Special Weather Statement, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
349 PM EDT Thu Sep 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 350 PM EDT Thu Sep 20 2018

A chance for a shower or storm will exist through this evening, mainly
along and north of the Toll Road into this evening. There will be
a chance of showers and thunderstorms again midday Friday into the
early afternoon hours. A few strong storms could develop east of a
Marion Indiana to Wauseon Ohio line. Cooler temperatures and dry
weather will then filter in behind a cold front. Highs will only
reach into the 60s on Saturday, then mainly in the 70s early next
week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 341 PM EDT Thu Sep 20 2018

Feeble mid level lapse rates within solidified warm sector across
CWA should prove large factor in keeping convection limited and
shallow, primarily across northwest CWA this evening, primarily
coincident with peak heating with MLCAPE 2000-2500 j/kg. Additional
low end chances overnight in same general area as upstream strong
convection this evening across northern IA/southeastern MN undergoes
decay with eastward progress into stabilizing environment/offset by
leading edge of unseasonably strong 40-60M/12 hr mid level height
falls. Focus on short window of opportunity for strong/possibly low
end severe convection in far southeast CWA. Race will be between
upscale growth, dependent upon convective debris coverage in morning
hours that dictates upscale growth rate and the eastward sweep of
the strong longwave trough axis through the northern Great Lakes and
associated trailing cold front. Axis of pooled prefrontal dewpoints
suggest best window of opportunity for thunderstorms 18-21 UTC,
primarily along and east of Marion to Wauseon line. Then an hour or
so later for time to congeal into linear segments/short lived bows
within a smaller Portland to Napoleon and east line for low end
strong/severe window risk.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 341 PM EDT Thu Sep 20 2018

Broad northwest Canadian originated surface ridge to overspread
Great Lakes this weekend behind strong Friday midday/afternoon
frontal passage and bring substantial airmass exchange with
Saturday afternoon highs only into the middle/upper 60s. Gradual
thermal moderation to seasonable 70s Sunday-Tuesday as ridge moves
into northern New England. Chances for showers/possible storms
ramp Monday night through early Tuesday night associated with next
strong northern stream trough and frontal boundary approach. Cool
low levels should limit any storm strength during this period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 107 PM EDT Thu Sep 20 2018

VFR flight conditions expected throughout the forecast period.
Southwesterly winds this afternoon with gusts to 18 knots. Cold
front approaches from the northwest early Friday morning resulting
in low level wind shear for a few hours until the front passes.
Left a brief chance of showers at both TAF sites but guidance
indicating front will be mainly dry as it passes through. After
the frontal passage winds will remain 10 to 15 knots with
occasional stronger gusts out of the southwest until the end of
the TAF period.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT
     Saturday for LMZ043-046.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Murphy
SHORT TERM...Murphy
LONG TERM...Murphy
AVIATION...Heidelberger

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
352 PM EDT THU SEP 20 2018

MIZ078-202015-
Cass-
352 PM EDT THU SEP 20 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN CASS COUNTY...

At 352 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Edwardsburg, or
7 miles northwest of Simonton Lake, moving east at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Cassopolis, Edwardsburg, Union, Vandalia, Dailey, Paradise Lake,
Calvin Center, Adamsville, Juno Lake, Donnell Lake, Diamond Lake,
Shavehead Lake and Eagle Lake.

&&

LAT...LON 4176 8584 4176 8612 4189 8613 4195 8586
TIME...MOT...LOC 1952Z 260DEG 15KT 4183 8606

Brown

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
410 PM EDT THU SEP 20 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 PM     HAIL             2 SSE SOUTH BEND        41.65N 86.25W
09/20/2018  E0.25 INCH       ST. JOSEPH         IN   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

MCD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
439 PM EDT THU SEP 20 2018

MIZ080-202115-
Branch-
439 PM EDT THU SEP 20 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN BRANCH COUNTY...

At 438 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Bronson, or 11
miles east of Sturgis, moving east at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Bronson, Batavia, Gilead and Matteson Lake.

&&

LAT...LON 4181 8529 4192 8529 4197 8508 4179 8504
TIME...MOT...LOC 2038Z 263DEG 16KT 4186 8521

Brown