Alert archive / Mississippi / River Flood Warnings in 2018

River Flood Warning 2, NWS Jackson, MS

February 6, 2018Madison County, Yazoo County, Mississippi

NWS Jackson, MS issued this river flood warning at Feb 6, 2018, 10:25 AM CST for Madison County, Yazoo County, Mississippi. It took effect at Feb 7, 2018, 1:15 PM CST. It was in force for 3 days.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Feb 6, 2018, 10:25 AM CST (16:25 UTC)
In effect from
Feb 7, 2018, 1:15 PM CST
Expired
Feb 10, 2018, 3:00 PM CST
In force
3 days
Issued by
NWS Jackson, MS
Area
Storm-based polygon
Flood severity
Minor

Counties Madison County, MS, Yazoo County, MS

The radar

The Jackson/Brandon,MS radar (KDGX), 53 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 16:28 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Big Black River near Bentonia (BTAM6). The gauge peaked at 24.00 ft at Feb 11, 2018, 3:00 PM CST.

actionminormoderate15202502/0602/0702/0802/0902/1002/11
Action stage
21 ft
Minor stage
22 ft
Moderate stage
25 ft
Major stage
29 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 07289730, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted.

238 
WGUS44 KJAN 061625
FLWJAN
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS
1025 AM CST Tue Feb 6 2018


...The National Weather Service in Jackson has issued a Flood Warning
for the following rivers in Mississippi... 

  Big Black River At West affecting Attala and Holmes Counties
  Big Black River Near Bentonia affecting Madison and Yazoo Counties
  Big Black River Near Bovina affecting Hinds and Warren Counties



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive or walk through areas where water covers roadway! The 
water may be deeper than it appears. Remember...Turn around, don't 
drown!

Forecasts are based on rainfall that has occurred and that which is 
forecast to occur. Routine 24 hours of forecast rainfall is used for 
most sites. Routine 48 hours of forecast rainfall is used on Tibbee 
Creek...Luxapallila Creek...Noxubee River...and the Tombigbee River.

Additional information is available at:  
http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=jan

The next regularly scheduled update is expected tonight between 8 and
10 PM.

&&

MSC007-051-072225-
/O.NEW.KJAN.FL.W.0001.180207T1920Z-180210T0430Z/
/WSTM6.1.ER.180207T1920Z.180208T1200Z.180209T1630Z.NO/
1025 AM CST Tue Feb 6 2018

The National Weather Service in Jackson has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  The Big Black River At West
  from Wednesday afternoon to Friday evening.
* At  9:45 AM Tuesday the stage was 11.3 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage early tomorrow 
  afternoon and will continue to rise to near 17.0 feet  Thursday 
  morning. The river will fall below flood stage late Friday morning.
* Impact...At 17.0 feet...Several thousand acres of agricultural and 
  lowland become inundated.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet...Lowlands and agricultural land near the 
  river begin to flood.

&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 6 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Wed   Thu   Fri Crest Time  Date

Upper Big Black River 
West           15  11.3 Tue 10 AM  12.6  17.0  15.3  17.0 06 AM 02/08


&&


LAT...LON 3291 9006 3314 8990 3330 8981 3322 8963
      3313 8969 3285 8987             



$$

MSC089-163-072225-
/O.NEW.KJAN.FL.W.0002.180208T0234Z-180210T2100Z/
/BTAM6.1.ER.180208T0234Z.180208T1800Z.180210T0900Z.NO/
1025 AM CST Tue Feb 6 2018

The National Weather Service in Jackson has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  The Big Black River Near Bentonia
  from Wednesday evening to Saturday afternoon.
* At  9:15 AM Tuesday the stage was 17.2 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 22.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage tomorrow evening 
  and will continue to rise to near 24.0 feet  early Thursday 
  afternoon. The river will fall below flood stage Saturday morning.
* Impact...At 23.5 feet...Agricultural land near the river begins to 
  flood.
* Impact...At 22.0 feet...Low lying woodland areas along the river 
  begins to flood.
* Impact...At 21.0 feet...Minor low land flooding occurs along the 
  river.

&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 6 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Wed   Thu   Fri Crest Time  Date

Lower Big Black River 
Bentonia       22  17.2 Tue 09 AM  18.1  23.8  23.1  24.0 12 PM 02/08


&&


LAT...LON 3256 9064 3281 9012 3291 9006 3285 8987
      3272 8996 3245 9052             



$$

MSC049-149-072224-
/O.NEW.KJAN.FL.W.0003.180209T0900Z-000000T0000Z/
/BOVM6.1.ER.180209T0900Z.180210T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1025 AM CST Tue Feb 6 2018

The National Weather Service in Jackson has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  The Big Black River Near Bovina
* from late Thursday night until further notice.
* At  9:15 AM Tuesday the stage was 18.1 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 28.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage Friday morning and
  will continue to rise to near 29.5 feet  early Saturday afternoon.
* Impact...At 28.0 feet...Low-lying agricultural land near the river 
  begins to flood.

&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 6 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Wed   Thu   Fri Crest Time  Date

Lower Big Black River 
Bovina         28  18.1 Tue 09 AM  23.0  26.1  28.3  29.5 12 PM 02/10


&&


LAT...LON 3217 9093 3224 9078 3256 9064 3245 9052
      3218 9065 3204 9102             



$$
4 follow-up statements
943 
WGUS84 KJAN 070115
FLSJAN
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS
715 PM CST Tue Feb 6 2018


...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Mississippi...

  Big Black River At West affecting Attala and Holmes Counties 
  Big Black River Near Bentonia affecting Madison and Yazoo Counties 
  Big Black River Near Bovina affecting Hinds and Warren Counties 


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive or walk through areas where water covers roadway! The 
water may be deeper than it appears. Remember...Turn around, don't 
drown!

Forecasts are based on rainfall that has occurred and that which is 
forecast to occur. Routine 24 hours of forecast rainfall is used for 
most sites. Routine 48 hours of forecast rainfall is used on Tibbee 
Creek...Luxapallila Creek...Noxubee River...and the Tombigbee River.

The next regularly scheduled update is expected between 8 and 10 AM.

&&

MSC007-051-080715-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0001.180207T2110Z-180210T1500Z/
/WSTM6.1.ER.180207T2110Z.180208T1200Z.180210T0300Z.NO/
715 PM CST Tue Feb 6 2018

...Flood Warning extended until Saturday morning...

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Big Black River At West
* from Wednesday afternoon to Saturday morning.
* At 6:45 PM Tuesday the stage was 10.8 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage tomorrow afternoon
  and will continue to rise to near 17.0 feet Thursday morning.
* Impact...At 17.0 feet...Several thousand acres of agricultural and 
  lowland become inundated.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet...Lowlands and agricultural land near the 
  river begin to flood.

&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 6 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Wed   Thu   Fri Crest Time  Date

Upper Big Black River 
West           15  10.8 Tue 07 PM  12.0  17.0  15.6  17.0 06 AM 02/08


&&


LAT...LON 3291 9006 3314 8990 3330 8981 3322 8963
      3313 8969 3285 8987             



$$

MSC089-163-080714-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0002.180208T0022Z-180210T1800Z/
/BTAM6.1.ER.180208T0022Z.180208T1200Z.180210T0600Z.NO/
715 PM CST Tue Feb 6 2018


The Flood Warning continues for
  The Big Black River Near Bentonia
* from Wednesday evening to Saturday afternoon.
* At 6:15 PM Tuesday the stage was 17.3 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 22.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage tomorrow evening 
  and will continue to rise to near 24.0 feet Thursday morning.
* Impact...At 23.5 feet...Agricultural land near the river begins to 
  flood.
* Impact...At 22.0 feet...Low lying woodland areas along the river 
  begins to flood.
* Impact...At 21.0 feet...Minor low land flooding occurs along the 
  river.

&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 6 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Wed   Thu   Fri Crest Time  Date

Lower Big Black River 
Bentonia       22  17.3 Tue 06 PM  17.8  24.0  23.0  24.0 06 AM 02/08


&&


LAT...LON 3256 9064 3281 9012 3291 9006 3285 8987
      3272 8996 3245 9052             



$$

MSC049-149-080714-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0003.180209T1930Z-000000T0000Z/
/BOVM6.1.ER.180209T1930Z.180210T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
715 PM CST Tue Feb 6 2018


The Flood Warning continues for
  The Big Black River Near Bovina
* from Friday afternoon until further notice.
* At 6:15 PM Tuesday the stage was 19.2 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 28.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage early Friday 
  afternoon and will continue to rise to near 29.5 feet Saturday 
  morning.
* Impact...At 28.0 feet...Low-lying agricultural land near the river 
  begins to flood.

&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 6 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Wed   Thu   Fri Crest Time  Date

Lower Big Black River 
Bovina         28  19.2 Tue 06 PM  21.0  23.1  27.0  29.5 06 AM 02/10


&&


LAT...LON 3217 9093 3224 9078 3256 9064 3245 9052
      3218 9065 3204 9102             



$$
254 
WGUS84 KJAN 071527
FLSJAN
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS
927 AM CST Wed Feb 7 2018




...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Mississippi...

  Big Black River At West affecting Attala and Holmes Counties 
  Big Black River Near Bentonia affecting Madison and Yazoo Counties 
  Big Black River Near Bovina affecting Hinds and Warren Counties 


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive or walk through areas where water covers roadway! The 
water may be deeper than it appears. Remember...Turn around, don't 
drown!

Forecasts are based on rainfall that has occurred and that which is 
forecast to occur. Routine 24 hours of forecast rainfall is used for 
most sites. Routine 48 hours of forecast rainfall is used on Tibbee 
Creek...Luxapallila Creek...Noxubee River...and the Tombigbee River.

Additional information is available at:  
http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=jan

The next regularly scheduled update is expected tonight between 8 and
10 PM.

&&

MSC007-051-082127-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0001.180207T1818Z-180212T2221Z/
/WSTM6.1.ER.180207T1818Z.180208T0600Z.180212T1021Z.NO/
927 AM CST Wed Feb 7 2018

...Flood Warning extended until Monday afternoon...

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Big Black River At West
* until Monday afternoon.
* At  8:45 AM Wednesday the stage was 14.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage this afternoon and
  will continue to rise to near 17.5 feet  tomorrow morning. The 
  river will fall below flood stage Monday morning.
* Impact...At 17.0 feet...Several thousand acres of agricultural and 
  lowland become inundated.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet...Lowlands and agricultural land near the 
  river begin to flood.

&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 6 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Thu   Fri   Sat Crest Time  Date

Upper Big Black River 
West           15  14.0 Wed 09 AM  17.5  16.1  17.3  17.5 06 AM 02/08


&&


LAT...LON 3291 9006 3314 8990 3330 8981 3322 8963
      3313 8969 3285 8987             



$$

MSC089-163-082127-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0002.180207T1915Z-180211T0600Z/
/BTAM6.1.ER.180207T1915Z.180208T0600Z.180210T1800Z.NO/
927 AM CST Wed Feb 7 2018

...Flood Warning extended until late Saturday night...

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Big Black River Near Bentonia
* from this afternoon to late Saturday night.
* At  9:15 AM Wednesday the stage was 20.2 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 22.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage this afternoon and
  will continue to rise to near 24.0 feet  just after midnight 
  tonight. The river will fall below flood stage early Saturday 
  afternoon.
* Impact...At 23.5 feet...Agricultural land near the river begins to 
  flood.
* Impact...At 22.0 feet...Low lying woodland areas along the river 
  begins to flood.
* Impact...At 21.0 feet...Minor low land flooding occurs along the 
  river.


&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 6 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Thu   Fri   Sat Crest Time  Date

Lower Big Black River 
Bentonia       22  20.2 Wed 09 AM  23.6  22.2  22.2  24.0 12 AM 02/08


&&


LAT...LON 3256 9064 3281 9012 3291 9006 3285 8987
      3272 8996 3245 9052             



$$

MSC049-149-082127-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0003.180209T2200Z-180212T1400Z/
/BOVM6.1.ER.180209T2200Z.180210T1200Z.180212T0200Z.NO/
927 AM CST Wed Feb 7 2018


The Flood Warning continues for
  The Big Black River Near Bovina
* from Friday afternoon to Monday morning.
* At  9:15 AM Wednesday the stage was 24.3 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 28.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage Friday afternoon 
  and will continue to rise to near 29.0 feet  Saturday morning. The 
  river will fall below flood stage Sunday evening.
* Impact...At 28.0 feet...Low-lying agricultural land near the river 
  begins to flood.

&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 6 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Thu   Fri   Sat Crest Time  Date

Lower Big Black River 
Bovina         28  24.3 Wed 09 AM  26.3  26.9  29.0  29.0 06 AM 02/10


&&


LAT...LON 3217 9093 3224 9078 3256 9064 3245 9052
      3218 9065 3204 9102             



$$
103 
WGUS84 KJAN 080129
FLSJAN
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS
729 PM CST Wed Feb 7 2018


...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Mississippi...

  Big Black River At West affecting Attala and Holmes Counties 
  Big Black River Near Bentonia affecting Madison and Yazoo Counties 
  Big Black River Near Bovina affecting Hinds and Warren Counties 


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive or walk through areas where water covers roadway! The 
water may be deeper than it appears. Remember...Turn around, don't 
drown!

Forecasts are based on rainfall that has occurred and that which is 
forecast to occur. Routine 24 hours of forecast rainfall is used for 
most sites. 

The next regularly scheduled update is expected between 8 and 10 AM.

&&

MSC007-051-090729-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-180213T0105Z/
/WSTM6.1.ER.180207T2337Z.180211T0000Z.180212T1305Z.NO/
729 PM CST Wed Feb 7 2018

...Flood Warning extended until Monday evening...

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Big Black River At West
* until Monday evening.
* At  6:45 PM Wednesday the stage was 15.1 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 17.5 feet  
  Saturday evening. 
* Impact...At 17.0 feet...Several thousand acres of agricultural and 
  lowland become inundated.


&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 6 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Thu   Fri   Sat Crest Time  Date

Upper Big Black River 
West           15  15.1 Wed 07 PM  15.9  15.8  17.3  17.5 06 PM 02/10


&&


LAT...LON 3291 9006 3314 8990 3330 8981 3322 8963
      3313 8969 3285 8987             



$$

MSC089-163-090729-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-180209T1200Z/
/BTAM6.1.ER.180208T1200Z.180208T1200Z.180209T0000Z.NO/
729 PM CST Wed Feb 7 2018


The Flood Warning continues for
  The Big Black River Near Bentonia
* until Friday morning.
* At  7:15 PM Wednesday the stage was 21.6 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 22.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 22.1 feet by 
  Thursday morning. 
* Impact...At 22.0 feet...Low lying woodland areas along the river 
  begins to flood.


&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 6 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Thu   Fri   Sat Crest Time  Date

Lower Big Black River 
Bentonia       22  21.6 Wed 07 PM  22.1  21.4  20.1  22.0 06 AM 02/08


&&


LAT...LON 3256 9064 3281 9012 3291 9006 3285 8987
      3272 8996 3245 9052             



$$

MSC049-149-090728-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0003.180208T0526Z-180211T0600Z/
/BOVM6.1.ER.180208T0526Z.180208T1800Z.180210T1800Z.NO/
729 PM CST Wed Feb 7 2018


The Flood Warning continues for
  The Big Black River Near Bovina
* from this evening to late Saturday night.
* At  7:15 PM Wednesday the stage was 27.2 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 28.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage tonight and will 
  continue to rise to near 29.0 feet tomorrow evening.
* Impact...At 28.0 feet...Low-lying agricultural land near the river 
  begins to flood.

&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 6 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Thu   Fri   Sat Crest Time  Date

Lower Big Black River 
Bovina         28  27.2 Wed 07 PM  28.8  28.9  28.2  29.0 06 PM 02/08


&&


LAT...LON 3217 9093 3224 9078 3256 9064 3245 9052
      3218 9065 3204 9102             



$$
334 
WGUS84 KJAN 081610
FLSJAN
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS
1010 AM CST Thu Feb 8 2018


...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers 
in Mississippi...
 
  Big Black River Near Bentonia affecting Madison and Yazoo Counties


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive or walk through areas where water covers roadway! The 
water may be deeper than it appears. Remember...Turn around, don't 
drown!

Forecasts are based on rainfall that has occurred and that which is 
forecast to occur. Routine 24 hours of forecast rainfall is used for 
most sites. 

Additional information is available at:  
http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=jan

The next regularly scheduled update is expected tonight between 8 and
10 PM.

&&

MSC089-163-081640-
/O.CAN.KJAN.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-180209T1200Z/
/BTAM6.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1010 AM CST Thu Feb 8 2018

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Big Black River Near Bentonia.
* At  9:15 AM Thursday the stage was 21.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 22.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river has remained below flood stage and should begin
  a slow fall. Additional rainfall this weekend could produce a rise
  above flood stage.

&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 6 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Fri   Sat   Sun Crest Time  Date

Lower Big Black River 
Bentonia       22  21.6 Thu 09 AM  21.2  20.2  18.7 crested below flow stage        


&&


LAT...LON 3256 9064 3281 9012 3291 9006 3285 8987
      3272 8996 3245 9052             



$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Jackson, MS wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Feb 6, 10:03 AM CST, 22 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 6, 10:03 AM CST, 22 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1003 AM CST Tue Feb 6 2018

.UPDATE...
Updated for morning discussion.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
No major changes made to the going forecast for today. Updated
rain chances and short-term weather elements through the afternoon
based on latest trends in obs and hi-res guidance. Scattered
showers, with the occasional thunderstorm will be possible around
the forecast area through the rest of today. Steadier light to
moderate rain will continue through the Delta region through early
this afternoon, with more of a chance for brief but heavier
showers to the south and east. Rain chances and intensity generally
expected by later tonight as a surface low moves northeast across
the forecast area. /NF/

Prior discussion below:

Today and Tonight...Increasing clouds and rain chances will be
the story for the short-term portion of the forecast. A shortwave
aloft will swing out of the nation's mid-section and towards the
Lower Mississippi River Valley over the next 24 hours. This will
cause a surface low to develop later tonight, and lift northeast
across the forecast area, while eventually dragging a cold front
through the region in the process.

For today, and ahead of the above scenario tonight, increasing
isentropic lift over the region and south of a boundary meandering
about near the Highway 82 corridor, will result in mainly light
scattered shower activity over the CWA during the morning, and at
least early afternoon.  Activity is expected to increase in both
coverage and intensity during the evening and overnight hours as low
level moisture increases over the area, in addition to increased
flow aloft, and the approaching trough.

Some thunderstorm activity will also become possible during the late
afternoon and overnight hours as well, especially as the deepening
surface low and cold front itself begin their trek through the CWA
late tonight into the pre-dawn hours of Wednesday morning.  The
concern for severe storms through this timeframe is currently quite
low.  Overall forcing is rather weak ahead of the front, but there
remains some modest deep-layer wind shear and some elevated
instability.  While an elevated storm of two could become intense
enough to produce some hail, confidence in this is again is quite
low.  Thus, I'll not introduce any mention of severe storms into the
"today/tonight" period of the HWO on this morning's issuance.

I will maintain the ongoing "Limited" potential for heavy rain over
a large portion of the forecast area beginning late tonight and
continuing into Wednesday morning.  Along with the approaching
trough and the surface front over the area, increased deep-layer
moisture as precipitable H2O values climb to between 1.75-1.50
inches, and increasing and favorable jet dynamics just north of the
region, the potential for heavy rainfall looks possible across
mainly central and northern portions of the CWA.  A widespread 1-3
inches of rain will be possible over these areas beginning tonight.
These areas also recently received a widespread 1-2 inches of rain
this past Saturday night into Sunday morning.  Thus, with soils
still wet from that rain, coupled with an additional 1-3 inches over
the next 24 hours, some localized flash flooding cannot be ruled out
during this time.

Rain will likely linger for a few hours in the wake of the cold
front's passage.  However, cooler drier air will begin advecting
into the region.  Due to the boundary meandering across my north
today, highs will range from the upper 40s over the Delta, to the
lower 70s across Southeast Mississippi.  The same wide-array of
temperatures goes for lows on Wednesday morning.  Due to the cold
front moving through the region, lows will range from the 40s in the
Delta, to the lower 60s across Southeast Mississippi. /19/

Wednesday through early next week...
An active early to mid February will continue with numerous
chances of rain and storms over the next week. This will help
improve the drought situation through the region and improve
seasonal rainfall deficits. Latest WPC 7 Day QPF forecast suggests
that 5+ inches of rain could fall across the region.

On Wednesday morning, heavy rain and storms will be ongoing as a
front associated with an upper disturbance continues to advance
through the region. The best chance for strong to severe storms
will remain in the southern portions of the ArkLaMiss where the
combination of shear and instability will be best ahead of the
front. Bulk shear values will approach the 50-55 kt range with
SBCAPE values increasing to 500-600 j/kg. The main threat with any
strong to severe storms will be damaging wind gusts; however, a
tornado can't be ruled out. The HWO will be slightly modified
spatially to pull the marginal risk of severe storms slightly
north.

Flash flooding will also remain a threat on Wednesday as
convective storms along and ahead of the front become efficient
rain producers resulting in significant rain rates. Expect storm
totals in the range of 1-3 inches areawide with localized heavier
amounts and the greatest totals occuring along and north of a line
from Natchez to Columbus. Current RFC flash flood guidance for
the area ranges from 2.3"-2.8" in 3 hrs. The greatest threat of
flash flooding will exist in the flood prone areas of the region.
Rainfall will begin to taper off by Wednesday evening as the
front pushes south of the region and drier air begins to filter
in behind it. High temperatures will range quite a bit on
Wednesday; only reaching the low 40's in the north and mid to
upper 60s in the south. Drier weather will prevail on Thursday
with seasonable temperatures.

Lowering heights over the western CONUS will result in SW flow
for the SE US. Moisture will begin to increase on Friday as the
midweek front begins to advance back northward from the Gulf of
Mexico as a warm front, resulting in showers by Friday afternoon.
PWats values will have reached 1.3" to 1.5" areawide by Saturday.
Several weak disturbances embedded in the upper SW flow will
result in rain and storm chances through the weekend and into
early next week. Accurate timing of each specific disturbance is
difficult at this point so kept precip forecast broad through the
period. The stagnant marine airmass over the region will result
in above normal temps through the weekend and into early next
week. Models begin to diverge as we get into mid week next week
but they do hint at another, more potent, storm system
approaching the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF discussion:
MVFR flight categories will prevail over the next 24 hours, with
some periods of ceilings falling to IFR categories possible. As a
storm system moves into the region overnight, chances for showers
and thunderstorms will also increase through the course of today,
with the best chances for showers and storms expected late tonight
into Wednesday morning.  Of course, convection will also bring
reduced visibilities to sites where observed on station. Winds will
become southerly during the morning, and increase to around 10 knots
this afternoon. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       68  56  52  34 /  65 100  91  18
Meridian      68  59  60  34 /  43  89  88  25
Vicksburg     63  49  49  32 /  41 100  90  16
Hattiesburg   69  61  65  39 /  63  70  89  37
Natchez       69  55  51  34 /  71 100  90  25
Greenville    50  40  44  29 /  58 100  67   4
Greenwood     57  46  47  29 /  61 100  82   6

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

JPM3/NF/19
Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 6, 4:45 AM CST, 5 hours 40 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
445 AM CST Tue Feb 6 2018

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>025-MSZ018-019-025>053-062100-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Bolivar-Sunflower-Leflore-
Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-
Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-Noxubee-Issaquena-
Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-Warren-Hinds-Rankin-
Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-
445 AM CST Tue Feb 6 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central
Mississippi, and southwest Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Tonight

Heavy rainfall is expected to begin tonight across the outlook
area. Rainfall accumulations on the order of 1 to 3 inches are
expected, with locally higher amounts possible. Flash flooding and
minor river flooding will be possible as a result of this
rainfall.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

Heavy rainfall, possibly resulting in flash flooding, is expected
across extreme southeast Arkansas, portions of northeast
Louisiana, portions of central and north Mississippi through
early Wednesday afternoon.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image2.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and emergency
management personnel in support of severe weather operations, may
be needed for portions of the region late tonight into Wednesday.

LAZ026-MSZ054>066-072>074-062100-
Concordia-Copiah-Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-
Franklin MS-Lincoln-Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-
Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
445 AM CST Tue Feb 6 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, central Mississippi, east central Mississippi, and
south central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible over portions of west
central Mississippi, portions of east central Mississippi,
portions of northeast Louisiana, and all of south central
Mississippi Wednesday morning. The main concern with these storms
will be damaging wind gusts.  However, a tornado cannot be ruled
out.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image1.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region Wednesday.

19

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*FLOODING*
Extreme...Confident in significant flooding.
Significant...Significant flooding possible.
Elevated...Confident in flooding.
Limited...Flooding possible.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR FLOODING ISSUES...

Current Watches and Warnings...
   www.weather.gov/jan/safe_HeavyRain

Observed Precipitation Images...
   www.weather.gov/jan/precipmaps

River Forecast Center...
   www.weather.gov/lmrfc/
Significant River Flood Outlook...
   www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html
Day 1 through 3 Excessive Rainfall...
   www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml
Excessive Rainfall Discussion...
   www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpferd.html
Day 1 through 7 QPF...
   www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml
QPF Discussion...
   www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfpfd.html

The office that day

Everything else NWS Jackson, MS issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 6, 10:25 AM CSTRiver Flood WarningJANAttala, Holmes12 days
Feb 6, 10:25 AM CSTRiver Flood WarningJANHinds, Warren45 days
Feb 6, 4:31 PM CSTFlash Flood WatchJANAttala, Bolivar, Carroll, Choctaw, Clay, Grenada and 24 more16 hr

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in Mississippi, 2018Every river flood warning in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.