River Flood Warning 51, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
754 PM CDT Fri Apr 6 2018

...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

.UPDATE...
Updated for evening discussion.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Local radars showed a narrow band of strong to severe storms along
the Interstate 20 corridor that will continue to push south faster
than earlier anticipated. The storms within this band will
continue to have the potential to produce damaging wind gusts and
hail but, a brief tornado or two cannot be ruled out. Locally
heavy rain fall of one to two inches in a short amount of time
will also be possible. The Tornado Watch in effect will continue
to be trimmed from the north behind the band of storm. The cold
front will move through the area later tonight and bring strong
gusty winds with much cooler and drier air. /22/

Prior discussion below:

Tonight and Saturday: Severe storms are expected across much of the
area going into this evening followed by much cooler temperatures
Saturday. Local radars at mid afternoon still had scattered to
numerous storms tracking east along the Highway 82 corridor but
additional activity was developing over our southwest spreading
northeast into central Mississippi. The activity all day in the
north has kept the Highway 82 corridor stable but moisture and
instability will continue to increase into this evening ahead of an
approaching low pressure system. Water vapor imagery showed a
shortwave over southwest Arkansas and western Louisiana that will
swing east tonight and support a cold front that was noted dropping
across northern Arkansas and southeast Oklahoma. As the shortwave
and cold front approach, the convection is expected develop to our
west and punch across our Louisiana parishes and into central
Mississippi. The environmental parameters are such that damaging
winds will be the primary threat but large hail and a few tornadoes
will be possible south of the Highway 82 corridor. SPC has issued a
Tornado Watch for our Louisiana parishes and much of west and
central Mississippi until 11 pm this evening. In addition, heavy
rainfall can also be expected with the storms and a Flash Flood
Watch will remain in effect for the northwest two thirds of our CWA
tonight. The severe storm potential will shift southeast of our area
a little after midnight but the post frontal rain will not taper off
until later Saturday morning. In the wake of the cold front much
colder and drier air will blow in on a breezy north wind. Highs
Saturday will only be in the 40s across much of the area with wind
chills in the 30s. /22/

Saturday night through Thursday:  For Saturday night clouds will
be decreasing from the northwest as a cold airmass brings
unseasonable lows to the region. In this airmass we will be
looking at some lower 30s across our northeast counties where some
locations may briefing reach freezing under light winds. Some of
the guidance was trying to go with middle to upper 20s in that
area, which seemed too unreasonable for now, but will have to
monitor for any freeze warning potential in upcoming model runs.
Expecting patchy frost across the area mainly in the northeast. So
will keep the HWO graphic for a limited freezing potential for
that period. For Sunday the surface high will shift to the east as
we start to get some low level return flow. The frontal boundary
anchored to the south of the region will have some weak
disturbances tracking across it from the Sunday night into
Tuesday. In response low level isentropic lift will bring some
showers across the region. A midlevel shortwave trough will push
the showers out of the forecast area on late Monday night into
Tuesday morning. Dry weather will prevail for Tuesday afternoon
through Thursday. Looking ahead another storm system will be
approaching the area from the Plains going into next weekend./17/

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion:
Scattered to numerous TSRA activity wl cont along the HWY 82
corridor through 22Z reducing conds at GLH-GWO-GTR. Elsewhere, a
mix of VFR and MVFR cigs are expected. After 22Z conds are
expected to lower from the north as a large area of TSRA activity
is expected to develop and spread south overnight. IFR conds are
expected to prevail areawide by 07Z and cont through 18z Saturday.
/22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       47  52  35  65 /  96  31   5   5
Meridian      52  55  34  65 /  97  45   6   3
Vicksburg     45  50  36  64 /  97  25   4   5
Hattiesburg   59  65  39  66 /  94  81  13   8
Natchez       47  51  37  65 /  94  47  12   5
Greenville    39  46  33  60 /  96  22   2   3
Greenwood     40  47  32  62 /  94  23   1   2

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Flash Flood Watch until 4 AM CDT Saturday for MSZ035>037-040>044-
     047>050-053>056.

LA...Flash Flood Watch until 4 AM CDT Saturday for LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023-025.

AR...None.

&&

17/22

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
818 PM CDT Fri Apr 6 2018

ARZ074-075-LAZ007-MSZ018-019-025>039-041-080130-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-Bolivar-Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-
Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-
Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-Noxubee-Sharkey-
818 PM CDT Fri Apr 6 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, and north
central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Saturday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday night through Thursday

Patchy frost is expected during the growing season with minor
damage to unprotected vegetation for extreme southeast
Arkansas, portions of northeast Louisiana, portions of central
Mississippi, portions of west central Mississippi, portions of
east central Mississippi, and all of north central Mississippi
on Saturday night.

Frost, which may result in minor damage to unprotected
vegetation, is possible late Saturday night and early Sunday
morning for areas generally north of Interstate 20.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image3.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Thursday.

LAZ008-009-MSZ040-042>046-080130-
West Carroll-East Carroll-Issaquena-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-
Neshoba-Kemper-
818 PM CDT Fri Apr 6 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, and central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Saturday

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Tonight

A band of thunderstorms with very heavy rainfall will produce one
to two inches of rain in a short amount of time as they move
across the area this evening. This will increase the flash
flooding potential.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday night through Thursday

Frost, which may result in minor damage to unprotected
vegetation, is possible late Saturday night and early Sunday
morning for areas generally north of Interstate 20.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image3.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Thursday.

LAZ015-016-023-025-MSZ047>050-053>055-080130-
Richland-Madison LA-Franklin LA-Tensas-Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-
Claiborne-Copiah-Simpson-
818 PM CDT Fri Apr 6 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, central Mississippi, southwest Mississippi, and west
central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Saturday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Enhanced
TIMING...Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Tonight

Severe thunderstorms are expected this evening as a potent
weather system impacts the region. Hail up to the size of golf
balls and damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph will be the primary
concerns, although a few tornadoes will also be possible.

Thunderstorms will also have a tendency to move repeatedly over
the same areas. This will increase the flash flooding potential
where locations could receive two to three inches of rain in a
short period of time.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image1.png)
(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday night through Thursday

Frost, which may result in minor damage to unprotected
vegetation, is possible late Saturday night and early Sunday
morning for areas generally north of Interstate 20.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image3.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region tonight.

LAZ024-026-MSZ051-056-057-059>062-080130-
Catahoula-Concordia-Newton-Smith-Jasper-Jefferson-Adams-
Franklin MS-Lincoln-
818 PM CDT Fri Apr 6 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, central Mississippi, east central Mississippi, south
central Mississippi, and southwest Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Saturday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Enhanced
TIMING...Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Tonight

Severe thunderstorms are expected this evening as a potent
weather system impacts the region. Hail up to the size of golf
balls and damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph will be the primary
concerns, although a few tornadoes will also be possible.

The Thunderstorms will also produce very heavy rainfall of
one to two inches of rain in a short amount of time as they
move across the area this evening. This will increase the flash
flooding potential.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image1.png)
(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday night through Thursday

Frost, which may result in minor damage to unprotected
vegetation, is possible late Saturday night and early Sunday
morning for areas generally north of Interstate 20.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image3.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region tonight.

MSZ052-058-063>066-072>074-080130-
Lauderdale-Clarke-Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-
Lamar-Forrest-
818 PM CDT Fri Apr 6 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of east central
Mississippi, south central Mississippi, and southeast
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Saturday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Tonight

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this evening as a
potent weather system impacts the region. Hail up to the size of
quarters and damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph will be the primary
concerns, although a brief tornado cannot be ruled out.

The Thunderstorms will also produce very heavy rainfall of
one to two inches of rain in a short amount of time as they
move across the area this evening. This will increase the flash
flooding potential.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image1.png)
(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday night through Thursday

Frost, which may result in minor damage to unprotected
vegetation, is possible late Saturday night and early Sunday
morning for areas generally north of Interstate 20.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image3.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region tonight.

21

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*FLOODING*
Extreme...Confident in significant flooding.
Significant...Significant flooding possible.
Elevated...Confident in flooding.
Limited...Flooding possible.

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms are expected.
Moderate...Severe storms expected with significant
 severe weather possible.
Enhanced...Severe storms expected.
Slight...Severe storms possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe storms possible.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR FLOODING ISSUES...

Current Watches and Warnings...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe_HeavyRain

Observed Precipitation Images...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/precipmaps

River Forecast Center...
   https://www.weather.gov/lmrfc/
Significant River Flood Outlook...
   www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html
Day 1 through 3 Excessive Rainfall...
   www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml
Excessive Rainfall Discussion...
   www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpferd.html
Day 1 through 7 QPF...
   www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml
QPF Discussion...
   www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfpfd.html
...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
907 PM CDT FRI APR 6 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     1 N PUCKETT             32.10N 89.78W
04/06/2018                   RANKIN             MS   STORM CHASER

            FUNNEL CLOUD OBSERVED OFF WARREN HILL RD. NO
            APPARENT DAMAGE/DEBRIS.

&&

DL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
911 PM CDT FRI APR 6 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 PM     FLASH FLOOD      DELHI                   32.46N 91.49W
04/06/2018                   RICHLAND           LA   PUBLIC

            SEVERAL STREETS FLOODED IN DELHI.

&&

DL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
935 PM CDT FRI APR 6 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 NW FLOWOOD            32.36N 90.14W
04/06/2018                   HINDS              MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FLASH FLOODING ON RIDGEWOOD RD AT SHEFFIELD
            DR.

&&

DL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
940 PM CDT FRI APR 6 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0528 PM     HAIL             DELHI                   32.46N 91.49W
04/06/2018  E1.75 INCH       RICHLAND           LA   PUBLIC

&&

DL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
951 PM CDT FRI APR 6 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0940 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 NW PEARL              32.28N 90.12W
04/06/2018                   RANKIN             MS   PUBLIC

            FLOODING IN THE PARKING LOT OF ROSES. REPORT
            RELAYED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

DL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
954 PM CDT FRI APR 6 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0731 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NE BOLTON             32.41N 90.40W
04/06/2018                   HINDS              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE AND POWER LINE DOWN AT N NORRELL RD AND
            JIMMY WILLIAMS RD.

&&

CE