Severe Thunderstorm Warning 150, NWS Jackson, MS

553 
WWUS54 KJAN 161945
SVSJAN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
245 PM CDT WED MAY 16 2018

MSC061-067-161955-
/O.CAN.KJAN.SV.W.0150.000000T0000Z-180516T2015Z/
Jasper MS-Jones MS-
245 PM CDT WED MAY 16 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL JASPER AND
NORTHEASTERN JONES COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However gusty winds are
still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 3157 8915 3178 8931 3191 8921 3181 8896
      3174 8901
TIME...MOT...LOC 1944Z 310DEG 4KT 3172 8912 

$$

17

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
102 PM CDT Wed May 16 2018

.UPDATE...
Updated for 18Z aviation discussion.

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF discussion:
The primary concern for aviation through the TAF period will be
the chance for showers and thunderstorms to bring locally gusty
winds and possible restrictions to visibility or ceilings. With
expected isolated to scattered coverage of showers and storms
around the region, the impacts to any particular TAF site may be
brief and localized. Amendments may be necessary if thunderstorms
develop near a TAF site this afternoon. Also, fog or low cloud
development may occur later tonight into early Thursday morning in
areas which get rainfall today, but chances for prevailing MVFR
or lower were too low to include in TAFs at this time. /NF/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Primarily made adjustments to POPs for today and tonight based on
latest trends in observations and short-term hi-res guidance.
Also increased max temps today around 1 to 3 degrees based on
clouds having cleared out of most of the area, and focus for rain
being primarily in the far eastern part of the area this
afternoon. Our forecast area will be between shortwaves during the
daytime today,so scattered shower and storm coverage expected to
be primarily confined to the axis of higher moisture currently
over eastern Mississippi. Isolated showers or thunderstorms are
still possible across other the rest of the region after
convective temperatures are reached. Drier air across the western
half of MS and our northeastern LA parishes and southeastern AR
counties will result in a greater potential for damaging
microburst winds, with a lesser threat for damaging winds in the
slightly more stable air across eastern MS. We then expect an
increase in thunderstorm chances overnight from the west as
short-term guidance continues to show an MCV currently over
eastern OK migrating southeastward toward the ArkLaMiss by
tonight. Elevated instability will remain overnight with mid-level
lapse rates around 6-7 deg C/km, so the added lift with the MCV
should be able to trigger thunderstorms as it moves into the
area. For now will leave mention of organized severe weather out
of the HWO, however may end up including a Marginal risk for
severe weather if it looks like evening/overnight activity has the
potential to be more robust. /NF/

Prior discussion below:

Today and Tonight: early morning water vapor imagery/RAP analysis
showed the circulation around a weak closed low over the Florida
panhandle and a weak shortwave trough axis nearly along the
Mississippi river that extended from the mid Mississippi river
valley south over the lower Mississippi river valley. The resulting
shear axis between these two features was over east Mississippi and
was helping to maintain convection through early morning. Models
have not handled this convection well tonight but agree that it
should wain toward morning with a brief lull in the activity before
firing back up during the day. The weak closed low is expected to
drift northwest and be absorbed by the shortwave trough to our west
as this trough shifts slowly east across our CWA through tonight.
PWATs close to an inch and a half look to remain confined to the
eastern half of our CWA today where the greatest coverage of storms
is expected. There were a few strong storms around yesterday evening
and a few additional strong storms will be possible again today. The
most favorable environmental conditions for strong storms look to be
over the western half of our CWA where coverage of storms will be
more isolated and the warmest temperatures will continue. A few
record highs in our west are not out of the question today but will
be harder to come by than on Monday and Tuesday. Ongoing convection
and morning cloud debris will likely limit prime insolation in our
east and an early development to convection could offset heating in
the west. There will be a decrease in convection this evening with
the loss of daytime heating, especially in our east but there is
ongoing convection over the Red River valley early this morning and
some CAM guidance still suggests some of this activity may hold
together and spill into the western portions our our CWA. Otherwise,
warmer than normal temperatures will continue tonight. /22/

Thursday through mid week next week...

A warm and active pattern will exist throughout the extended
period with rain/storm chances each day and highs ranging from the
upper 80's to mid 90's.

By Thursday, the ArkLaMiss will remain on the east side of a
building upper ridge over the Plains, resulting in weak NW flow
aloft. Most storms on Thursday will be diurnally driven but can't
count out the development of an MCS type feature due to a possible
weak disturbance anytime that we have NW flow aloft and sufficient
buoyancy in the atmosphere. By Thursday afternoon, SBCAPE values
will range from 1500-2500 j/kg with 0-6km lapse rates ranging from
6.5-7.5 C/km. Regardless of the mode of storm, the main threat
will be wind damage. A similar threat of storms will exist on
Friday as NW flow remains apparent in the upper levels. Both the
NAM and the Euro depict an upper closed low swinging across the
MidSouth on Friday. This will result in an upper speed max pushing
into the region from the NW. This feature could serve as a focus
for storm development on Friday.

On Saturday, weak ridging will be centered over the ArkLaMiss.
This will result in lesser chances of storms than the previous
days; however, isolated diurnally driven storms will remain
possible. Saturday could be the warmest day of the period with
highs reaching the mid 90's. The ridging will begin to break down
and moisture will begin to increase as we get into Sunday and
into early next week. Diurnally driven thunderstorms will make for
an active radar each day through at least Wednesday and possibly
longer. Rainfall totals over the next week will vary due to the
sporadic nature of diurnally driven storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       91  67  90  67 /  19  31  43  32
Meridian      89  66  89  67 /  51  33  46  38
Vicksburg     92  67  90  68 /  15  44  37  28
Hattiesburg   93  66  91  66 /  36  21  49  35
Natchez       91  67  90  68 /  15  44  43  34
Greenville    91  69  90  69 /  18  40  30  29
Greenwood     90  67  89  67 /  27  22  39  32

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

JPM3/NF/22

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
443 AM CDT Wed May 16 2018

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
170945-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Bolivar-
Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-
Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-
Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-
Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah-
Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-
Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
443 AM CDT Wed May 16 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central
Mississippi, and south central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Tuesday.

21

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

No short term hazards expected.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1244 PM CDT WED MAY 16 2018

MSZ027-028-037-161830-
Carroll MS-Attala MS-Montgomery MS-
1244 PM CDT WED MAY 16 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN CARROLL...NORTH
CENTRAL ATTALA AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES UNTIL 130 PM
CDT...

At 1244 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
near Vaiden, or 8 miles south of Winona, moving southeast at 5 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Poplar Creek around 130 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3326 8980 3343 8976 3347 8951 3320 8961
TIME...MOT...LOC 1744Z 327DEG 5KT 3338 8969

TW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
138 PM CDT WED MAY 16 2018

MSZ027-028-032-036-037-161900-
Carroll MS-Attala MS-Montgomery MS-Choctaw MS-Holmes MS-
138 PM CDT WED MAY 16 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL HOLMES...WEST
CENTRAL CHOCTAW...SOUTHEASTERN CARROLL...NORTHWESTERN ATTALA AND
SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM CDT...

At 137 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking strong thunderstorms
along a line extending from Poplar Creek to near Vaiden. Movement was
southeast at 5 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Vaiden, Possumneck, Poplar Creek, Hesterville, West and French Camp.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3329 8931 3308 8982 3331 8983 3343 8954
TIME...MOT...LOC 1837Z 310DEG 6KT 3335 8957 3327 8970

NF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
207 PM CDT WED MAY 16 2018

MSZ051-161945-
Newton MS-
207 PM CDT WED MAY 16 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN NEWTON COUNTY UNTIL
245 PM CDT...

At 207 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
over Stratton, or 8 miles southeast of Prospect, moving south at 10
mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Prospect, Decatur, Little Rock and Stratton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3239 8895 3236 8927 3258 8927 3258 8905
TIME...MOT...LOC 1907Z 339DEG 9KT 3250 8914

NF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
218 PM CDT WED MAY 16 2018

MSZ057-066-161945-
Jones MS-Jasper MS-
218 PM CDT WED MAY 16 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL JASPER AND NORTH
CENTRAL JONES COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM CDT...

At 218 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
over Moss, or near Stringer. This storm was moving southeast at 10
mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Moss around 235 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Soso.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3178 8931 3192 8920 3186 8904 3167 8922
TIME...MOT...LOC 1918Z 310DEG 4KT 3181 8921

17