Severe Thunderstorm Warning 12, NWS Indianapolis, IN

431 
WWUS53 KIND 152351
SVSIND

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
751 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2018

INC153-167-160015-
/O.CON.KIND.SV.W.0012.000000T0000Z-180516T0015Z/
Vigo IN-Sullivan IN-
751 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHERN VIGO AND NORTHEASTERN SULLIVAN COUNTIES...

At 750 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 9 miles southeast of
Marshall, Illinois, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail. 

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect considerable 
         tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes, 
         roofs, and outbuildings. 

Locations impacted include...
Shelburn, Prairieton, Prairie Creek, Farmersburg, Hymera, Fairbanks,
Riley and Pimento.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Prepare immediately for large hail and damaging winds. People outside
should move to a shelter, inside a strong building and away from
windows.

To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency.
They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in
Indianapolis.

&&

LAT...LON 3931 8760 3934 8758 3934 8756 3935 8754
      3935 8753 3941 8753 3940 8724 3912 8724
      3921 8758 3922 8757 3924 8758 3925 8757
      3925 8760 3928 8761 3930 8760 3931 8762
TIME...MOT...LOC 2350Z 285DEG 19KT 3932 8755 

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$
CP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
651 PM EDT Tue May 15 2018

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 358 PM EDT Tue May 15 2018

A front will meander about Indiana for the next several days,
keeping chances for thunderstorms in the forecast off and on as
waves moves along the front. Temperatures should remain above
normal, but with the front sinking south of the area at times may be
closer to normal than the last few days.

&&

.NEAR TERM /This evening and Tonight /...

Issued at 358 PM EDT Tue May 15 2018

Only a couple of thunderstorms across the forecast area currently
this afternoon on radar. However expect to see coverage increase
given the trends in hi res models and both a surface front/wind
shift sinking through the area along with a separate pressure trough
to its south. Given the warm moist air and these boundaries along
with a weak upper wave approaching expect to see coverage increase
late this afternoon and evening. Further development will likely be
south of the area drenched earlier today, with northern parts of the
forecast area seeing decreased temperatures and thus less
instability under the full cloud cover. No big severe concerns given
lack of strong forcing, but given the instability will have to
monitor for an isolated damaging wind gust or small hail, as well as
potential for brief spin-ups along those boundaries.

As the night wears on, convection should sink further south and east
as a wave moves out of the area. Near morning could see another wave
moving in from the southwest bring chances up from the south again.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Wednesday through Friday /...

Issued at 358 PM EDT Tue May 15 2018

A front will sink south of the area on
Wednesday. A wave moving along this front will allow for chances for
thunderstorms across the southern half or so of the area on
Wednesday, but by Wednesday evening the front settling south of
the Ohio river should allow for only slight chances for storms
across the far southern counties. Thursday afternoon chances could
again increase as another wave could make its way along the
front, but this should be out of the area by Thursday night. An
upper low stalling out and washing out over the area could allow
for increased chances for storms on Friday. None of these times
are expected to be a washout at this point, and confidence in rain
over any point at a given time is low. That said, instability
over the area given the warm temperatures and adequate humidity
will combine with the weak and meandering forcing to most likely
produce widely scattered showers and storms daily.

For temperatures, with the front likely settling to the south, highs
will settle back into the lower 80s for the most part the next
couple of days. Lows in the mid 50s to mid 60s will be common.

&&

.LONG TERM /Friday Night Through Tuesday/...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Tue May 15 2018

Models are close enough that the model blend initialization
was accepted for most items.

For now it appears that a lingering surface front in the vicinity
combined with an upper wave will bring chances for rain to the area
Saturday night through Sunday night. Another system could bring more
rain to parts of the area later on Tuesday.

However, confidence remains low as solutions keep changing as to
when chances of rain will occur with the wave and where the surface
front will be.

Temperatures will remain above normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for 160000Z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 651 PM EDT Tue May 15 2018

A period of MVFR ceilings is possible late tonight into Wednesday
morning...otherwise VFR conditions are expected.

Convective coverage so far during the late afternoon and evening
has been relatively isolated across the region as a diffuse
frontal boundary slowly slides south. In the near term...will need
to monitor a rather impressive and persistent supercell tracking
through east central Illinois. Current extrapolation would bring
this storm just south of KHUF between 00Z and 01Z and potentially
could impact KBMG later in the evening if it holds together.

Overall model performance has once again been subpar today with
respect to convective coverage but considering the presence of the
front along with a number of outflow boundaries...think it would
be prudent to maintain a VCTS mention through the evening at all
terminals except KLAF. Have also introduced a short tempo group at
KHUF right out of the gate to account for any localized impacts
from the storm currently approaching from the west.

Should see scattered convection diminish overnight then redevelop
during the day over southern portions of central Indiana as the
frontal boundary settles near the Ohio River. Have very low
confidence in anything more than isolated to scattered storms
Wednesday afternoon with KBMG being the most likely terminal to
potentially be impacted.

Finally...model soundings remain consistent on a period with
ceilings slipping into MVFR category north of the frontal boundary
during the predawn hours into Wednesday morning before improving.
Winds will be largely from the north-northeast through the
period...with potential for variability in speed and direction
near convection.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...Ryan

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1244 PM EDT Tue May 15 2018

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-161645-
Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery-Boone-
Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Vermillion-Parke-Putnam-
Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan-Johnson-Shelby-
Rush-Sullivan-Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew-Decatur-Knox-Daviess-
Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings-
Including the cities of Lafayette, Frankfort, Kokomo,
Crawfordsville, Anderson, Muncie, Indianapolis, Terre Haute,
Shelbyville, Bloomington, Columbus, Vincennes, Bedford, and Seymour
1244 PM EDT Tue May 15 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Outlook: Scattered thunderstorms. Isolated severe storms are
possible.

Hazards: Damaging winds, large hail, frequent lightning and heavy
rain.

Timing: Thunderstorms are possible through tonight. The highest
chances for severe thunderstorms will be late afternoon through
evening.

Discussion: A lingering front across the area will continue to bring
chances for showers and thunderstorms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Outlook: There will be chances for rain and thunderstorms every day
for most areas of central Indiana, but severe weather looks
unlikely. Frequent lightning and heavy rain are the main threats.

Discussion: A nearly stationary boundary will slowly meander across
the state through the rest of the week into the weekend bringing
chances for rain showers and thunderstorms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

There is a low chance for spotter activation later this afternoon
into this evening.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate
information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
200 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2018

INZ031-151815-
Howard IN-
200 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2018

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING THROUGH...

At 200 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Kokomo, moving east at 25 mph.

Half inch hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Kokomo, Greentown and Indian Heights.

LAT...LON 4056 8586 4041 8586 4041 8591 4042 8611
      4056 8612 4057 8587
TIME...MOT...LOC 1800Z 266DEG 24KT 4052 8603

50

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
344 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2018

INZ037-039-046-047-152030-
Hendricks IN-Boone IN-Hamilton IN-Marion IN-
344 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN HENDRICKS...
NORTHWESTERN MARION...SOUTHEASTERN BOONE AND SOUTHWESTERN HAMILTON
COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

At 344 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Brownsburg, or 18 miles northwest of Indianapolis, moving east at 35
mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Indianapolis, Carmel, Brownsburg, Zionsville, Pittsboro, Whitestown,
Meridian Hills, Williams Creek and North Crows Nest.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3985 8650 3998 8653 4008 8619 3987 8612
TIME...MOT...LOC 1944Z 259DEG 28KT 3994 8641

TDUD