River Flood Warning 17, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
543 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

...FLOODING CONTINUING IN THE DELTA THROUGH EARLY TODAY...

.UPDATE...
Updated for 12Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF discussion:
BKN/OVC MVFR/IFR ceilings encompass the majority of the area this
morning. A band of SHRA/TSRA in association with a cold front
extends from NE Louisiana across SE Arkansas and NW Mississippi.
These showers will continue through the morning hours, then begin
to retreat back to the west later today. Brief IFR/MVFR visibility
reductions are possible in some of the +RA. Ceilings will improve
to VFR across most of the area by this afternoon. However, low
ceilings and some areas of fog will redevelop overnight tonight,
with reductions to IFR/LIFR possible especially across south MS.
/DL/

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today and tonight: The surface front is now beginning to stall
roughly along an Alexandria LA to Vicksburg to Tupelo line.
Training convection along and behind this front has been ongoing
overnight across much of the Delta and has resulted in a
considerable amount of flooding from Morehouse Parish through our
SE Arkansas counties and into Washington County. More recently,
rain rates have been on a downward trend as mid/upper subsidence
increases with the departure of a mid level shortwave.
Nevertheless, the ground is very saturated across much of the
Delta and lingering heavier showers will help sustain ongoing
flooding or perhaps result in some additional flooding over the
next several hours. As a result, we'll maintain the flash flood
watch over generally the same area through noon.

Thereafter, the heavy rain threat will take a brief intermission
as the front retreats northwestward into Arkansas through
tonight. For all of our talk about heavy rain and flooding
potential over the northwest half of the area, today will be
mostly dry across the remainder of the region, including the
Jackson metro, Meridian, and the Pine Belt. What it will
be...still...is unseasonably warm. If my forecast high temps for
today verify, 5 out of 6 official climate sites would set or tie
records. Tonight, isolated to scattered showers will remain
relegated to NW/W portions of the forecast area closer to the
front, with warm and dry conditions likely across much of central
and east MS. /DL/

Friday through Wednesday:

The highly anomalous ridge (3+ SD) over the western Atlantic and
southeast CONUS will continue to transport record warm and moist
air (precipitable water 250 to 300% of normal) into the ArkLaMiss
region as we finish the work week and move into the weekend. The
primary concerns will be for the possibility of any additional
heavy rainfall over the Delta region due to the current flooding
Friday through the weekend, and for severe weather ~Saturday
night.

Recent guidance has been in pretty good agreement for a disturbance
to move from the Gulf of Mexico around the periphery of the
anticyclone and combine with daytime heating Friday to bring
shower/thunderstorm activity that could bring localized heavy
rainfall to the ArkLaMiss. It will not take much rain to cause
problems, especially in the Delta, and will indicate a continuing
flash flood threat in the HWO for mainly the northwest half of the
forecast area. A stronger shortwave trough should manage to
dampen the ridge this weekend (H500 12hr ~40m) and bring a
convective system through the forecast area late Saturday/Saturday
night. Ingredients for severe weather will exist per SPC and will
continue to reflect this in the HWO. Strong low-mid level shear
will favor QLCS/supercell development, and 0-3km shear vectors
will be favorable for and mesovortices and increasing damaging
wind/tornado threat, mainly north of the I-20 corridor.

Looking beyond the weekend, the active weather pattern will likely
continue with the threat for additional rounds of convective
precipitation over the region as the southeast CONUS ridge
rebuilds while polar air from the north reinforces the frontal
boundary and enhances moisture convergence. The potential for
additional heavy rainfall and severe weather will need to be
monitored. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       86  65  81  64 /  16   8  55  47
Meridian      84  62  81  64 /   3   5  29  34
Vicksburg     81  66  81  64 /  60  20  57  48
Hattiesburg   84  63  81  65 /  10  11  44  31
Natchez       83  66  80  66 /  28  18  57  39
Greenville    67  61  76  63 /  66  38  52  53
Greenwood     76  65  79  64 /  82  25  41  53

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Flash Flood Watch until noon CST today for MSZ018-019-025-034-
     035-040-041.

LA...Flash Flood Watch until noon CST today for LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>025.

AR...Flash Flood Watch until noon CST today for ARZ074-075.

&&

DL/EC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
654 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023-MSZ018-019-025-034-035-040-041-
231300-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Bolivar-Sunflower-Leflore-Washington-
Humphreys-Issaquena-Sharkey-
654 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central
Mississippi, northwest Mississippi, and west central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Today

Heavy rain resulting in continued flash flooding will continue
through this morning. Total rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches are
expected, with locally higher amounts possible.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

An elevated threat for flash flooding exists for the Delta region
from Friday into the weekend due to periods of heavy rainfall
falling on soaked ground. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible
for much of the rest of the outlook area where a limited threat
for flash flooding exists, primarily northwest of a line from Bude
to Morton to Macon in central Mississippi.

A slight risk for severe thunderstorms capable of producing
damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes exists generally along
and north of the Interstate 20 corridor for mainly Saturday night
into early Sunday morning. A marginal risk for a few severe storms
capable of producing damaging wind gusts exists generally south of
Interstate 20 for the same time.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image2.png)
(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image3.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region Saturday
night.

LAZ024-026-MSZ028>033-037>039-043>046-048>066-072>074-231300-
Catahoula-Concordia-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-Choctaw-
Oktibbeha-Attala-Winston-Noxubee-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-
Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah-Simpson-
Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-Lawrence-
Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
654 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, central Mississippi, east central Mississippi, north
central Mississippi, northeast Mississippi, and south central
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

An elevated threat for flash flooding exists for the Delta region
from Friday into the weekend due to periods of heavy rainfall
falling on soaked ground. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible
for much of the rest of the outlook area where a limited threat
for flash flooding exists, primarily northwest of a line from Bude
to Morton to Macon in central Mississippi.

A slight risk for severe thunderstorms capable of producing
damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes exists generally along
and north of the Interstate 20 corridor for mainly Saturday night
into early Sunday morning. A marginal risk for a few severe storms
capable of producing damaging wind gusts exists generally south of
Interstate 20 for the same time.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image2.png)
(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image3.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region Saturday
night.

LAZ025-MSZ026-027-036-042-047-231300-
Tensas-Grenada-Carroll-Holmes-Yazoo-Warren-
654 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central Mississippi, and
west central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today

Heavy rain resulting in continued flash flooding will remain
possible through this morning. Total rainfall amounts of 1 to 3
inches are expected, with locally higher amounts possible.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

An elevated threat for flash flooding exists for the Delta region
from Friday into the weekend due to periods of heavy rainfall
falling on soaked ground. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible
for much of the rest of the outlook area where a limited threat
for flash flooding exists, primarily northwest of a line from Bude
to Morton to Macon in central Mississippi.

A slight risk for severe thunderstorms capable of producing
damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes exists generally along
and north of the Interstate 20 corridor for mainly Saturday night
into early Sunday morning. A marginal risk for a few severe storms
capable of producing damaging wind gusts exists generally south of
Interstate 20 for the same time.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image2.png)
(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image3.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region Saturday
night.

21

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*FLOODING*
Extreme...Confident in significant flooding.
Significant...Significant flooding possible.
Elevated...Confident in flooding.
Limited...Flooding possible.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR FLOODING ISSUES...

Current Watches and Warnings...
   www.weather.gov/jan/safe_HeavyRain

Observed Precipitation Images...
   www.weather.gov/jan/precipmaps

River Forecast Center...
   www.weather.gov/lmrfc/
Significant River Flood Outlook...
   www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html
Day 1 through 3 Excessive Rainfall...
   www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml
Excessive Rainfall Discussion...
   www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpferd.html
Day 1 through 7 QPF...
   www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml
QPF Discussion...
   www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfpfd.html

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
605 AM CST THU FEB 22 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0403 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 NNE GREENVILLE        33.40N 91.04W
02/22/2018                   WASHINGTON         MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OF ROADWAYS THROUGHOUT
            THE COUNTY.

&&

AW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
719 AM CST THU FEB 22 2018

MSZ026-028-029-221345-
Grenada MS-Montgomery MS-Webster MS-
719 AM CST THU FEB 22 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN GRENADA...
NORTHWESTERN WEBSTER AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTGOMERY COUNTIES UNTIL 745
AM CST...

At 718 AM CST, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
over Gore Springs, or 9 miles east of Grenada, moving east at 40 mph.

Winds near 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Embry around 745 AM CST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3372 8951 3372 8929 3363 8929 3363 8973
      3381 8974 3384 8951
TIME...MOT...LOC 1318Z 268DEG 34KT 3373 8965

EC

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