Alert archive / Mississippi / River Flood Warnings in 2018

River Flood Warning 28, NWS Jackson, MS

February 26, 2018Lawrence County, Mississippi

NWS Jackson, MS issued this river flood warning at Feb 26, 2018, 9:44 AM CST for Lawrence County, Mississippi. It took effect at Feb 27, 2018, 4:30 AM CST. It was in force for 5 days.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Feb 26, 2018, 9:44 AM CST (15:44 UTC)
In effect from: Feb 27, 2018, 4:30 AM CST
Expired: Mar 3, 2018, 7:28 PM CST
In force: 5 days
Issued by: NWS Jackson, MS
Area: Storm-based polygon
Flood severity: Minor

County Lawrence County, MS

The radar

The Jackson/Brandon,MS radar (KDGX), 84 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 15:45 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Pearl River near Monticello (MTCM6). The gauge peaked at 23.75 ft at Mar 1, 2018, 1:00 AM CST.

Action stage: 21 ft
Minor stage: 22 ft
Moderate stage: 25 ft
Major stage: 33 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 02488500, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted.

321 
WGUS44 KJAN 261544
FLWJAN
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS
944 AM CST Mon Feb 26 2018


...The National Weather Service in Jackson has issued a Flood Warning
for the following rivers in Mississippi... 

  Tuscolameta Creek At Walnut Grove affecting Leake County
  Pearl River Near Monticello affecting Lawrence County



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive or walk through areas where water covers roadway! The 
water may be deeper than it appears. Remember...Turn around, don't 
drown!

Forecasts are based on rainfall that has occurred and that which is 
forecast to occur. Routine 24 hours of forecast rainfall is used for 
most sites. 

Additional information is available at:  
http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=jan

The next regularly scheduled update is expected tonight between 8 and
10 PM.

&&

MSC079-272144-
/O.NEW.KJAN.FL.W.0027.180227T0000Z-180301T1030Z/
/WTGM6.1.ER.180227T0000Z.180228T0600Z.180228T2230Z.NO/
944 AM CST Mon Feb 26 2018

The National Weather Service in Jackson has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  The Tuscolameta Creek At Walnut Grove
* from this evening to late Wednesday night.
* At  9:00 AM Monday the stage was 24.6 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 25.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage this evening and 
  will continue to rise to near 25.5 feet early Wednesday morning. 
* Impact...At 25.0 feet...Agricultural land and low areas along and 
  near the river begin to flood.

&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 6 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Tue   Wed   Thu Crest Time  Date

Tuscolameta Creek
Walnut Grove   25  24.6 Mon 09 AM  25.2  25.4  23.7  25.5 12 AM 02/28


&&


LAT...LON 3266 8953 3261 8945 3257 8935 3250 8942
      3258 8953 3263 8960             



$$

MSC077-272143-
/O.NEW.KJAN.FL.W.0028.180227T1030Z-180302T0000Z/
/MTCM6.1.ER.180227T1030Z.180228T0600Z.180301T1200Z.NO/
944 AM CST Mon Feb 26 2018

The National Weather Service in Jackson has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  The Pearl River Near Monticello
* from late tonight to Thursday evening.
* At  9:15 AM Monday the stage was 18.1 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 22.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage early tomorrow and
  will continue to rise to near 23.0 feet early Wednesday morning. 
* Impact...At 22.0 feet...Water inundates some lowland and 
  agricultural land near the river.
* Impact...At 20.0 feet...Water begins to enter some lowland pasture 
  land in the vicinity of Monticello .

&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 6 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Tue   Wed   Thu Crest Time  Date

Middle Pearl River 
Monticello     22  18.1 Mon 09 AM  22.2  22.9  22.0  23.0 12 AM 02/28


&&


LAT...LON 3140 9008 3155 9017 3168 9019 3169 9005
      3155 9002 3140 8992             



$$

13 follow-up statements

717 
WGUS84 KJAN 270251
FLSJAN
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS
851 PM CST Mon Feb 26 2018


...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Mississippi..

  Pearl River Near Monticello affecting Lawrence County 


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive or walk through areas where water covers roadway! The 
water may be deeper than it appears. Remember...Turn around, don't 
drown!

Forecasts are based on rainfall that has occurred and that which is 
forecast to occur. Routine 24 hours of forecast rainfall is used for 
most sites. 

The next regularly scheduled update is expected between 8 and 10 AM.

&&

MSC077-280851-
/O.CON.KJAN.FL.W.0028.180227T1030Z-180302T0000Z/
/MTCM6.1.ER.180227T1030Z.180228T0600Z.180301T1200Z.NO/
851 PM CST Mon Feb 26 2018


The Flood Warning continues for
  The Pearl River Near Monticello
* from late tonight to Thursday evening.
* At  8:15 PM Monday the stage was 20.8 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 22.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage early tomorrow and
  will continue to rise to near 23.0 feet by early Wednesday morning. 
* Impact...At 22.0 feet...Water inundates some lowland and 
  agricultural land near the river.

&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 6 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Tue   Wed   Thu Crest Time  Date

Middle Pearl River 
Monticello     22  20.8 Mon 08 PM  22.2  22.9  22.0  23.0 12 AM 02/28


&&


LAT...LON 3140 9008 3155 9017 3168 9019 3169 9005
      3155 9002 3140 8992             



$$

787 
WGUS84 KJAN 271624
FLSJAN
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS
1023 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2018


...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Mississippi...

  Pearl River Above Philadelphia affecting Neshoba County 
  Tuscolameta Creek At Walnut Grove affecting Leake County 
  Pearl River Near Monticello affecting Lawrence County 


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive or walk through areas where water covers roadway! The 
water may be deeper than it appears. Remember...Turn around, don't 
drown!

Forecasts are based on rainfall that has occurred and that which is 
forecast to occur. Routine 24 hours of forecast rainfall is used for 
most sites. 

Additional information is available at:  
http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=jan

The next regularly scheduled update is expected tonight between 8 and
10 PM.

&&

MSC099-282223-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0024.180301T1200Z-000000T0000Z/
/PLAM6.1.ER.180301T1200Z.180303T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1023 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2018


The Flood Warning continues for
  The Pearl River Above Philadelphia
* from Thursday morning until further notice.
* At  9:45 AM Tuesday the stage was 11.8 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage Thursday morning 
  and will continue to rise to near 14.0 feet Saturday morning.
* Impact...At 14.0 feet...Water begins to cover some of the Burnside 
  Lake Water Park roadways and camp areas.
* Impact...At 13.0 feet...Water begins to affect Burnside Lake Water 
  Park.

&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 6 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Wed   Thu   Fri Crest Time  Date

Upper Pearl River
Philadelphia   13  11.8 Tue 10 AM  12.4  13.0  13.6  14.0 06 AM 03/03


&&


LAT...LON 3289 8922 3291 8915 3293 8902 3292 8893
      3284 8892 3277 8918             



$$

MSC079-282222-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0027.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/WTGM6.1.ER.180226T2230Z.180228T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1023 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2018

...Flood Warning extended until further notice...

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Tuscolameta Creek At Walnut Grove
* until further notice.
* At 10:00 AM Tuesday the stage was 25.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 25.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 26.0 feet 
  tomorrow morning.

&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 6 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Wed   Thu   Fri Crest Time  Date

Tuscolameta Creek
Walnut Grove   25  25.5 Tue 10 AM  26.0  25.9  25.8  26.0 06 AM 02/28


&&


LAT...LON 3266 8953 3261 8945 3257 8935 3250 8942
      3258 8953 3263 8960             



$$

MSC077-282222-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0028.000000T0000Z-180302T1800Z/
/MTCM6.1.ER.180227T1200Z.180228T1200Z.180302T0600Z.NO/
1023 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2018

...Flood Warning extended until Friday afternoon...

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Pearl River Near Monticello
* until Friday afternoon.
* At  9:15 AM Tuesday the stage was 22.3 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 22.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 23.0 feet  
  tomorrow morning. 


&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 6 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Wed   Thu   Fri Crest Time  Date

Middle Pearl River 
Monticello     22  22.3 Tue 09 AM  23.0  22.4  21.8  23.0 06 AM 02/28


&&


LAT...LON 3140 9008 3155 9017 3168 9019 3169 9005
      3155 9002 3140 8992             



$$

795 
WGUS84 KJAN 280331
FLSJAN
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS
931 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2018


...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Mississippi..

  Pearl River Above Philadelphia affecting Neshoba County 
  Tuscolameta Creek At Walnut Grove affecting Leake County 
  Pearl River Near Monticello affecting Lawrence County 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive or walk through areas where water covers roadway! The 
water may be deeper than it appears. Remember...Turn around, don't 
drown!

Forecasts are based on rainfall that has occurred and that which is 
forecast to occur. Routine 24 hours of forecast rainfall is used for 
most sites. 

The next regularly scheduled update is expected between 8 and 10 AM.

&&

MSC099-010931-
/O.CON.KJAN.FL.W.0024.180301T1200Z-000000T0000Z/
/PLAM6.1.ER.180301T1200Z.180303T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
931 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2018


The Flood Warning continues for
  The Pearl River Above Philadelphia
* from Thursday morning until further notice.
* At 8:45 PM Tuesday the stage was 11.9 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage Thursday morning 
  and will continue to rise to near 14.0 feet Saturday morning.
* Impact...At 14.0 feet...Water begins to cover some of the Burnside 
  Lake Water Park roadways and camp areas.
* Impact...At 13.0 feet...Water begins to affect Burnside Lake Water 
  Park.

&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 6 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Wed   Thu   Fri Crest Time  Date

Upper Pearl River
Philadelphia   13  11.9 Tue 09 PM  12.1  13.0  13.6  14.0 06 AM 03/03


&&


LAT...LON 3289 8922 3291 8915 3293 8902 3292 8893
      3284 8892 3277 8918             



$$

MSC079-010930-
/O.CON.KJAN.FL.W.0027.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/WTGM6.1.ER.180226T2230Z.180228T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
931 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2018


The Flood Warning continues for
  The Tuscolameta Creek At Walnut Grove
* until further notice.
* At 9:00 PM Tuesday the stage was 26.1 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 25.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 26.5 feet 
  tomorrow morning.
* Impact...At 27.0 feet...Agricultural land along the river is 
  flooding.

&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 6 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Wed   Thu   Fri Crest Time  Date

Tuscolameta Creek
Walnut Grove   25  26.1 Tue 09 PM  26.5  26.3  25.9  26.5 06 AM 02/28


&&


LAT...LON 3266 8953 3261 8945 3257 8935 3250 8942
      3258 8953 3263 8960             



$$

MSC077-010930-
/O.CON.KJAN.FL.W.0028.000000T0000Z-180302T1800Z/
/MTCM6.1.ER.180227T1200Z.180228T0315Z.180302T0600Z.NO/
931 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2018


The Flood Warning continues for
  The Pearl River Near Monticello
* until Friday afternoon.
* At 9:15 PM Tuesday the stage was 23.1 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 22.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is cresting and will begin falling tomorrow.

&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 6 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Wed   Thu   Fri Crest Time  Date

Middle Pearl River 
Monticello     22  23.1 Tue 09 PM  22.9  22.4  21.8     Cresting          


&&


LAT...LON 3140 9008 3155 9017 3168 9019 3169 9005
      3155 9002 3140 8992             



$$

116 
WGUS84 KJAN 281718
FLSJAN
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS
1118 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2018

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Mississippi...

  Pearl River Near Monticello affecting Lawrence County.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive or walk through areas where water covers roadway! The 
water may be deeper than it appears. Remember...Turn around, don't 
drown!

Forecasts are based on rainfall that has occurred and that which is 
forecast to occur. Routine 24 hours of forecast rainfall is used for 
most sites. Routine 48 hours of forecast rainfall is used on Tibbee 
Creek...Luxapallila Creek...Noxubee River...and the Tombigbee River.

The next regularly scheduled update is expected tonight between 8 and
10 PM.

&&

MSC077-012318-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0028.000000T0000Z-180305T1500Z/
/MTCM6.1.ER.180227T1200Z.180301T1200Z.180305T0300Z.NO/
1118 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2018

...Flood Warning extended until Monday morning...

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Pearl River Near Monticello
* until Monday morning.
* At 10:15 AM Wednesday the stage was 23.6 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 22.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 24.0 feet  
  tomorrow morning. The river will fall below flood stage Sunday 
  before midnight.
* Impact...At 24.0 feet...Water appears in low areas in the extreme 
  eastern portion of the city of Monticello.

&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 6 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Thu   Fri   Sat Crest Time  Date

Middle Pearl River 
Monticello     22  23.6 Wed 10 AM  24.0  23.7  23.1  24.0 06 AM 03/01


&&


LAT...LON 3140 9008 3155 9017 3168 9019 3169 9005
      3155 9002 3140 8992             



$$

270 
WGUS84 KJAN 281959
FLSJAN
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS
159 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2018



...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Mississippi...

  
  Pearl River Above Philadelphia affecting Neshoba County 
  Pearl River Near Carthage affecting Leake County 
  Tuscolameta Creek At Walnut Grove affecting Leake County 
  Pearl River Near Rockport affecting Copiah and Simpson Counties 
  Pearl River Near Monticello affecting Lawrence County 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive or walk through areas where water covers roadway! The 
water may be deeper than it appears. Remember...Turn around, don't 
drown!

Forecasts are based on rainfall that has occurred and that which is 
forecast to occur. Routine 24 hours of forecast rainfall is used for 
most sites. 

Additional information is available at:  
http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=jan

The next regularly scheduled update is expected tonight between 8 and
10 PM.

&&

MSC099-020159-
/O.CON.KJAN.FL.W.0024.180301T0600Z-000000T0000Z/
/PLAM6.1.ER.180301T0600Z.180303T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
159 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2018


The Flood Warning continues for
  The Pearl River Above Philadelphia
* from late tonight until further notice.
* At 12:45 PM Wednesday the stage was 12.7 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage just after 
  midnight tonight and will continue to rise to near 14.0 feet Friday
  evening.
* Impact...At 14.0 feet...Water begins to cover some of the Burnside 
  Lake Water Park roadways and camp areas.
* Impact...At 13.0 feet...Water begins to affect Burnside Lake Water 
  Park.

&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 6 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Thu   Fri   Sat Crest Time  Date

Upper Pearl River
Philadelphia   13  12.7 Wed 01 PM  13.2  13.8  14.0  14.0 06 PM 03/02


&&


LAT...LON 3289 8922 3291 8915 3293 8902 3292 8893
      3284 8892 3277 8918             



$$

MSC079-020159-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0031.180306T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CARM6.1.ER.180306T0000Z.180306T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
159 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2018

...Flood Warning extended until further notice...

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Pearl River Near Carthage
* from Monday evening until further notice.
* At 12:45 PM Wednesday the stage was 13.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to near flood stage Monday
  evening.
* Impact...At 17.0 feet...Minor overbank flooding of low areas along 
  and near the river is occurring.

&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 6 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Thu   Fri   Sat Crest Time  Date

Upper Pearl River
Carthage       17  13.7 Wed 01 PM  14.4  14.9  15.2  17.0 06 PM 03/05


&&


LAT...LON 3271 8964 3277 8956 3280 8951 3268 8946
      3266 8952 3263 8960             



$$

MSC079-020159-
/O.CON.KJAN.FL.W.0027.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/WTGM6.1.ER.180226T2230Z.180228T1500Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
159 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2018


The Flood Warning continues for
  The Tuscolameta Creek At Walnut Grove
* until further notice.
* At  1:00 PM Wednesday the stage was 26.2 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 25.0 feet.
* Forecast...The creek has crested and will fall very slowly.


&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 6 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Thu   Fri   Sat Crest Time  Date

Tuscolameta Creek
Walnut Grove   25  26.2 Wed 01 PM  26.1  25.6  25.4 crested         


&&


LAT...LON 3266 8953 3261 8945 3257 8935 3250 8942
      3258 8953 3263 8960             



$$

MSC029-127-020158-
/O.CON.KJAN.FL.W.0032.000000T0000Z-180303T1200Z/
/ROCM6.1.ER.000000T0000Z.180227T1900Z.180303T0000Z.NO/
159 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2018


The Flood Warning continues for
  The Pearl River Near Rockport
* until Saturday morning.
* At  7:00 AM Wednesday the stage was 27.8 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 25.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river has crested and will fall below 
  flood stage Friday evening.

&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 6 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Thu   Fri   Sat Crest Time  Date

Middle Pearl River 
Rockport       25  27.8 Wed 07 AM  26.8  25.5  24.6  crested         


&&


LAT...LON 3168 9019 3178 9019 3193 9025 3198 9012
      3182 9005 3169 9005             



$$

MSC077-020158-
/O.CON.KJAN.FL.W.0028.000000T0000Z-180305T1500Z/
/MTCM6.1.ER.180227T1200Z.180301T1200Z.180305T0300Z.NO/
159 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2018


The Flood Warning continues for
  The Pearl River Near Monticello
* until Monday morning.
* At  1:15 PM Wednesday the stage was 23.6 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 22.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 24.0 feet  
  tomorrow morning. 
* Impact...At 24.0 feet...Water appears in low areas in the extreme 
  eastern portion of the city of Monticello.



&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 6 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Thu   Fri   Sat Crest Time  Date

Middle Pearl River 
Monticello     22  23.6 Wed 01 PM  24.0  23.7  23.1  24.0 06 AM 03/01


&&


LAT...LON 3140 9008 3155 9017 3168 9019 3169 9005
      3155 9002 3140 8992             



$$

282 
WGUS84 KJAN 010247
FLSJAN
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS
847 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2018




...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Mississippi...

  Pearl River Near Monticello affecting Lawrence County 

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Mississippi..

  Pearl River Near Rockport affecting Copiah and Simpson Counties 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive or walk through areas where water covers roadway! The 
water may be deeper than it appears. Remember...Turn around, don't 
drown!

Forecasts are based on rainfall that has occurred and that which is 
forecast to occur. Routine 24 hours of forecast rainfall is used for 
most sites. 

Additional information is available at:  
http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=jan

The next regularly scheduled update is expected tonight between 8 and
10 PM.

&&

MSC029-127-020847-
/O.CON.KJAN.FL.W.0032.000000T0000Z-180303T1200Z/
/ROCM6.1.ER.000000T0000Z.180227T1900Z.180303T0000Z.NO/
847 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2018


The Flood Warning continues for
  The Pearl River Near Rockport
* until Saturday morning.
* At  4:00 PM Wednesday the stage was 27.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 25.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue falling and will fall below 
  flood stage Friday evening.


&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 6 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Thu   Fri   Sat Crest Time  Date

Middle Pearl River 
Rockport       25  27.5 Wed 04 PM  25.5  24.6  23.9  Falling         


&&


LAT...LON 3168 9019 3178 9019 3193 9025 3198 9012
      3182 9005 3169 9005             



$$

MSC077-020846-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0028.000000T0000Z-180304T1200Z/
/MTCM6.1.ER.180227T1200Z.180301T1200Z.180304T0000Z.NO/
847 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2018


The Flood Warning continues for
  The Pearl River Near Monticello
* until Sunday morning.
* At  8:15 PM Wednesday the stage was 23.7 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 22.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 24.0 feet  
  tomorrow morning. 
* Impact...At 24.0 feet...Water appears in low areas in the extreme 
  eastern portion of the city of Monticello.



&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 6 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Thu   Fri   Sat Crest Time  Date

Middle Pearl River 
Monticello     22  23.7 Wed 08 PM  23.3  22.5  21.6  24.0 06 AM 03/01


&&


LAT...LON 3140 9008 3155 9017 3168 9019 3169 9005
      3155 9002 3140 8992             



$$

384 
WGUS84 KJAN 011618
FLSJAN
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS
1018 AM CST Thu Mar 1 2018




...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Mississippi...

  Pearl River Above Philadelphia affecting Neshoba County 
  Pearl River Near Carthage affecting Leake County 
  Pearl River Near Rockport affecting Copiah and Simpson Counties 
  Pearl River Near Monticello affecting Lawrence County 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive or walk through areas where water covers roadway! The 
water may be deeper than it appears. Remember...Turn around, don't 
drown!

Forecasts are based on rainfall that has occurred and that which is 
forecast to occur. Routine 24 hours of forecast rainfall is used for 
most sites. 

Additional information is available at:  
http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=jan

The next regularly scheduled update is expected tonight between 8 and
10 PM.

&&

MSC099-022218-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0024.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/PLAM6.1.ER.180301T1800Z.180303T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1018 AM CST Thu Mar 1 2018

...Flood Warning extended until further notice...

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Pearl River Above Philadelphia
* until further notice.
* At  9:45 AM Thursday the stage was 13.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage this afternoon and
  will continue to rise to near 14.0 feet tomorrow evening.
* Impact...At 14.0 feet...Water begins to cover some of the Burnside 
  Lake Water Park roadways and camp areas.


&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 6 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Fri   Sat   Sun Crest Time  Date

Upper Pearl River
Philadelphia   13  13.0 Thu 10 AM  13.5  13.9  13.6  14.0 06 PM 03/02


&&


LAT...LON 3289 8922 3291 8915 3293 8902 3292 8893
      3284 8892 3277 8918             



$$

MSC079-022217-
/O.CON.KJAN.FL.W.0031.180306T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CARM6.1.ER.180306T0000Z.180306T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1018 AM CST Thu Mar 1 2018


The Flood Warning continues for
  The Pearl River Near Carthage
* from Monday evening until further notice.
* At  9:45 AM Thursday the stage was 14.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to near flood stage Monday
  evening.
* Impact...At 17.0 feet...Minor overbank flooding of low areas along 
  and near the river is occurring.

&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 6 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Fri   Sat   Sun Crest Time  Date

Upper Pearl River
Carthage       17  14.0 Thu 10 AM  14.5  15.1  15.9  17.0 06 PM 03/05


&&


LAT...LON 3271 8964 3277 8956 3280 8951 3268 8946
      3266 8952 3263 8960             



$$

MSC029-127-022217-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0032.000000T0000Z-180303T1800Z/
/ROCM6.1.ER.000000T0000Z.180227T1900Z.180303T0600Z.NO/
1018 AM CST Thu Mar 1 2018

...Flood Warning extended until Saturday afternoon...

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Pearl River Near Rockport
* until Saturday afternoon.
* At  6:30 AM Thursday the stage was 26.9 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 25.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue falling and will fall below 
  flood stage early Saturday morning.

&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 6 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Fri   Sat   Sun Crest Time  Date

Middle Pearl River 
Rockport       25  26.9 Thu 06 AM  25.7  24.9  24.3 Falling blo FS sat          


&&


LAT...LON 3168 9019 3178 9019 3193 9025 3198 9012
      3182 9005 3169 9005             



$$

MSC077-022217-
/O.CON.KJAN.FL.W.0028.000000T0000Z-180304T1200Z/
/MTCM6.1.ER.180227T1200Z.180301T1145Z.180304T0000Z.NO/
1018 AM CST Thu Mar 1 2018


The Flood Warning continues for
  The Pearl River Near Monticello
* until Sunday morning.
* At  9:15 AM Thursday the stage was 23.7 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 22.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is cresting and will begin falling and will fall below 
  flood stage Saturday evening.


&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 6 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Fri   Sat   Sun Crest Time  Date

Middle Pearl River 
Monticello     22  23.7 Thu 09 AM  23.2  22.4  21.7    Cresting          


&&


LAT...LON 3140 9008 3155 9017 3168 9019 3169 9005
      3155 9002 3140 8992             



$$

564 
WGUS84 KJAN 020215
FLSJAN
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS
815 PM CST Thu Mar 1 2018


...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Mississippi...

  Pearl River Above Philadelphia affecting Neshoba County 
  Pearl River Near Carthage affecting Leake County 
  Pearl River Near Rockport affecting Copiah and Simpson Counties 
  Pearl River Near Monticello affecting Lawrence County 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive or walk through areas where water covers roadway! The 
water may be deeper than it appears. Remember...Turn around, don't 
drown!

Forecasts are based on rainfall that has occurred and that which is 
forecast to occur. Routine 24 hours of forecast rainfall is used for 
most sites.

The next regularly scheduled update is expected between 8 and 10 AM.

&&

MSC099-030815-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0024.000000T0000Z-180306T1200Z/
/PLAM6.1.ER.180301T2015Z.180303T1200Z.180306T0000Z.NO/
815 PM CST Thu Mar 1 2018


The Flood Warning continues for
  The Pearl River Above Philadelphia
* until Tuesday morning.
* At 7:45 PM Thursday the stage was 13.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue to rise to near 14.0 feet  
  Saturday morning.
* Impact...At 14.0 feet...Water begins to cover some of the Burnside 
  Lake Water Park roadways and camp areas.

&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 6 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Fri   Sat   Sun Crest Time  Date

Upper Pearl River
Philadelphia   13  13.0 Thu 08 PM  13.1  14.0  13.7  14.0 06 AM 03/03


&&


LAT...LON 3289 8922 3291 8915 3293 8902 3292 8893
      3284 8892 3277 8918             



$$

MSC079-030815-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0031.180306T0000Z-180307T0000Z/
/CARM6.1.ER.180306T0000Z.180306T0000Z.180306T1200Z.NO/
815 PM CST Thu Mar 1 2018


The Flood Warning continues for
  The Pearl River Near Carthage
* from Monday evening to Tuesday evening.
* At 7:45 PM Thursday the stage was 14.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to near flood stage Monday
  evening.
* Impact...At 17.0 feet...Minor overbank flooding of low areas along 
  and near the river is occurring.

&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 6 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Fri   Sat   Sun Crest Time  Date

Upper Pearl River
Carthage       17  14.0 Thu 08 PM  13.8  13.9  14.3  17.0 12 AM 03/06


&&


LAT...LON 3271 8964 3277 8956 3280 8951 3268 8946
      3266 8952 3263 8960             



$$

MSC029-127-030815-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0032.000000T0000Z-180303T2100Z/
/ROCM6.1.ER.000000T0000Z.180227T1900Z.180303T0900Z.NO/
815 PM CST Thu Mar 1 2018

...Flood Warning extended until Saturday afternoon...

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Pearl River Near Rockport
* until Saturday afternoon.
* At 6:00 PM Thursday the stage was 26.2 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 25.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue falling and will fall below 
  flood stage Saturday morning.

&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 6 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Fri   Sat   Sun Crest Time  Date

Middle Pearl River 
Rockport       25  26.9 Thu 06 AM  25.6  24.9  24.2 Falling blo FS Sat          


&&


LAT...LON 3168 9019 3178 9019 3193 9025 3198 9012
      3182 9005 3169 9005             



$$

MSC077-030815-
/O.CON.KJAN.FL.W.0028.000000T0000Z-180304T1200Z/
/MTCM6.1.ER.180227T1200Z.180301T1145Z.180304T0000Z.NO/
815 PM CST Thu Mar 1 2018


The Flood Warning continues for
  The Pearl River Near Monticello
* until Sunday morning.
* At 7:15 PM Thursday the stage was 23.6 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 22.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue falling and will fall below 
  flood stage Saturday evening.

&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 6 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Fri   Sat   Sun Crest Time  Date

Middle Pearl River 
Monticello     22  23.6 Thu 07 PM  23.2  22.4  21.7 Falling blo FS Sat          


&&


LAT...LON 3140 9008 3155 9017 3168 9019 3169 9005
      3155 9002 3140 8992             



$$

359 
WGUS84 KJAN 021657
FLSJAN
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS
1057 AM CST Fri Mar 2 2018


...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Mississippi...

  Pearl River Near Rockport affecting Copiah and Simpson Counties 
  Pearl River Near Monticello affecting Lawrence County 


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive or walk through areas where water covers roadway! The 
water may be deeper than it appears. Remember...Turn around, don't 
drown!

Forecasts are based on rainfall that has occurred and that which is 
forecast to occur. Routine 24 hours of forecast rainfall is used for 
most sites. 

Additional information is available at:  
http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=jan

The next regularly scheduled update is expected tonight between 8 and
10 PM.

&&

MSC029-127-030412-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0032.000000T0000Z-180303T0412Z/
/ROCM6.1.ER.000000T0000Z.180227T1900Z.180302T1612Z.NO/
1057 AM CST Fri Mar 2 2018


The Flood Warning continues for
  The Pearl River Near Rockport
* until this evening.
* At  7:30 AM Friday the stage was 25.3 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring.
* Flood stage is 25.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue falling and will fall below 
  flood stage early this afternoon.

&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 6 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Sat   Sun   Mon Crest Time  Date

Middle Pearl River 
Rockport       25  25.3 Fri 07 AM  23.4  22.1  20.8 Fall blo fs pm tda          


&&


LAT...LON 3168 9019 3178 9019 3193 9025 3198 9012
      3182 9005 3169 9005             



$$

MSC077-032256-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0028.000000T0000Z-180304T1500Z/
/MTCM6.1.ER.180227T1200Z.180301T1145Z.180304T0300Z.NO/
1057 AM CST Fri Mar 2 2018

...Flood Warning extended until Sunday morning...

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Pearl River Near Monticello
* until Sunday morning.
* At 10:15 AM Friday the stage was 23.2 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 22.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue falling and will fall below 
  flood stage late tomorrow evening .
* Impact...At 22.0 feet...Water inundates some lowland and 
  agricultural land near the river.
* Impact...At 20.0 feet...Water begins to enter some lowland pasture 
  land in the vicinity of Monticello .

&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 6 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Sat   Sun   Mon Crest Time  Date

Middle Pearl River 
Monticello     22  23.2 Fri 10 AM  22.5  21.7  21.0  fall blo fs 3/3pm          


&&


LAT...LON 3140 9008 3155 9017 3168 9019 3169 9005
      3155 9002 3140 8992             



$$

873 
WGUS84 KJAN 030253
FLSJAN
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS
853 PM CST Fri Mar 2 2018


...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Mississippi..

  Pearl River Near Monticello affecting Lawrence County 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive or walk through areas where water covers roadway! The 
water may be deeper than it appears. Remember...Turn around, don't 
drown!

Forecasts are based on rainfall that has occurred and that which is 
forecast to occur. Routine 24 hours of forecast rainfall is used for 
most sites.

The next regularly scheduled update is expected between 8 and 10 AM.

&&

MSC077-040853-
/O.CON.KJAN.FL.W.0028.000000T0000Z-180304T1500Z/
/MTCM6.1.ER.180227T1200Z.180301T1145Z.180304T0300Z.NO/
853 PM CST Fri Mar 2 2018


The Flood Warning continues for
  The Pearl River Near Monticello
* until Sunday morning.
* At 8:15 PM Friday the stage was 22.9 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 22.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue falling and will fall below 
  flood stage late tomorrow evening.

&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 6 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Sat   Sun   Mon Crest Time  Date

Middle Pearl River 
Monticello     22  22.9 Fri 08 PM  22.5  21.7  21.0     Falling          


&&


LAT...LON 3140 9008 3155 9017 3168 9019 3169 9005
      3155 9002 3140 8992             



$$

555 
WGUS84 KJAN 031433
FLSJAN
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS
833 AM CST Sat Mar 3 2018




...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Mississippi...

  Pearl River Near Monticello affecting Lawrence County 


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive or walk through areas where water covers roadway! The 
water may be deeper than it appears. Remember...Turn around, don't 
drown!


Additional information is available at:  
http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=jan

The next regularly scheduled update is expected tonight between 8 and
10 PM.

&&

MSC077-041200-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0028.000000T0000Z-180304T1200Z/
/MTCM6.1.ER.180227T1200Z.180301T1145Z.180304T0000Z.NO/
833 AM CST Sat Mar 3 2018


The Flood Warning continues for
  The Pearl River Near Monticello
* until Sunday morning.
* At  8:15 AM Saturday the stage was 22.3 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 22.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue falling and will fall below 
  flood stage this evening.
* Impact...At 22.0 feet...Water inundates some lowland and 
  agricultural land near the river.
* Impact...At 20.0 feet...Water begins to enter some lowland pasture 
  land in the vicinity of Monticello .

&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 6 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Sun   Mon   Tue Crest Time  Date

Middle Pearl River 
Monticello     22  22.3 Sat 08 AM  21.6  20.8  20.1     river falling   


&&


LAT...LON 3140 9008 3155 9017 3168 9019 3169 9005
      3155 9002 3140 8992             



$$

332 
WGUS84 KJAN 031748
FLSJAN
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS
1148 AM CST Sat Mar 3 2018





...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Mississippi..

  Pearl River Near Monticello affecting Lawrence County 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive or walk through areas where water covers roadway! The 
water may be deeper than it appears. Remember...Turn around, don't 
drown!


Additional information is available at:  
http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=jan

The next regularly scheduled update is expected tonight between 8 and
10 PM.

&&

MSC077-041200-
/O.CON.KJAN.FL.W.0028.000000T0000Z-180304T1200Z/
/MTCM6.1.ER.180227T1200Z.180301T1145Z.180304T0000Z.NO/
1148 AM CST Sat Mar 3 2018


The Flood Warning continues for
  The Pearl River Near Monticello
* until Sunday morning.
* At 11:15 AM Saturday the stage was 22.2 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast: The river will fall below flood stage late this evening. 
* Flood stage is 22.0 feet.
* Impact...At 22.0 feet...Water inundates some lowland and 
  agricultural land near the river.
* Impact...At 20.0 feet...Water begins to enter some lowland pasture 
  land in the vicinity of Monticello .

&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 6 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Sun   Mon   Tue Crest Time  Date

Middle Pearl River 
Monticello     22  22.2 Sat 11 AM  21.6  20.8  20.1     river falling       


&&


LAT...LON 3140 9008 3155 9017 3168 9019 3169 9005
      3155 9002 3140 8992             



$$

688 
WGUS84 KJAN 040128
FLSJAN
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS
728 PM CST Sat Mar 3 2018

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following river in Mississippi...
 
  Pearl River Near Monticello affecting Lawrence County

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive or walk through areas where water covers roadway! The 
water may be deeper than it appears. Remember...Turn around, don't 
drown!

Forecasts are based on rainfall that has occurred and that which is 
forecast to occur. Routine 24 hours of forecast rainfall is used for 
most sites. Routine 48 hours of forecast rainfall is used on Tibbee 
Creek...Luxapallila Creek...Noxubee River...and the Tombigbee River.

The next regularly scheduled update is expected between 8 and 10 AM.

&&

MSC077-040158-
/O.CAN.KJAN.FL.W.0028.000000T0000Z-180304T1200Z/
/MTCM6.1.ER.180227T1200Z.180301T1145Z.180303T2015Z.NO/
728 PM CST Sat Mar 3 2018

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Pearl River Near Monticello.
* At 7:15 PM Saturday the stage was 21.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 22.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to 20.1 feet Monday 
  morning.
* Impact...At 22.0 feet...Water inundates some lowland and 
  agricultural land near the river.
* Impact...At 20.0 feet...Water begins to enter some lowland pasture 
  land in the vicinity of Monticello .

&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 6 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Sun   Mon   Tue Crest Time  Date

Middle Pearl River 
Monticello     22  21.7 Sat 07 PM  21.2  20.1  19.1    Falling          


&&


LAT...LON 3140 9008 3155 9017 3168 9019 3169 9005
      3155 9002 3140 8992             



$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Jackson, MS wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Feb 26, 5:26 AM CST, 4 hours 18 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 26, 5:26 AM CST, 4 hours 18 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
526 AM CST Mon Feb 26 2018

.UPDATE...
Updated for 12Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF discussion:
A mix of VFR/MVFR/IFR conditions prevail across TAF sites this
morning, as the storm system continues to move off to the east of
the area. Ceilings will improve from west to east through the
morning into the afternoon hours, with most TAF sites becoming VFR
by early/mid afternoon. VFR conditions will continue at most sites
through the remainder of the period with the exception of HBG,
where stratus and fog may return early on Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.Today and Tonight...The rain is ending from west to east across
the area, as surface high pressure ridging begins to build in.
Expect some light rain in the east early this morning, but dry
conditions will prevail across the entire area by mid morning.
Surface high pressure ridging will continue to build across the
area through the day from a high centered over the Ohio Valley.
Cloudy skies will give way to partly cloudy conditions by this
afternoon, with high temperatures ranging from the mid 60s in the
north, to low 70s in the south. Little will change overnight with
surface high pressure ridging continuing and overnight lows
falling into the low 40s in the north, to low 50s in the
south./15/

Tuesday through Sunday...

After a rather wet weekend and a brief lull in the rain, another
round or two of rain will occur through the week. Tuesday will begin
dry as the front that moved through this morning remains off the
Gulf Coast. However, this front will lift north through the day. As
this occurs, showers and some thunderstorms will develop along this
front, mainly north of the forecast area. There are a few small
placement differences between the GFS and ECMWF as to where higher
QPF totals will reside within my forecast area. However, it does
look like locations in the Delta will see their first round of rain
during the late afternoon Tuesday into Tuesday night.

By Wednesday morning, the warm front will be firmly in place just
north of my forecast area. This will put the ArkLaMiss region into
the warm sector. Dewpoints will be in the lower to mid 60s thanks to
southerly return flow. 578-582dm mid level heights will be present
across the area, which will result in above normal highs for
Wednesday. Readings in the lower to perhaps mid 80s will occur in
the southern sections of the forecast area. The coolest locations
will be in the north, generally along and north of the Highway 82
corridor, where clouds and rain may hamper heating some. These
higher heights should also help keep convection at bay through the
day across much of the southern sections of the ArkLaMiss.

Our next weather system should come through at some point Wednesday
night. A low pressure system will develop across the Kansas/Oklahoma
border during the day on Wednesday. It will then eject to the
east/northeast Wednesday evening and overnight into the Ohio Valley
region. As this occurs, a mid-level trough will dig south into the
Central Plains and Mid-Mississippi River Valley region and
eventually turn into a closed low. As this occurs, a front will push
toward our region Wednesday night and bring showers and some
thunderstorms with it. Some storms could be strong to severe with
the best potential of this being in the Delta region. It is in this
region where the best combination of shear, instability and forcing
should occur. Steep lapse rates around 6-7C/km will be present along
with good low level and deep layer shear(thanks to a 90-110kt mid
level jet). This should promote potential for hail and damaging
winds but also tornadoes. A slight risk has been introduced into the
day 3 picture from SPC and this seems reasonable. Rain and storms
will continue across the area into Thursday afternoon before finally
exiting during the late afternoon or early evening.

In addition to the severe potential, there is more potential for
heavy rain and thus flash flooding. With multiple rounds of rain
expected across the southeast AR and MS Delta region, and locations
further north into the northern MS, this area cannot handle much
more rain at all. WPC has a slight risk of flash flooding across
portions of my Delta for Tuesday into Wednesday and even a moderate
risk just north of my area for Wednesday into Thursday. Will make
this threat a little more pronounced in both the HWO and graphics
with likely an elevated risk in the northwest, where it won't take
much of any rain to bring issues.

After the mid-week system, a brief period of dry weather will take
hold as cool high pressure will move in from the north and upper
level ridging will occur as well. This will actually keep
temperatures a little closer to seasonal averages for early March.
/28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       70  49  73  61 /   9   2   9  57
Meridian      69  49  72  60 /  25   1   4  43
Vicksburg     68  49  73  63 /   2   5  28  70
Hattiesburg   72  53  75  63 /  33   6   9  29
Natchez       69  52  74  65 /   3   5  48  47
Greenville    66  42  67  59 /   0   1  20  94
Greenwood     67  46  72  59 /   4   0   7  94

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

15

Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 26, 4:41 AM CST, 5 hours 3 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
441 AM CST Mon Feb 26 2018

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
271045-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Bolivar-
Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-
Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-
Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-
Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah-
Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-
Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
441 AM CST Mon Feb 26 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central
Mississippi, and south central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Severe weather will be possible across portions of the Delta
region into central Mississippi and northeast Louisiana mid-week.
The main concerns will be from hail and damaging winds.

In addition to the potential for severe weather, heavy rain and
flash flooding will again be a concern. Multiple rounds of rain
will affect the region, especially across southeast Arkansas,
northeast Louisiana and northwest Mississippi from Tuesday
afternoon through Thursday morning. Given recent rainfall and how
saturated the soils are, this will lead to flash and river
flooding concerns. Please continue to monitor future outlooks for
more details on both the potential severe weather and flooding
event.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image1.png)
(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image2.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region Wednesday
through Wednesday night.

28

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

No short term hazards expected.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

The office that day

Everything else NWS Jackson, MS issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Feb 25, 10:44 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	JAN	Covington, Forrest, Jones, Lamar	61 min
Feb 26, 9:39 AM CST	River Flood Warning	JAN	Clay	4 days
Feb 26, 9:39 AM CST	River Flood Warning	JAN	Noxubee	3 days
Feb 26, 9:44 AM CST	River Flood Warning	JAN	Leake	67 hr
Feb 26, 9:46 AM CST	River Flood Warning	JAN	Clarke	44 hr
Feb 26, 2:44 PM CST	Flood Watch	JAN	Bolivar, Grenada, Leflore, Sunflower, Washington	69 hr

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in Mississippi, 2018 Every river flood warning in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.