Freeze Warning 4, NWS Jackson, MS

190 
WWUS74 KJAN 150200 AAA
NPWJAN

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
900 PM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR EAST CENTRAL 
MISSISSIPPI...

MSZ030>033-037>039-044>046-050>052-056>058-066-151000-
/O.CON.KJAN.FZ.W.0004.180315T0600Z-180315T1300Z/
Clay-Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Attala-Winston-Noxubee-Leake-
Neshoba-Kemper-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jones-
Including the cities of West Point, Columbus, Ackerman, Weir, 
Starkville, Kosciusko, Louisville, Macon, Brooksville, Carthage, 
Philadelphia, Pearl River, De Kalb, Scooba, Forest, Morton, 
Newton, Union, Decatur, Conehatta, Meridian, Taylorsville, 
Raleigh, Bay Springs, Heidelberg, Quitman, Stonewall, Shubuta, 
and Laurel
900 PM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT
THURSDAY...

* TEMPERATURE...Between 29 and 32 degrees late tonight into 
  early Thursday morning. 

* IMPACTS...Freezing temperatures will damage or kill crops and 
  other sensitive vegetation if left unprotected. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Freeze Warning means sub-freezing temperatures are imminent or
highly likely. These conditions will kill crops and other
sensitive vegetation.

&&

$$

23

760 
WWUS74 KJAN 150952
NPWJAN

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Jackson MS
452 AM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR EAST 
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...

MSZ030>033-037>039-044>046-050>052-056>058-066-151300-
/O.CON.KJAN.FZ.W.0004.000000T0000Z-180315T1300Z/
Clay-Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Attala-Winston-Noxubee-Leake-
Neshoba-Kemper-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jones-
Including the cities of West Point, Columbus, Ackerman, Weir, 
Starkville, Kosciusko, Louisville, Macon, Brooksville, Carthage, 
Philadelphia, Pearl River, De Kalb, Scooba, Forest, Morton, 
Newton, Union, Decatur, Conehatta, Meridian, Taylorsville, 
Raleigh, Bay Springs, Heidelberg, Quitman, Stonewall, Shubuta, 
and Laurel
452 AM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING...

* TEMPERATURE...Between 28 and 32 degrees until shortly after
  sunrise.
 
* IMPACTS...Freezing temperatures will damage or kill crops and 
  other sensitive vegetation if left unprotected. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Freeze Warning means sub-freezing temperatures are imminent or
highly likely. These conditions will kill crops and other
sensitive vegetation.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1225 PM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

.UPDATE...
Updated for 18Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion: VFR conditions will prevail through the
period./26/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through tonight: The cold eastern CONUS trough will
continue to influence ArkLaMiss weather in the short term. Surface
high pressure will become centered over the forecast area late
this afternoon and then move southeast of the area as we go
through tonight. Full sun today will allow high temperatures to
reach the upper 50s to lower 60s (still ~ 5 to 10 F below climatic
normal), but clear skies and light wind tonight will make for
optimal cooling mainly along/east of the I-55 corridor where some
threat for freeze/frost will exist again. Locations farther west
should observe increased wind/mixing on the back side of the
departing surface high, and so the risk for frost is considerably
lower there. Have maintained the freeze watch configuration for
late tonight over eastern MS, but have trimmed some of the limited
threat area west of I-55 to reflect what may be a tighter
temperature gradient. /EC/

Thursday: The surface ridge will begin to shift east of the area as
shortwave upper ridging builds in. With weak return flow and strong
insolation, temps will return to near or slightly above normal. It
will also be considerably milder Thursday night, with clouds
beginning to increase in the west overnight. The coolest conditions
will be in the eastern quadrant of the forecast area where the
least cloud cover is expected and the remaining vestiges of
influence from the departing high will provide lighter winds.

Friday and Saturday: A mid-level shortwave will strengthen as it
emerges into the central Plains, temporarily deepening a surface
cyclone over the same area. A band of showers and thunderstorms will
develop across the lower Mississippi Valley in association with this
feature, well ahead of a cold front situated back over the
ArkLaTex. Showers may emerge across the Delta by early Friday
morning, with greater rain (and storm) chances into the daytime
hours spreading across the remainder of the area. Guidance
consensus shows greatest QPF in the morning/early afternoon with
the initial "wave" of increased isentropic ascent, though airmass
recovery will still be ongoing during this period with lingering
stable air at the surface. Later in the afternoon and through the
night, activity looks to be more isolated to scattered with less
of a forcing mechanism for widespread development. SPC continues
to highlight the NW portion of the area for a slight risk for
severe storms. From a parameters perspective, sufficient
instability and deep layer shear are progged for severe
thunderstorms. However, from a bigger picture/synoptic
perspective, there are many question marks, including the lack of
strong forcing (nil to weak mid-level height falls, no surface
frontal passage), limited window of moisture recovery ahead of
the system, and a weakening surface low. Bottom line, severe
storms aren't out of the question, but at this point a widespread
threat seems quite unlikely.

Both the shortwave and surface low will weaken as they shift
further east Friday night into Saturday. As our region remains in
the warm sector with a surface front nudging southward into South
AR/North MS, isolated to scattered showers and storms will remain
possible through Saturday.

Sunday and Monday: A perhaps more impressive storm system will
take shape Sunday into Monday as a potent midlevel shortwave
tracks from the lower Plains toward the Midwest and a surface low
is forecast to deepen as it tracks ENEward into the mid
Mississippi Valley. This system looks more likely to bring a cold
front through the area early next week. And with the warm sector
having been in place for multiple days, moisture return will be
less of a concern ahead of this system. There is currently good
model agreement for more pronounced mid-level height falls/upper
forcing. Thus, chances for showers and thunderstorms will again
increase Sunday into Monday. SPC has yet to hop on board with
outlooking this system, but if model trends continue we will need
to highlight severe weather potential for this time frame in
later forecasts.

Tuesday: Behind the front, high pressure will build in across the
region with a temporary reprieve from rain chances. However, an
active weather pattern looks to continue beyond the 7 day period.
/DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       61  36  72  50 /   0   0   0  23
Meridian      60  33  72  46 /   0   0   0   5
Vicksburg     61  36  71  52 /   0   0   0  36
Hattiesburg   64  35  72  47 /   0   0   0   8
Natchez       63  39  72  53 /   0   0   0  40
Greenville    57  37  68  51 /   0   0   0  34
Greenwood     56  38  70  50 /   0   0   0  19

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Thursday morning for
     MSZ029>033-037>039-044>046-050>052-056>058-065-066-074.

LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
204 PM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>027-034>036-
040>042-047-060-151915-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Bolivar-
Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-
Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Warren-Adams-
204 PM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central
Mississippi, northwest Mississippi, southwest Mississippi, and
west central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Thursday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday night through Tuesday

Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts and
large hail are possible for portions of the ArkLaMiss Delta Friday
afternoon and evening.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image2.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region Friday
through Friday night.

MSZ031>033-037>039-044>046-050>052-057-058-066-151915-
Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Attala-Winston-Noxubee-Leake-Neshoba-
Kemper-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Jasper-Clarke-Jones-
204 PM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, east central Mississippi, northeast Mississippi, and
southeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Thursday

FREEZE AND FROST
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Late tonight through early Thursday morning

A frost and freeze are expected late tonight into early Thursday
morning as temperatures drop to around 32 degrees. Sensitive
vegetation may be damaged if not protected.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday night through Tuesday

Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts and
large hail are possible for portions of the ArkLaMiss Delta Friday
afternoon and evening.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image2.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region Friday
through Friday night.

MSZ028>030-043-048-049-053>056-059-061>065-072>074-151915-
Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Madison MS-Hinds-Rankin-Claiborne-Copiah-
Simpson-Smith-Jefferson-Franklin MS-Lincoln-Lawrence-
Jefferson Davis-Covington-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
204 PM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, north central Mississippi, northeast Mississippi,
and south central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Thursday

FREEZE AND FROST
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Late tonight through early Thursday morning

Patchy frost will be possible late tonight into early Thursday
morning as temperatures drop to the mid 30s.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday night through Tuesday

Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts and
large hail are possible for portions of the ArkLaMiss Delta Friday
afternoon and evening.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image2.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region Friday
through Friday night.

26

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*FREEZE AND FROST*
Extreme...Hard Freeze (less than or equal to 28 degrees) during
 the growing season with catastrophic damage to unprotected
 tender vegetation.
Significant...Freeze expected (less than or equal to 32 degrees)
 for 3 hours or more during the growing season with significant
 damage to unprotected tender vegetation.
Elevated...Frost expected during the growing season with damage
 to unprotected tender vegetation. This may include temperatures
 less than 32 degrees for 1-2 hours.
Limited...Patchy frost during the growing season with minor
 damage to unprotected tender vegetation.

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