River Flood Warning 32, NWS Jackson, MS

270 
WGUS84 KJAN 281959
FLSJAN
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS
159 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2018



...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Mississippi...

  
  Pearl River Above Philadelphia affecting Neshoba County 
  Pearl River Near Carthage affecting Leake County 
  Tuscolameta Creek At Walnut Grove affecting Leake County 
  Pearl River Near Rockport affecting Copiah and Simpson Counties 
  Pearl River Near Monticello affecting Lawrence County 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive or walk through areas where water covers roadway! The 
water may be deeper than it appears. Remember...Turn around, don't 
drown!

Forecasts are based on rainfall that has occurred and that which is 
forecast to occur. Routine 24 hours of forecast rainfall is used for 
most sites. 

Additional information is available at:  
http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=jan

The next regularly scheduled update is expected tonight between 8 and
10 PM.

&&

MSC099-020159-
/O.CON.KJAN.FL.W.0024.180301T0600Z-000000T0000Z/
/PLAM6.1.ER.180301T0600Z.180303T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
159 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2018


The Flood Warning continues for
  The Pearl River Above Philadelphia
* from late tonight until further notice.
* At 12:45 PM Wednesday the stage was 12.7 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage just after 
  midnight tonight and will continue to rise to near 14.0 feet Friday
  evening.
* Impact...At 14.0 feet...Water begins to cover some of the Burnside 
  Lake Water Park roadways and camp areas.
* Impact...At 13.0 feet...Water begins to affect Burnside Lake Water 
  Park.

&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 6 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Thu   Fri   Sat Crest Time  Date

Upper Pearl River
Philadelphia   13  12.7 Wed 01 PM  13.2  13.8  14.0  14.0 06 PM 03/02


&&


LAT...LON 3289 8922 3291 8915 3293 8902 3292 8893
      3284 8892 3277 8918             



$$

MSC079-020159-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0031.180306T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CARM6.1.ER.180306T0000Z.180306T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
159 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2018

...Flood Warning extended until further notice...

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Pearl River Near Carthage
* from Monday evening until further notice.
* At 12:45 PM Wednesday the stage was 13.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to near flood stage Monday
  evening.
* Impact...At 17.0 feet...Minor overbank flooding of low areas along 
  and near the river is occurring.

&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 6 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Thu   Fri   Sat Crest Time  Date

Upper Pearl River
Carthage       17  13.7 Wed 01 PM  14.4  14.9  15.2  17.0 06 PM 03/05


&&


LAT...LON 3271 8964 3277 8956 3280 8951 3268 8946
      3266 8952 3263 8960             



$$

MSC079-020159-
/O.CON.KJAN.FL.W.0027.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/WTGM6.1.ER.180226T2230Z.180228T1500Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
159 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2018


The Flood Warning continues for
  The Tuscolameta Creek At Walnut Grove
* until further notice.
* At  1:00 PM Wednesday the stage was 26.2 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 25.0 feet.
* Forecast...The creek has crested and will fall very slowly.


&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 6 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Thu   Fri   Sat Crest Time  Date

Tuscolameta Creek
Walnut Grove   25  26.2 Wed 01 PM  26.1  25.6  25.4 crested         


&&


LAT...LON 3266 8953 3261 8945 3257 8935 3250 8942
      3258 8953 3263 8960             



$$

MSC029-127-020158-
/O.CON.KJAN.FL.W.0032.000000T0000Z-180303T1200Z/
/ROCM6.1.ER.000000T0000Z.180227T1900Z.180303T0000Z.NO/
159 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2018


The Flood Warning continues for
  The Pearl River Near Rockport
* until Saturday morning.
* At  7:00 AM Wednesday the stage was 27.8 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 25.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river has crested and will fall below 
  flood stage Friday evening.

&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 6 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Thu   Fri   Sat Crest Time  Date

Middle Pearl River 
Rockport       25  27.8 Wed 07 AM  26.8  25.5  24.6  crested         


&&


LAT...LON 3168 9019 3178 9019 3193 9025 3198 9012
      3182 9005 3169 9005             



$$

MSC077-020158-
/O.CON.KJAN.FL.W.0028.000000T0000Z-180305T1500Z/
/MTCM6.1.ER.180227T1200Z.180301T1200Z.180305T0300Z.NO/
159 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2018


The Flood Warning continues for
  The Pearl River Near Monticello
* until Monday morning.
* At  1:15 PM Wednesday the stage was 23.6 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 22.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 24.0 feet  
  tomorrow morning. 
* Impact...At 24.0 feet...Water appears in low areas in the extreme 
  eastern portion of the city of Monticello.



&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 6 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Thu   Fri   Sat Crest Time  Date

Middle Pearl River 
Monticello     22  23.6 Wed 01 PM  24.0  23.7  23.1  24.0 06 AM 03/01


&&


LAT...LON 3140 9008 3155 9017 3168 9019 3169 9005
      3155 9002 3140 8992             



$$

282 
WGUS84 KJAN 010247
FLSJAN
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS
847 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2018




...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Mississippi...

  Pearl River Near Monticello affecting Lawrence County 

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Mississippi..

  Pearl River Near Rockport affecting Copiah and Simpson Counties 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive or walk through areas where water covers roadway! The 
water may be deeper than it appears. Remember...Turn around, don't 
drown!

Forecasts are based on rainfall that has occurred and that which is 
forecast to occur. Routine 24 hours of forecast rainfall is used for 
most sites. 

Additional information is available at:  
http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=jan

The next regularly scheduled update is expected tonight between 8 and
10 PM.

&&

MSC029-127-020847-
/O.CON.KJAN.FL.W.0032.000000T0000Z-180303T1200Z/
/ROCM6.1.ER.000000T0000Z.180227T1900Z.180303T0000Z.NO/
847 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2018


The Flood Warning continues for
  The Pearl River Near Rockport
* until Saturday morning.
* At  4:00 PM Wednesday the stage was 27.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 25.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue falling and will fall below 
  flood stage Friday evening.


&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 6 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Thu   Fri   Sat Crest Time  Date

Middle Pearl River 
Rockport       25  27.5 Wed 04 PM  25.5  24.6  23.9  Falling         


&&


LAT...LON 3168 9019 3178 9019 3193 9025 3198 9012
      3182 9005 3169 9005             



$$

MSC077-020846-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0028.000000T0000Z-180304T1200Z/
/MTCM6.1.ER.180227T1200Z.180301T1200Z.180304T0000Z.NO/
847 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2018


The Flood Warning continues for
  The Pearl River Near Monticello
* until Sunday morning.
* At  8:15 PM Wednesday the stage was 23.7 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 22.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 24.0 feet  
  tomorrow morning. 
* Impact...At 24.0 feet...Water appears in low areas in the extreme 
  eastern portion of the city of Monticello.



&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 6 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Thu   Fri   Sat Crest Time  Date

Middle Pearl River 
Monticello     22  23.7 Wed 08 PM  23.3  22.5  21.6  24.0 06 AM 03/01


&&


LAT...LON 3140 9008 3155 9017 3168 9019 3169 9005
      3155 9002 3140 8992             



$$

384 
WGUS84 KJAN 011618
FLSJAN
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS
1018 AM CST Thu Mar 1 2018




...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Mississippi...

  Pearl River Above Philadelphia affecting Neshoba County 
  Pearl River Near Carthage affecting Leake County 
  Pearl River Near Rockport affecting Copiah and Simpson Counties 
  Pearl River Near Monticello affecting Lawrence County 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive or walk through areas where water covers roadway! The 
water may be deeper than it appears. Remember...Turn around, don't 
drown!

Forecasts are based on rainfall that has occurred and that which is 
forecast to occur. Routine 24 hours of forecast rainfall is used for 
most sites. 

Additional information is available at:  
http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=jan

The next regularly scheduled update is expected tonight between 8 and
10 PM.

&&

MSC099-022218-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0024.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/PLAM6.1.ER.180301T1800Z.180303T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1018 AM CST Thu Mar 1 2018

...Flood Warning extended until further notice...

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Pearl River Above Philadelphia
* until further notice.
* At  9:45 AM Thursday the stage was 13.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage this afternoon and
  will continue to rise to near 14.0 feet tomorrow evening.
* Impact...At 14.0 feet...Water begins to cover some of the Burnside 
  Lake Water Park roadways and camp areas.


&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 6 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Fri   Sat   Sun Crest Time  Date

Upper Pearl River
Philadelphia   13  13.0 Thu 10 AM  13.5  13.9  13.6  14.0 06 PM 03/02


&&


LAT...LON 3289 8922 3291 8915 3293 8902 3292 8893
      3284 8892 3277 8918             



$$

MSC079-022217-
/O.CON.KJAN.FL.W.0031.180306T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CARM6.1.ER.180306T0000Z.180306T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1018 AM CST Thu Mar 1 2018


The Flood Warning continues for
  The Pearl River Near Carthage
* from Monday evening until further notice.
* At  9:45 AM Thursday the stage was 14.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to near flood stage Monday
  evening.
* Impact...At 17.0 feet...Minor overbank flooding of low areas along 
  and near the river is occurring.

&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 6 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Fri   Sat   Sun Crest Time  Date

Upper Pearl River
Carthage       17  14.0 Thu 10 AM  14.5  15.1  15.9  17.0 06 PM 03/05


&&


LAT...LON 3271 8964 3277 8956 3280 8951 3268 8946
      3266 8952 3263 8960             



$$

MSC029-127-022217-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0032.000000T0000Z-180303T1800Z/
/ROCM6.1.ER.000000T0000Z.180227T1900Z.180303T0600Z.NO/
1018 AM CST Thu Mar 1 2018

...Flood Warning extended until Saturday afternoon...

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Pearl River Near Rockport
* until Saturday afternoon.
* At  6:30 AM Thursday the stage was 26.9 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 25.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue falling and will fall below 
  flood stage early Saturday morning.

&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 6 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Fri   Sat   Sun Crest Time  Date

Middle Pearl River 
Rockport       25  26.9 Thu 06 AM  25.7  24.9  24.3 Falling blo FS sat          


&&


LAT...LON 3168 9019 3178 9019 3193 9025 3198 9012
      3182 9005 3169 9005             



$$

MSC077-022217-
/O.CON.KJAN.FL.W.0028.000000T0000Z-180304T1200Z/
/MTCM6.1.ER.180227T1200Z.180301T1145Z.180304T0000Z.NO/
1018 AM CST Thu Mar 1 2018


The Flood Warning continues for
  The Pearl River Near Monticello
* until Sunday morning.
* At  9:15 AM Thursday the stage was 23.7 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 22.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is cresting and will begin falling and will fall below 
  flood stage Saturday evening.


&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 6 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Fri   Sat   Sun Crest Time  Date

Middle Pearl River 
Monticello     22  23.7 Thu 09 AM  23.2  22.4  21.7    Cresting          


&&


LAT...LON 3140 9008 3155 9017 3168 9019 3169 9005
      3155 9002 3140 8992             



$$

564 
WGUS84 KJAN 020215
FLSJAN
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS
815 PM CST Thu Mar 1 2018


...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Mississippi...

  Pearl River Above Philadelphia affecting Neshoba County 
  Pearl River Near Carthage affecting Leake County 
  Pearl River Near Rockport affecting Copiah and Simpson Counties 
  Pearl River Near Monticello affecting Lawrence County 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive or walk through areas where water covers roadway! The 
water may be deeper than it appears. Remember...Turn around, don't 
drown!

Forecasts are based on rainfall that has occurred and that which is 
forecast to occur. Routine 24 hours of forecast rainfall is used for 
most sites.

The next regularly scheduled update is expected between 8 and 10 AM.

&&

MSC099-030815-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0024.000000T0000Z-180306T1200Z/
/PLAM6.1.ER.180301T2015Z.180303T1200Z.180306T0000Z.NO/
815 PM CST Thu Mar 1 2018


The Flood Warning continues for
  The Pearl River Above Philadelphia
* until Tuesday morning.
* At 7:45 PM Thursday the stage was 13.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue to rise to near 14.0 feet  
  Saturday morning.
* Impact...At 14.0 feet...Water begins to cover some of the Burnside 
  Lake Water Park roadways and camp areas.

&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 6 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Fri   Sat   Sun Crest Time  Date

Upper Pearl River
Philadelphia   13  13.0 Thu 08 PM  13.1  14.0  13.7  14.0 06 AM 03/03


&&


LAT...LON 3289 8922 3291 8915 3293 8902 3292 8893
      3284 8892 3277 8918             



$$

MSC079-030815-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0031.180306T0000Z-180307T0000Z/
/CARM6.1.ER.180306T0000Z.180306T0000Z.180306T1200Z.NO/
815 PM CST Thu Mar 1 2018


The Flood Warning continues for
  The Pearl River Near Carthage
* from Monday evening to Tuesday evening.
* At 7:45 PM Thursday the stage was 14.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to near flood stage Monday
  evening.
* Impact...At 17.0 feet...Minor overbank flooding of low areas along 
  and near the river is occurring.

&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 6 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Fri   Sat   Sun Crest Time  Date

Upper Pearl River
Carthage       17  14.0 Thu 08 PM  13.8  13.9  14.3  17.0 12 AM 03/06


&&


LAT...LON 3271 8964 3277 8956 3280 8951 3268 8946
      3266 8952 3263 8960             



$$

MSC029-127-030815-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0032.000000T0000Z-180303T2100Z/
/ROCM6.1.ER.000000T0000Z.180227T1900Z.180303T0900Z.NO/
815 PM CST Thu Mar 1 2018

...Flood Warning extended until Saturday afternoon...

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Pearl River Near Rockport
* until Saturday afternoon.
* At 6:00 PM Thursday the stage was 26.2 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 25.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue falling and will fall below 
  flood stage Saturday morning.

&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 6 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Fri   Sat   Sun Crest Time  Date

Middle Pearl River 
Rockport       25  26.9 Thu 06 AM  25.6  24.9  24.2 Falling blo FS Sat          


&&


LAT...LON 3168 9019 3178 9019 3193 9025 3198 9012
      3182 9005 3169 9005             



$$

MSC077-030815-
/O.CON.KJAN.FL.W.0028.000000T0000Z-180304T1200Z/
/MTCM6.1.ER.180227T1200Z.180301T1145Z.180304T0000Z.NO/
815 PM CST Thu Mar 1 2018


The Flood Warning continues for
  The Pearl River Near Monticello
* until Sunday morning.
* At 7:15 PM Thursday the stage was 23.6 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 22.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue falling and will fall below 
  flood stage Saturday evening.

&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 6 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Fri   Sat   Sun Crest Time  Date

Middle Pearl River 
Monticello     22  23.6 Thu 07 PM  23.2  22.4  21.7 Falling blo FS Sat          


&&


LAT...LON 3140 9008 3155 9017 3168 9019 3169 9005
      3155 9002 3140 8992             



$$

359 
WGUS84 KJAN 021657
FLSJAN
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS
1057 AM CST Fri Mar 2 2018


...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Mississippi...

  Pearl River Near Rockport affecting Copiah and Simpson Counties 
  Pearl River Near Monticello affecting Lawrence County 


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive or walk through areas where water covers roadway! The 
water may be deeper than it appears. Remember...Turn around, don't 
drown!

Forecasts are based on rainfall that has occurred and that which is 
forecast to occur. Routine 24 hours of forecast rainfall is used for 
most sites. 

Additional information is available at:  
http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=jan

The next regularly scheduled update is expected tonight between 8 and
10 PM.

&&

MSC029-127-030412-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0032.000000T0000Z-180303T0412Z/
/ROCM6.1.ER.000000T0000Z.180227T1900Z.180302T1612Z.NO/
1057 AM CST Fri Mar 2 2018


The Flood Warning continues for
  The Pearl River Near Rockport
* until this evening.
* At  7:30 AM Friday the stage was 25.3 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring.
* Flood stage is 25.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue falling and will fall below 
  flood stage early this afternoon.

&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 6 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Sat   Sun   Mon Crest Time  Date

Middle Pearl River 
Rockport       25  25.3 Fri 07 AM  23.4  22.1  20.8 Fall blo fs pm tda          


&&


LAT...LON 3168 9019 3178 9019 3193 9025 3198 9012
      3182 9005 3169 9005             



$$

MSC077-032256-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0028.000000T0000Z-180304T1500Z/
/MTCM6.1.ER.180227T1200Z.180301T1145Z.180304T0300Z.NO/
1057 AM CST Fri Mar 2 2018

...Flood Warning extended until Sunday morning...

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Pearl River Near Monticello
* until Sunday morning.
* At 10:15 AM Friday the stage was 23.2 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 22.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue falling and will fall below 
  flood stage late tomorrow evening .
* Impact...At 22.0 feet...Water inundates some lowland and 
  agricultural land near the river.
* Impact...At 20.0 feet...Water begins to enter some lowland pasture 
  land in the vicinity of Monticello .

&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 6 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Sat   Sun   Mon Crest Time  Date

Middle Pearl River 
Monticello     22  23.2 Fri 10 AM  22.5  21.7  21.0  fall blo fs 3/3pm          


&&


LAT...LON 3140 9008 3155 9017 3168 9019 3169 9005
      3155 9002 3140 8992             



$$

594 
WGUS84 KJAN 022133
FLSJAN
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS
333 PM CST Fri Mar 2 2018


...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers 
in Mississippi...
 
  Pearl River Near Rockport affecting Copiah and Simpson Counties


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive or walk through areas where water covers roadway! The 
water may be deeper than it appears. Remember...Turn around, don't 
drown!

Forecasts are based on rainfall that has occurred and that which is 
forecast to occur. Routine 24 hours of forecast rainfall is used for 
most sites. 


Additional information is available at:  
http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=jan

The next regularly scheduled update is expected tonight between 8 and
10 PM.

&&

MSC029-127-022203-
/O.CAN.KJAN.FL.W.0032.000000T0000Z-180303T0412Z/
/ROCM6.1.ER.000000T0000Z.180227T1900Z.180302T1655Z.NO/
333 PM CST Fri Mar 2 2018

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Pearl River Near Rockport.
* At  3:30 PM Friday the stage was 24.6 feet.
* The river fell below flood stage at 10:55 AM Friday.
* Flood stage is 25.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river has fallen below flood stage and will continue
  to falling.

&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 6 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Sat   Sun   Mon Crest Time  Date

Middle Pearl River 
Rockport       25  24.6 Fri 03 PM  23.4  22.1  20.8 Blo FS          


&&


LAT...LON 3168 9019 3178 9019 3193 9025 3198 9012
      3182 9005 3169 9005             



$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
942 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2018

.UPDATE...
Updated for morning discussion.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Satellite imagery this morning showing clouds breaking up from the
south as mixing begins taking control in the warm sector. Mainly
just looking for airmass convection this afternoon and mainly in
the north where differential heating boundaries between
cloudy/partly cloudy areas will be most pronounced. Deeper, more
widespread convection looks to hold off until tonight along
stronger baroclinic zone to the north. Some of that heavy rain may
skirt the far northern areas, so will continue with the FFA
already in effect./26/

Prior discussion below:

Today through Tonight...The primary concerns will be the chance of
heavy rainfall with some severe weather potential. Latest rap and
satellite imagery showed the region under broad flat ridging
centered over the Lower Mississippi Valley. Meanwhile a storm system
with an associated upper trough was approaching from the southwest
US. On the surface the warm front had swept through our forecast
area along with the associated showers.

For Today with warm heights over the region expecting a warm day as
the best chance of warm advection showers will be across our
northern counties. As the storm system pushes toward the southern
plains expect to see some gusty winds of around 20 to 25 knots from
the south. An associated surface low will begin to deepen over the
Southern Plains as it tracks into Missouri by late afternoon. Pwats
will rise to around 1.7 inches during the day which could spell some
locally heavy rainfall across our northern counties...where soils
are already saturated from recent rains. Model soundings show pretty
good mixing with the warm heights for highs in the middle 70s north
to middle 80s south. Also model soundings show that we could see
some cloud breaks in the south half which will aid in highs in the
80s.

For tonight, a shortwave trough will track across the Southern
Plains with an associated cold front. A large area of rain and
thunderstorms will be ongoing mainly north of the forecast area
during the evening prior to midnight. The best chance for shear
and instability to work together for any severe potential will be
in the northwest delta region. So with the severe storms in the
northwest could see some damaging winds along with a few
tornadoes. SPC has made no changes to the severe outlook, so will
continue the current severe graphic for tonight. As far as the
heavy rain potential is concerned, we could see an additional 1
to 3 inches of training showers on top of recent rainfall
accumulations for some flooding potential not to mention the
rivers affected in the northwest delta region. WPC has made no
changes to their excessive rainfall graphic for today into
tonight. So will continue the current heavy rainfall potential
graphic as well as make no changes to the Flood Watch area
coverage in the northwest delta. As we move through the overnight
hours the instability will weaken. Latest CAM guidance shows the
best chance of any severe will in the northwest...then line of
storms will weaken as it crosses the region after midnight ahead
of the slow moving front. The flow will be parallel to the cold
front which will slow the front down frontal speed. By 12z
Thursday the frontal boundary will be from Columbus to Natchez.
CAM guidance and models also show mostly post frontal rains. It
will be a mild night with lows from the upper 50s north to the
middle 60s south./17/

Thursday through next week...

By Thursday morning, a frontal boundary will have begun to
progress through the region from the NW. There may be enough
instability leftover to result in some thunderstorms early in the
day on Thursday along the leading edge of the front, mainly in
the west, but instability will wane as the day progresses. Precip
associated with the front will be anafrontal as the front
continues it's southeastward progression, clearing the region by
early afternoon. Most locations south of I-20 only be impacted by
light post-frontal rainfall with most locations seeing less than
0.25". Drier, much cooler, air will begin to filter into the
region behind the front on Thursday evening. Lows Thursday night
will range from the mid to lower 40's. Temperatures on Friday will
be seasonal as surface high pressure settles over the region and
upper level heights build. The surface high and upper ridge will
remain parked over the region through the weekend resulting in dry
conditions. The coolest morning through the period will be on
Saturday morning as temperatures fall into the 30's areawide.

We will begin to see a return in moisture late on Sunday as the
surface high slowly pushes east, setting up return flow from the
Gulf. Models agree on a deep upper level trough swinging across
the Plains early next week, becoming negatively tilted as it
approaches the Mid MS Valley. As of now, it seems like the
ArkLaMiss will stay far enough south of the significant height
falls associated with this system to remain out of the primary
threat for severe weather; but nonetheless, a front associated
with this system will sweep through the region, increasing
rainfall chances on Monday and Tuesday. Drier, cooler than normal
weather will prevail by midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF discussion:
Taf sites early this morning were a combination of IFR/MVFR/VFR
flight conditions. Expect the best chance of showers to be in the
north which may cause some marginal visibility issues. Expect the
northern taf sites to stay MVFR while the central and south will
be VFR under partly cloudy skies for this afternoon. For tonight
with the approach of the front showers and thunderstorms will
track across the region with MVFR flight conditions, except IFR
conditions at HBG. Winds will be out of the south at 10 to 15 mph
with gusts around 20 to 25 mph. Winds will taper off around 8 to
12 knots for tonight. Some of the storms may be severe with some
heavy rainfall, mainly across the northern taf sites. /17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       81  64  70  43 /  14  59  65   5
Meridian      80  66  71  43 /  14  29  56   7
Vicksburg     79  63  70  43 /  14  64  76   5
Hattiesburg   83  66  77  47 /  14  19  57   8
Natchez       82  66  71  45 /  14  58  70   5
Greenville    75  59  67  41 /  42  85  78   3
Greenwood     77  62  66  40 /  47  80  78   3

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for MSZ018-019-025-026-034.

LA...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for LAZ007.

AR...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for ARZ074-075.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1006 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2018

ARZ074-075-LAZ007-008-MSZ018-019-025-026-034-011615-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-Bolivar-Sunflower-Leflore-
Grenada-Washington-
1006 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, north central Mississippi, and
northwest Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...The rest of Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...This afternoon through Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...This afternoon through Tonight

Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall look to develop primarily
tonight. Rainfall amounts from one to three inches will be
possible in these area which will only aggravate ongoing runoff
problems and lead to more flash flooding.

Isolated severe storms will be possible as well. Damaging winds
will be the primary threat, although a tornado cannot be ruled
out.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image1.png)
(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region rest of
today through tonight.

MSZ030-032-033-037-011615-
Clay-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Attala-
1006 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, and northeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...The rest of Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Tonight

Isolated severe storms will be possible tonight. Damaging winds
will be the primary threat, although a tornado cannot be ruled
out.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region rest of
today through tonight.

LAZ009-015-MSZ027>029-035-036-040>042-011615-
East Carroll-Richland-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Humphreys-Holmes-
Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-
1006 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central Mississippi, and
west central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...The rest of Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...remainder of today through Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...remainder of today through Tonight

Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall look to develop primarily
tonight which may lead to flooding problems.

Isolated severe storms will be possible as well. Damaging winds
will be the primary threat, although a tornado cannot be ruled
out.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image1.png)
(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region rest of
today through tonight.

LAZ016-023>026-MSZ031-038-039-043>066-072>074-011615-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Lowndes-Winston-
Noxubee-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-
Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah-Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-
Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-
Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
1006 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, central Mississippi, northeast Mississippi, and south
central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...The rest of Today and Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Tuesday.

26

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms are expected.
Moderate...Severe storms expected with significant
 severe weather possible.
Enhanced...Severe storms expected.
Slight...Severe storms possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe storms possible.

*FLOODING*
Extreme...Confident in significant flooding.
Significant...Significant flooding possible.
Elevated...Confident in flooding.
Limited...Flooding possible.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/
...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR FLOODING ISSUES...

Current Watches and Warnings...
   www.weather.gov/jan/safe_HeavyRain

Observed Precipitation Images...
   www.weather.gov/jan/precipmaps

River Forecast Center...
   www.weather.gov/lmrfc/
Significant River Flood Outlook...
   www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html
Day 1 through 3 Excessive Rainfall...
   www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml
Excessive Rainfall Discussion...
   www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpferd.html
Day 1 through 7 QPF...
   www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml
QPF Discussion...
   www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfpfd.html