Small Craft Advisory 80, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
247 PM EST Thu Dec 27 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 245 PM EST Thu Dec 27 2018

Periods of rain and windy conditions will continue into tonight
with temperatures rising into the upper 40s and low 50s. Drier air
will filter in behind a cold front tomorrow with temperatures
falling back into the upper 30s to mid 40s by late in the day.
Light lake effect showers and drizzle will be possible Friday
night into early Saturday morning. This will be followed by dry
and seasonable conditions for the remainder of the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 245 PM EST Thu Dec 27 2018

Widespread/wind driven rain this afternoon within warm/moist
conveyor belt (preceding an Upper Midwest low pressure system) will
trend more showery tonight as mid level dry slot overspreads. Held
with likely (60-70 PoPs) for most of the night as low level
trough/moisture axis swings through under this dry slot with 925 mb
dewpoints reaching 10-12 C in perturbed sw flow. Windy otherwise
with temps on the rise into the upper 40s and mid 50s.

A few lingering areas of drizzle/light showers Friday morning should
be followed by a dry afternoon as initial shot of low level dry/cool
advection filters east. A few breaks in the cloud cover not out of
the question later Friday morning/afternoon, especially southern and
eastern zones, with temps gradually falling during this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 245 PM EST Thu Dec 27 2018

Trailing secondary trough axis and weak vorticity maxima will
pivot through the area Friday night into early Saturday. This weak
forcing in tandem with some lake enhancement (850 mb temps drop
to near -10C) support going mid chance PoPs across mainly northern
portions of the forecast area during this time. Moisture above
the -10C level remains questionable in fcst soundings and time
height cross sections, so could see drizzle mix in with any light
snow showers/flurries. Little/if any accumulations or impacts are
expected regardless. The rest of the weekend (Sat PM into Sun)
continues to look quiet with seasonable temps as low level ridging
builds in under confluent flow aloft.

Models over the last 24 hours have come into better agreement with
the ECMWF in absorbing deeper moisture northeast into the region by
later Sunday night/Monday. This occurs as renewed longwave troughing
into the Northern Rockies/Plains kicks leftover shortwave energy
over the Four Corners toward the Lower Lakes and OH Valley. Model
thermal profiles once again favor rain, though heavier totals and
any hydro issues likely focus to the south-southeast across the
Lower OH/TN Valleys.

Arctic front still on track to bring a transient shot of cold air
and lake effect snow chances for the middle of the next (Tue-Wed).

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1158 AM EST Thu Dec 27 2018

Conditions have started to deteriorate at the terminals as
showers spread northeastward. Categories have already fallen to
MVFR for KSBN and KFWA will follow by 18Z. A drop to IFR is
expected at both terminals as a warm front propagates northward
across IN this afternoon. Shower activity should diminish after
00Z as a 700mb dry layer works in from the southwest. Strong low
level winds will prolong LLWS concerns well into the overnight
hours tonight. Ceilings improve back to MVFR during the late
morning hours but a return to VFR looks outside of this forecast
window.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Saturday for LMZ043-046.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Steinwedel
SHORT TERM...Steinwedel
LONG TERM...Steinwedel
AVIATION...CM

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Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
213 PM EST Thu Dec 27 2018

INZ003-004-MIZ077-078-281915-
La Porte-St. Joseph IN-Berrien-Cass MI-
213 PM EST Thu Dec 27 2018 /113 PM CST Thu Dec 27 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana and
southwest Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Southerly winds will gust between 35 and 45 mph at times this
afternoon into this evening. This may create difficult driving
conditions for high profile vehicles. Unsecured outdoor objects may
be blown around as well.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There is a chance for light lake effect snow showers Friday night.

Much colder arctic air will begin to move into our region around
Tuesday or Wednesday next week. Lake effect snow showers and wind
chills around zero are possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

INZ005>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ079>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-281915-
Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-Pulaski-Marshall-
Fulton IN-Kosciusko-Whitley-Allen IN-White-Cass IN-Miami-Wabash-
Huntington-Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-St. Joseph MI-Branch-
Hillsdale-Williams-Fulton OH-Defiance-Henry-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-
Allen OH-
213 PM EST Thu Dec 27 2018 /113 PM CST Thu Dec 27 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana, southwest
Michigan and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Southerly winds will gust between 35 and 45 mph at times this
afternoon into this evening. This may create difficult driving
conditions for high profile vehicles. Unsecured outdoor objects may
be blown around as well.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Much colder arctic air will begin to move into our region around
Tuesday or Wednesday next week. Wind chills in the single digits to
around zero are possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LMZ043-046-281915-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
213 PM EST Thu Dec 27 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for The Nearshore Waters of
Southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Conditions hazardous to small craft are expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Conditions hazardous to small craft are expected to continue into
Friday evening.

Hazardous conditions will likely develop again next week behind an
arctic cold front.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.