Severe Thunderstorm Warning 20, NWS Indianapolis, IN

110 
WWUS53 KIND 311622
SVSIND

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1222 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

INC083-311700-
/O.CON.KIND.SV.W.0020.000000T0000Z-180531T1700Z/
Knox IN-
1222 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM EDT
FOR CENTRAL KNOX COUNTY...

At 1221 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Mount Carmel,
moving northeast at 60 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Vincennes, Russellville, Monroe City, Bruceville, Decker and
Vincennes University.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3848 8773 3851 8765 3855 8767 3859 8761
      3864 8762 3868 8753 3874 8750 3886 8755
      3890 8753 3855 8724 3851 8730 3854 8735
      3851 8737 3854 8740 3853 8748 3850 8749
      3852 8754 3845 8760 3846 8766 3841 8774
TIME...MOT...LOC 1621Z 243DEG 50KT 3848 8777 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

PUMA

399 
WWUS53 KIND 311634
SVSIND

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1234 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

INC083-311700-
/O.CON.KIND.SV.W.0020.000000T0000Z-180531T1700Z/
Knox IN-
1234 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM EDT
FOR CENTRAL KNOX COUNTY...

At 1234 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near St.
Francisville, or 9 miles south of Vincennes, moving northeast at 55
mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Vincennes, Russellville, Monroe City, Bruceville, Decker and
Vincennes University.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3848 8773 3851 8765 3855 8767 3859 8761
      3864 8762 3868 8753 3874 8750 3886 8755
      3890 8753 3855 8724 3851 8730 3854 8735
      3851 8737 3854 8740 3853 8748 3850 8749
      3852 8754 3845 8760 3846 8766 3841 8774
TIME...MOT...LOC 1634Z 232DEG 47KT 3855 8756 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

PUMA

751 
WWUS53 KIND 311658
SVSIND

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1258 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

INC083-311707-
/O.EXP.KIND.SV.W.0020.000000T0000Z-180531T1700Z/
Knox IN-
1258 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL KNOX COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 100 PM EDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore the warning will be allowed to expire.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 600 PM EDT for
southwestern Indiana.

LAT...LON 3848 8773 3851 8765 3855 8767 3859 8761
      3864 8762 3868 8753 3874 8750 3886 8755
      3890 8753 3855 8724 3851 8730 3854 8735
      3851 8737 3854 8740 3853 8748 3850 8749
      3852 8754 3845 8760 3846 8766 3841 8774
TIME...MOT...LOC 1657Z 241DEG 41KT 3867 8728 

$$

PUMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1032 AM EDT Thu May 31 2018

.UPDATE...
Aviation section updated

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 323 AM EDT Thu May 31 2018

The remnants of Alberto have pushed off to the northeast, but
showers and thunderstorms will still be possible from this
afternoon through Friday as an upper trough passes through central
Indiana. After that though, high pressure will bring dry
conditions for the first part of the weekend. Further out, an
elongated upper low will impact the region early in the extended
period. Meanwhile, temperatures through the period will remain
above normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /This afternoon/...

Issued at 931 AM EDT Thu May 31 2018

Surface analysis late this morning shows mainly SW flow in place
across Central Indiana. Indiana was found caught between Low
pressure over Ontario and High pressure over the southeastern
States. A short wave was found over Eastern Missouri...sliding
eastward. GOES16 shows a few clouds across southern parts of
Indiana...associated with some weak decaying thunderstorms. Dew
points across Central Indiana remained very high...near 70.

Next few hours should remain dry across Central Indiana...however
instability due to daytime heating should result showers and storm
development this afternoon as the short wave over Missouri
approaches. Forecast soundings show favorable steep lapse
rates with over 2500 J/KG of CAPE. Given the expected trajectory
of the approaching wave and ongoing convection...best forcing
should be found across the southern parts of the forecast area and
we have focused highest pops in that location. Severe storms will
be possible as this wave approaches late this afternoon and
evening.

Given the full sun and very warm air mass in place have trended
highs slightly above the forecast builder blends.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday Night/...

Issued at 323 AM EDT Thu May 31 2018

Focus will have to remain on the southern portions of central
Indiana into tonight for any convective development. Upward vertical
velocity begins to wane a bit between Fri 00-03Z with loss of some
diurnal heating, but there is still enough enhancement for
concern through Fri 06Z for strong to severe thunderstorms. So,
this period will have to be monitored the closest during the short
term period. After that, it will take awhile for drier air to work
into the environment as ridging strengthens over the Upper Midwest
tonight. As a result, some showers and thunderstorms could linger
(mainly east) into tomorrow. As the ridging strengthens to the
northwest though, dry conditions will return from Friday night
through Saturday.

Late in the short term period, focus then turns to the next low
pressure system over the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest. Rain
chances will start increasing across the western portions of
central Indiana by Saturday evening ahead of this system. This was
highlighted well by latest blended initialization. So, no changes
were made.

Temperatures through the period will remain above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /Sunday Through Wednesday/...
Issued at 235 AM EDT Thu May 31 2018

Mostly quiet weather is in store for the long term under the
influence of surface high pressure and northwest flow aloft ahead of
a high amplitude central states upper ridge. The exception may be
the first six hours or so when a few storms are possible associated
with a trough swinging through.

Low level thermal progs and plenty of sunshine should result in
slightly above normal temperatures with highs mostly in the lower
and middle 80s per the blend. Confidence in the trends is high.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 1531000Z IND Tafs/...

VFR Conditions are expected the next Several hours. Better chances
for showers and thunderstorms will arrive late this afternoon and
evening as a short wave combined with afternoon daytime heating
instability arrive from the Missouri and Illinois. For
now...mainly VCTS window have been used to define TSRA periods. As
usual...any TSRA that does strike a TAF site will likely result
in brief MVFR or worse conditions.

Previous Discussion below

/Discussion for 311200z TAF Issuance/... Issued at 700 AM EDT Thu
May 31 2018

High confidence in VFR conditions through 19z. Then, thunderstorms
will be increasing in coverage along with the potential for reduced
flying conditions.

Winds will be generally south and southwest 5 to 11 knots outside of
storms and storm outflow.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...Puma
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK/JP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
329 AM EDT Thu May 31 2018

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-011000-
Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery-Boone-
Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Vermillion-Parke-Putnam-
Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan-Johnson-Shelby-
Rush-Sullivan-Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew-Decatur-Knox-Daviess-
Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings-
Including the cities of Lafayette, Frankfort, Kokomo,
Crawfordsville, Anderson, Muncie, Indianapolis, Terre Haute,
Shelbyville, Bloomington, Columbus, Vincennes, Bedford, and Seymour
329 AM EDT Thu May 31 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Outlook: Showers and thunderstorms will redevelop this afternoon.
Some of these storms could be strong or severe late this afternoon
and evening, especially south of Interstate 74. An isolated tornado
can not be ruled out south of Carlisle and Bedford.

Hazards: Damaging winds, large hail, isolated tornadoes, brief heavy
rain and cloud to ground lightning.

Timing: Mainly late this afternoon and evening.

Discussion: A frontal system and upper wave will move through
central Indiana tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Outlook: A pair of frontal systems will bring a chance of
thunderstorms to central Indiana Friday and Friday evening and again
Saturday night through early afternoon Sunday. Severe storms are not
expected. However, any storm can produce brief heavy rain, gusty
winds and cloud to ground lightning.

Discussion: A pair of cold fronts will result in the threat for
early and late weekend thunderstorms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate
information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind