  24  38  16  49
Vicksburg     70  91  71  91 /  11  22  18  34
Hattiesburg   68  92  70  90 /  28  38  24  51
Natchez       69  90  71  90 /   9  32  21  35
Greenville    71  92  71  91 /  15  16  14  32
Greenwood     70  92  71  90 /  24  20  14  33

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

06/26

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
210 PM CDT Sat Jun 9 2018

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
101915-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Bolivar-
Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-
Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-
Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-
Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah-
Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-
Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
210 PM CDT Sat Jun 9 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central
Mississippi, and south central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Sunday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday night through Friday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Friday.

26

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

No short term hazards expected.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Tropical page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/srh/tropical?office=jan
National Hurricane Center Home Page...
   https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
534 PM CDT SAT JUN 9 2018

MSZ066-074-092300-
Jones MS-Forrest MS-
534 PM CDT SAT JUN 9 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN FORREST AND
SOUTHERN JONES COUNTIES THROUGH 600 PM CDT...

At 534 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
near Ovett, or 9 miles southeast of Ellisville. This storm was nearly
stationary.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hattiesburg, Petal, Sunrise, Macedonia, Moselle and Ovett.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3155 8931 3163 8894 3143 8894 3143 8914
      3132 8915 3128 8924
TIME...MOT...LOC 2234Z 168DEG 4KT 3149 8912

DL

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