Severe Thunderstorm Warning 18, NWS Jackson, MS

892 
WWUS54 KJAN 052305
SVSJAN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
505 PM CST MON MAR 5 2018

LAC067-052330-
/O.CON.KJAN.SV.W.0018.000000T0000Z-180305T2330Z/
Morehouse LA-
505 PM CST MON MAR 5 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM CST
FOR CENTRAL MOREHOUSE PARISH...

At 505 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm was located 10 miles southeast
of Bastrop, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

this severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
central Morehouse Parish, including the following locations:
Collinston, Mer Rouge and Oak Ridge.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3282 9158 3279 9160 3275 9160 3270 9164
      3268 9162 3262 9166 3261 9172 3259 9173
      3263 9192 3266 9191 3267 9193 3266 9194
      3268 9196 3284 9178
TIME...MOT...LOC 2305Z 280DEG 23KT 3267 9178 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

DB

980 
WWUS54 KJAN 052321
SVSJAN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
521 PM CST MON MAR 5 2018

LAC067-052331-
/O.EXP.KJAN.SV.W.0018.000000T0000Z-180305T2330Z/
Morehouse LA-
521 PM CST MON MAR 5 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL MOREHOUSE PARISH WILL
EXPIRE AT 530 PM CST...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore the warning will be allowed to expire.

LAT...LON 3282 9158 3279 9160 3275 9160 3270 9164
      3268 9162 3262 9166 3261 9172 3259 9173
      3263 9192 3266 9191 3267 9193 3266 9194
      3268 9196 3284 9178
TIME...MOT...LOC 2321Z 278DEG 30KT 3265 9163 

$$

DB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
429 PM CST Mon Mar 5 2018

...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...

This Evening through Tuesday:

A Marginal Risk for severe weather will continue across the
western half of our forecast area through around midnight tonight
- including far southeast Arkansas, central and northeast
Louisiana, and areas in Mississippi west of Interstate 55. As a
stacked low pressure system spins over the Northern High Plains
this afternoon, a cold front extends south along the Mississippi
River Valley into northern Louisiana. Daytime heating and warm,
moist advection ahead of the cold front have boosted dewpoints to
around 65 degrees as far north as Cleveland, MS and Stuttgart, AR.
A line of robust thunderstorms has developed along the portion of
the front from southeast AR to central LA, as 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE
and 40-50 kts of 0-6km shear have allowed for these storms to
become better organized. A few storms have already exhibited
supercell characteristics. With the discrete nature of these
storms, hail and damaging winds will be the primary hazards.
Generally weaker low- level shear across most of the line will
limit tornado potential, however low-level shear is sufficient
enough across the ArkLaMiss Delta region for supercells to be
capable of producing tornadoes.

The threat for severe weather will decrease after sunset tonight,
as the storms move into a less supportive environment and
instability weakens with the loss of daytime heating. Therefore
even though thunderstorms may linger after midnight and for areas
east of Interstate 55, the severe threat will have diminished by
that time and for those areas. Cooler and drier air will begin to
filter into our forecast area by morning as the front clears the
area. Rain chances should end in the Pine Belt by around 9 AM
tomorrow morning. High temperatures should be right around normal
(mid 60's) under sunny skies. As the low pressure system passes to
our north and surface pressure continues to rise during the day,
west winds at around 10 to 15 mph are expected for the afternoon
hours. A few gusts of up to 25 to 35 mph may be possible across
the Highway 82 corridor if some stronger winds can mix down during
the afternoon. /NF/

Wednesday to Monday:

The weather pattern for the middle portion of the week will be
dominated by a anomalous E CONUS trough (Great Lakes upper low)
which will allow for strong sfc higher pressure to build in. Cold
air advection (CAA) will be pretty stout on Wed with 925-850mb
temps running in the 10th percentile. These cold conditions will
support temps some 5-10 degrees below avg Wed-Thu with some
frost/freeze potential (esp Thu and Fri mornings). Each morning,
the NE half of the area will have the greatest potential to see
near or sub freezing temps. At this time, we will continue to
highlight this threat in our HWO graphics.

Look for a quick warmup for Friday with some 70s being reached
(could be more 70s if sunshine prevails). This increasing warmth
will be in response to an approaching shortwave which will impact
the region over the weekend. Look for moisture to increase as
well, especially Friday night into Saturday. As for storm
potential Sat into Sat night, a good deal of uncertainty exists in
how this system will evolve and what sort of hazards may play out
in our area. One thing that the global models do indicate is cold
temps aloft will exist along with strong deep layer shear. Much
will hinge on how quality marine moisture gets used up with any
coastal or off short convective complex. However, there does seem
to be sufficient moisture return into the forecast area to support
convection. At a minimum, convection is the likely steep lapse
rate environment would support large hail. Due to the prev noted
uncertainty, we will continue to monitor this potential system as
it remains in the day 5- 6 timeframe.

A return to cooler conditions is anticipated early next week with
another shot at a frost/freeze in the early/mid week timeframe.
/CME/

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF discussion:
To begin the period, a mix of VFR to MVFR ceilings with broken
cloud decks across the region with bases ranging from around 2500
to 4000 feet. Passing showers early this afternoon are not expect
to impact flying conditions at the TAF sites, but the chances for
heavier showers and thunderstorms increase by 21Z to 03Z this
evening as a cold front moves into the region. Gusty winds as well
as lowered ceilings and reduced visibility can be expected beneath
these heavier showers or storms. A wind shift to northerly winds
and improving ceilings can be expected behind the cold front. /NF/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       48  65  37  56 / 100   5   0   0
Meridian      51  65  38  57 / 100  31   0   0
Vicksburg     46  66  37  56 /  99   1   0   0
Hattiesburg   54  65  39  60 / 100  78   0   0
Natchez       49  66  40  56 / 100   5   0   0
Greenville    43  64  36  54 /  52   0   0   0
Greenwood     43  64  36  53 /  87   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

NF/CME

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
423 AM CST Mon Mar 5 2018

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ034-035-040>043-047>049-
053>055-059>063-061030-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Washington-
Humphreys-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Warren-Hinds-Rankin-
Claiborne-Copiah-Simpson-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-
Lawrence-
423 AM CST Mon Mar 5 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, northwest
Mississippi, south central Mississippi, southwest Mississippi,
and west central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Today through Tonight

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon
and evening. The primary hazards from these storms will be hail
up to quarter size and damaging wind gusts.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

A light freeze is possible early Thursday and Friday mornings,
especially over areas of Mississippi north of Interstate 20 and
east of Interstate 55. Elsewhere across the area, patchy frost
will be possible Thursday and Friday mornings. After an early
start to the growing season, these conditions could cause damage
to unprotected sensitive vegetation early Thursday and early
Friday. This potential weather event is still several days away
and the timing and impacts will likely be adjusted in later
forecasts.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image2.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through tonight.

MSZ018-019-025>033-036>039-044>046-050>052-056>058-064>066-
072>074-061030-
Bolivar-Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-
Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Holmes-Attala-Winston-Noxubee-Leake-
Neshoba-Kemper-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-
Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
423 AM CST Mon Mar 5 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, east central Mississippi, north central Mississippi,
south central Mississippi, and southeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

A light freeze is possible early Thursday and Friday mornings,
especially over areas of Mississippi north of Interstate 20 and
east of Interstate 55. Elsewhere across the area, patchy frost
will be possible Thursday and Friday mornings. After an early
start to the growing season, these conditions could cause damage
to unprotected sensitive vegetation early Thursday and early
Friday. This potential weather event is still several days away
and the timing and impacts will likely be adjusted in later
forecasts.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image2.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Sunday.

21

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms are expected.
Moderate...Severe storms expected with significant
 severe weather possible.
Enhanced...Severe storms expected.
Slight...Severe storms possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe storms possible.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
431 PM CST MON MAR 5 2018

LAZ007-052300-
Morehouse LA-
431 PM CST MON MAR 5 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL MOREHOUSE PARISH UNTIL
500 PM CST...

At 431 PM CST, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
near Sterlington, or near Bastrop, moving east at 35 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Bastrop around 440 PM CST.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Collinston, Mer Rouge
and Oak Ridge.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3290 9208 3284 9159 3274 9161 3270 9164
      3268 9162 3261 9167 3261 9171 3259 9173
      3264 9192 3266 9191 3266 9194 3271 9197
      3270 9202 3271 9204 3270 9204 3269 9205
      3271 9206 3280 9205 3284 9206 3287 9208
TIME...MOT...LOC 2231Z 278DEG 30KT 3276 9202

DB