Flash Flood Warning 12, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
758 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

...MAIN SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT CONCENTRATING FARTHER NORTH...

.UPDATE...
Updated for evening discussion.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Update discussion for the remainder of the night:

Convection coming into our northwest Arklamiss Delta zones is
really struggling to remain severe, in at least a widespread
fashion, and the Storm Prediction Center has lowered the risk of
severe weather in portions of the forecast area. The previous
ENHANCED risk has been pulled entirely north of our region,
although a SLIGHT risk still covers many northern zones into the
early morning hours as a squall line of showers and thunderstorms
progresses in from the east.

Despite the warmth, moisture near the ground has not been
sufficient to really break the thermal cap a few thousand feet
above the ground and has kept worrisome pre-frontal supercells
from occurring. In the past few hours there have been some
shallow, rotating pre-frontal cells in northern zones near the
I-55 corridor but these cells have diminished before getting
robust and slowly diminishing instability gives confidence any
deep convection should mainly be confined to the aforementioned
squall line along and just in advance of the incoming cold front.
Of course the squall line itself could produce severe weather but
the trends of prime juxtaposition of shear and instability well to
our north will likely continue, and in fact low level shear
should slowly weaken in our area through the night. But even
considering all this there is still enough residual instability
and shear to keep a severe concern in mentioned northern zones
into the early morning hours (or at least until the main
convective line passes). The main risk with any severe activity
will be damaging wind gusts, although in northern zones a stray
tornado still cannot be ruled out. Farther south (mainly along
and south of the I-20 corridor) we will maintain a low-end
MARGINAL risk for severe weather where some isolated reports of
severe weather due to damaging winds gusts cannot yet be ruled
out. Tornadoes are even less likely here but cannot quite yet be
determined to be absolutely no threat. Graphics and HWO are being
updated to reflect the latest thinking.

Of course pockets of heavy rain are still anticipated tonight,
especially in the far northwest Arklamiss Delta where residual
saturated conditions will make flash flooding somewhat easy to
achieve. Farther southeast the prospect of overall less vigorous
convection is also bringing down the risk for flash flooding
issues in most other areas, although a limited risk in the
flooding category still seems valid in the graphics and HWO.

Looking ahead, we anticipate the shallow boundary to push
southeast through the whole region by 7 to 8 am with another
incoming shortwave tomorrow likely picking up rain and embedded
thunderstorms (of a more isentropic nature) as we go through
Sunday. There is a MARGINAL risk in far southeastern MS zones of
an isolated severe storm tomorrow. This risk is mainly conditional
on uncertainty on exactly where the front will stall; if it
stalls in the morning just south of HBG then it opens up the
possibility of the boundary inflecting back north into the Pine
Belt by afternoon. If the latter were to happen then a
juxtaposition of decent shear and low level instability may be
able to continue a low end severe weather risk north of the coast.
/BB/

Prior discussion below:

Rest of Today into Sunday...Warm conditions and gusty southerly will
continue across the forecast area for the remainder of this
afternoon.  With wind gusts reaching upwards of 40-45 mph in the
Delta this afternoon and evening, while sustained between 25-30 mph,
a Wind Advisory remains in effect until midnight tonight.  Some
scattered showers, and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm or two, will
be possible. However, most of the CWA will remain dry until the
evening and overnight hours.

The potential for severe storms will increase from west to east this
evening, persisting through the overnight hours, before finally
coming to an end early Sunday morning.  This will come about as a
strong storm system lifts northeast out of the Southern Plains,
across the Mid-South region, and into the Ohio River Valley over the
next 24 hours.  This will drag a strong cold front into the region,
where a warm and unstable airmass resides.  With sufficient deep-
layer wind shear and adequate instability, some storms that develop
along, and possibly just ahead of, the front could be severe.

With high-res model data in agreement, it appears this severe
potential will come in the form of a squall-line of storms, where
both breaks in the line and/or bowing segments are possible.  This
line currently looks most defined, due to better forcing, across
the northern half of the CWA, but specifically in the vicinity of
the Highway 82 corridor as it races east across the region. Damaging
winds will be the primary concern with these storms, but some
tornados will also be possible. Currently, the best potential for
such storms is in the Delta region, or generally along and north of
a Bastrop, LA to Grenada, MS line, where an "Enhanced" risk of
severe storms exists. This is where severe storms are expected.
South of this line, but staying north of a Jonesville, LA to
Jackson, MS to DeKalb, MS line, a "Slight" risk for severe storms
exists and severe storms are possible.  Then south of this line, and
essentially covering the remaining east and southern portions of the
forecast area, a "Marginal" risk for isolated severe storms exists.

In addition to all of this, the potential for heavy rain, potentially
resulting in flash flooding and additional river flooding, will
continue across mainly northwestern portions of the CWA this evening
and into early Sunday morning.  With an additional one to two inches
of rain expected over already saturated soils from recent heavy
rains, localized flash flooding could become a concern across the
Delta region once again.

The potential for severe storms will quickly come to an end after
the leading edge of the squall-line pushes through an area.  Also,
the further east this system shifts across the ArkLaMiss, the
forcing associated with it will lift further north and out of our
neck of the woods.  Thus, the overall severe potential should wane
through early Sunday morning, when the front should reside in the
vicinity of a Columbus, MS to Brookhaven, MS line.

Winds will then shift out of the north behind the front, with cooler
drier air beginning to advect south into the region.  The front will
lose its upper level support, and essentially stall across mainly
the southern half of the CWA Sunday morning.  Though severe storms
are not expected with this, another disturbance will lift northeast
in the vicinity of the front and through the forecast area late
Sunday afternoon.  This will cause rain to once again overspread the
forecast area from southwest to northeast late in the day.  Again,
although an isolated storm of two will be possible Sunday afternoon,
these storms are currently not expected to be severe.  However, some
heavy rain could lead to the ponding of water on area roads, as well
as in low-lying and poor drainage areas, as well as further
aggravate already high rivers across much of the area. /19/

Sunday night through Friday...Sunday evening PWATs will still be
around an inch and a half when a shortwave within our southwest
flow aloft will lead to redevelopment of showers and thunderstorms
with heavy rainfall to spread back to the north across our CWA. A
weak surface low may also develop along the old frontal boundary
and track east just south of our CWA. Additional rainfall amounts
of one to two inches will be possible Sunday night into Monday
morning before drier air moves into our area in the wake of the
shortwave. Dry weather is expected by noon Monday and will
continue Monday night but WAA will increase deep moisture and lead
to the old cold front returning north as a warm front Tuesday. This
will occur in response to a closed low over Southern California
Tuesday morning that will swing across the desert southwest
Tuesday night and lift over the Southern Plains Wednesday. Daytime
heating Tuesday will contribute to convective development from
the southwest by afternoon. Inch and a half PWATs will be back
over our CWA Wednesday afternoon but the bulk of the heavy rain is
expected to fall just north of Highway 82 near the warm front
until Wednesday night when the cold front will drop into our CWA.
Windy conditions will likely develop over our west Wednesday
afternoon and evening ahead of the front. There are some timing
differences with the front but it should move into our northwest
most zones prior to midnight and then clear our CWA by noon
Thursday. Cooler and drier weather is expected Thursday night
through Friday night. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF discussion:

Patchy MVFR ceilings are anticipated this evening due to low
ceilings with a majority of the region this evening experiencing
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. However, up toward
GLH/GWO a solid line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to
come through before midnight with these storms producing brief IFR
conditions and potential for very gusty winds. Expect these storms
to eventually make it east to HKS/JAN/GTR/CBM/NMM/MEI from
midnight through the early morning hours, although the intensity
of the storms will likely decrease a bit by that point. Expect low
clouds in the MVFR to IFR range to increase late tonight through
midday tomorrow as widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms
enter back into the picture from the southwest. /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       58  61  51  70 /  92  76  90  13
Meridian      58  62  54  70 /  90  77  94  42
Vicksburg     56  59  49  69 /  92  78  82   8
Hattiesburg   64  67  57  71 /  66  89  95  55
Natchez       58  63  52  70 /  94  91  89  10
Greenville    53  58  46  66 /  99  37  49   5
Greenwood     54  60  47  68 /  94  43  72   7

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

19/22/BB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
242 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

ARZ074-075-LAZ007-MSZ018-019-025-034-251200-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-Bolivar-Sunflower-Leflore-Washington-
242 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, and northwest Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Sunday...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Enhanced
TIMING...Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Tonight

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Tonight

A wind advisory is in effect for southerly winds gusting up to 45
mph this afternoon and evening.

For tonight, a squall line containing damaging winds and potential
tornadoes will move across the area late this evening. Brief, but
intense rainfall rates could also result in flash flooding, and
further aggrevate ongoing river flooding.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image1.png)
(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image2.png)
(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image3.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday night through Friday...

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region tonight.

LAZ025-MSZ030>033-036>039-042>045-047-048-251200-
Tensas-Clay-Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Holmes-Attala-Winston-
Noxubee-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Warren-Hinds-
242 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, central Mississippi, and northeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Sunday...

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Tonight through Sunday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Tonight

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Tonight

Southerly winds will gust up to 35 mph this afternoon and
evening.

For tonight, a squall line containing the potential for damaging
winds and perhaps a tornado will move across the area, mainly from
late evening into the early morning hours on Sunday. Brief, but
intense rainfall rates could result in flash flooding, and further
aggrevate ongoing river flooding.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image1.png)
(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image2.png)
(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image3.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday night through Friday...

There is limited threat for flash flooding as another round of
potentially heavy rainfall is expected from late Sunday through
Sunday night.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image4.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region tonight.

MSZ028-029-251200-
Montgomery-Webster-
242 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north central
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Sunday...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Tonight

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Tonight

Southerly winds will gust up to 35 mph this afternoon and
evening.

For tonight, a squall line containing the potential for damaging
winds and perhaps a tornado will move across the area, mainly from
late evening into the early morning hours on Sunday. Brief, but
intense rainfall rates could result in flash flooding, and further
aggrevate ongoing river flooding.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image1.png)
(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image2.png)
(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image3.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday night through Friday...

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region tonight.

LAZ008-009-015-016-023-MSZ035-040-041-251200-
West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-Madison LA-Franklin LA-
Humphreys-Issaquena-Sharkey-
242 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, central Mississippi, and west central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Sunday...

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Mainly Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Tonight

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Tonight

A wind advisory is in effect for southerly winds gusting up to 45
mph this afternoon and evening.

For tonight, a squall line containing the potential for damaging
winds and perhaps a tornado will move across the area, mainly from
late evening into the early morning. Brief, but intense rainfall
rates could cause flash flooding.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image1.png)
(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image2.png)
(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image3.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday night through Friday...

There is limited threat for flash flooding as another round of
potentially heavy rainfall is expected from late Sunday through
Sunday night.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image4.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region tonight.

LAZ024-026-MSZ046-049>066-072>074-251200-
Catahoula-Concordia-Kemper-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-
Claiborne-Copiah-Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-
Franklin MS-Lincoln-Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-
Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
242 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, central Mississippi, east central Mississippi, and
south central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Sunday...

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Tonight through Sunday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Tonight

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Tonight

Southerly winds will gust up to 30 to 35 mph this afternoon and
evening.

For tonight, a squall line containing the potential for damaging
winds will move across the area, mainly from late evening into
the early morning. Brief, but intense rainfall rates could cause
flash flooding.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image1.png)
(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image2.png)
(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image3.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday night through Friday...

There is limited threat for flash flooding as another round of
potentially heavy rainfall is expected from late Sunday through
Sunday night.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image4.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region tonight.

MSZ026-027-251200-
Grenada-Carroll-
242 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north central
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Sunday...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Tonight

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Tonight

A wind advisory is in effect for southerly winds gusting up to 45
mph this afternoon and evening.

For tonight, a squall line containing the potential for damaging
winds and perhaps a tornado will move across the area, mainly from
late evening into the early morning. Brief, but intense rainfall
rates could cause flash flooding.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image1.png)
(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image2.png)
(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image3.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday night through Friday...

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region tonight.

19

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms are expected.
Moderate...Severe storms expected with significant
 severe weather possible.
Enhanced...Severe storms expected.
Slight...Severe storms possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe storms possible.

*FLOODING*
Extreme...Confident in significant flooding.
Significant...Significant flooding possible.
Elevated...Confident in flooding.
Limited...Flooding possible.

*NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS*
Extreme...Sustained winds 50 mph or greater or wind gusts 65 mph
 or greater.
Significant...Sustained winds 40-49 mph or wind gusts 58-64 mph.
Elevated...Sustained winds 30-39 mph or wind gusts 45-57 mph.
Limited...Sustained winds 20-29 mph or wind gusts 30 to 44 mph.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/
...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR FLOODING ISSUES...

Current Watches and Warnings...
   www.weather.gov/jan/safe_HeavyRain

Observed Precipitation Images...
   www.weather.gov/jan/precipmaps

River Forecast Center...
   www.weather.gov/lmrfc/
Significant River Flood Outlook...
   www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html
Day 1 through 3 Excessive Rainfall...
   www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml
Excessive Rainfall Discussion...
   www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpferd.html
Day 1 through 7 QPF...
   www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml
QPF Discussion...
   www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfpfd.html

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
519 PM CST SAT FEB 24 2018

MSZ027-036-242345-
Carroll MS-Holmes MS-
519 PM CST SAT FEB 24 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN HOLMES AND
SOUTHWESTERN CARROLL COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM CST...

At 519 PM CST, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
near Tchula, or 12 miles northeast of Thornton, moving northeast at
45 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Black Hawk and Seven Pines around 535 PM CST.
  Emory around 540 PM CST.
  Coila around 545 PM CST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3312 9017 3320 9025 3345 9002 3324 8977
TIME...MOT...LOC 2319Z 227DEG 37KT 3318 9016

NF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
521 PM CST SAT FEB 24 2018

MSZ042-242345-
Yazoo MS-
521 PM CST SAT FEB 24 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN YAZOO COUNTY UNTIL
545 PM CST...

At 521 PM CST, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
over Little Yazoo, or 9 miles south of Yazoo City, moving northeast
at 40 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Benton around 535 PM CST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3289 9000 3288 8997 3286 8998 3285 8999
      3266 9036 3272 9044 3298 9025
TIME...MOT...LOC 2321Z 224DEG 35KT 3273 9035

NF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
538 PM CST SAT FEB 24 2018

MSZ027-028-250015-
Carroll MS-Montgomery MS-
538 PM CST SAT FEB 24 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN CARROLL AND
SOUTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM CST...

At 538 PM CST, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
near Black Hawk, moving northeast at 45 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Vaiden around 550 PM CST.
  Winona around 600 PM CST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3341 8956 3324 8987 3329 9003 3335 9008
      3358 8975
TIME...MOT...LOC 2338Z 232DEG 39KT 3333 8994

TW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
547 PM CST SAT FEB 24 2018

MSZ036-042-250015-
Yazoo MS-Holmes MS-
547 PM CST SAT FEB 24 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN HOLMES AND
NORTHEASTERN YAZOO COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM CST...

At 547 PM CST, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
near Ebenezer, or 16 miles east of Yazoo City, moving northeast at 35
mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Ebenezer around 555 PM CST.
  Pickens around 600 PM CST.
  Franklin and Goodman around 610 PM CST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3310 8999 3298 8988 3293 8990 3292 8992
      3291 8992 3291 8994 3290 8994 3289 8996
      3285 8999 3281 9017 3289 9024
TIME...MOT...LOC 2347Z 231DEG 31KT 3288 9013

NF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
717 PM CST SAT FEB 24 2018

ARZ074-250215-
Ashley AR-
717 PM CST SAT FEB 24 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN ASHLEY COUNTY UNTIL 815
PM CST...

At 716 PM CST, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
near Old Milo, or 8 miles north of North Crossett, moving northeast
at 55 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hamburg, Montrose, Fountain Hill, Old Milo, Snyder and Blanchton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3321 9213 3321 9208 3324 9209 3325 9205
      3327 9204 3328 9204 3328 9200 3330 9200
      3331 9198 3335 9199 3335 9197 3338 9196
      3339 9198 3340 9199 3339 9146 3328 9146
      3316 9214
TIME...MOT...LOC 0116Z 239DEG 46KT 3329 9199

DL