River Flood Warning 239, NWS Indianapolis, IN

533 
WGUS83 KIND 260107
FLSIND
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
906 PM EDT Tue Sep 25 2018

...The Flood Warning is no longer in effect for a portion of the
following waterway in Indiana...

  Sugar Creek...


.Sugar Creek fell below flood stage at Crawfordsville in west 
central Indiana late this afternoon.  The creek level is expect to 
fall for the foreseeable future.


Precautionary/Preparedness Actions...

Be alert to flood debris on previously flooded roads. Keep children 
away from flooded areas. Recreational and agricultural interests 
should remain alert to changing river conditions.

For detailed flood information go to weather.gov/ind on the web and 
click on rivers and lakes.



INC107-121-260136-
/O.CAN.KIND.FL.W.0239.000000T0000Z-180926T2120Z/
/CRWI3.1.ER.180925T2018Z.180925T2045Z.180925T2149Z.NO/
906 PM EDT Tue Sep 25 2018

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Sugar Creek at Crawfordsville.
* At 8:30 PM Tuesday the stage was 7.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Fell below flood stage at Tue 05:49 PM.
* Forecast...It will continue to fall.


&&

LAT...LON 4009 8675 3991 8701 3981 8734 3985 8739
      4000 8707 4014 8678             

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
235 PM EDT Tue Sep 25 2018

.UPDATE...The SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM sections have been
updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 235 PM EDT Tue Sep 25 2018

A cold front will drop southeast across central Indiana overnight.
The front will interact with a warm, moist and unstable atmosphere
which will result in scattered to numerous thunderstorms, a few of
which may be strong or severe.

Then, dry weather is on tap from Wednesday through the weekend.
Finally, another system will bring more showers and possibly
thunderstorms to the area early next week.

Temperatures will be below normal in the wake of the cold front but
then return to normal or above early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Rest of the Afternoon and Tonight)
Issued at 235 PM EDT Tue Sep 25 2018

Models in good agreement that a cold front, currently from eastern
Lake Superior to southeastern Iowa and northern Missouri will drop
southeast over central Indiana overnight as a sharp upper trough
moves into the western great lakes. The front and impulses in
southwest flow aloft will interact with a warm, moist and unstable
atmosphere and result in scattered to widespread thunderstorms late
this afternoon and tonight. Latest surface analysis was showing dew
points in the upper 60s to the lower 70s and despite less than
stellar mid level lapse rates, LAPS data was showing surface based
CAPEs over 1000 J/KG over east central Indiana and central Illinois.
Latest visible satellite loop was showing some breaks in the clouds
gradually moving into west central Indiana, which should allow for
further destabilization. In addition low and mid level shear will be
increasing this evening and overnight ahead of the cold front. All
this supports the SPC Day1 Slight Risk near and north of Interstate
70. Would not rule out a tornado or two mainly over our northeastern
counties and late this afternoon and tonight. Otherwise, damaging
winds will be the main severe risk.

Precipitable water values near 2 inches supports a continued heavy
rain threat. Parts of Boone, Clinton and Montgomery have already
received near 3 inches of rain over the past 12 hours. The High
Resolution Rapid Refresh was bringing southern Illinois convection
into the forecast area late this afternoon and the Iowa convection
in overnight. Additional thunderstorms will develop as well over the
area. So, the blend chance to likely PoPs look ok through tonight.

Overnight lows will vary overnight by 10 plus degrees as
northwestern sections could see lows in the lower 50s behind the
front, but areas ahead of the front will be as warm as 65 degrees
ahead of it.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Wednesday through Friday)
Issued at 235 PM EDT Tue Sep 25 2018

Models in good agreement that dry and cool weather will dominate as
surface high pressure builds in behind the cold front. Would not
completely rule out a few showers on Friday as another front moves
through, but currently moisture is too sparse to mention.

The blend looks reasonable on temperatures with highs only in the
60s Wednesday and Thursday and lower 70s on Friday. Northern
sections could see middle or upper 40s for overnight lows.

&&

.LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/...

Issued at 204 PM EDT Tue Sep 25 2018

The majority of the long term looks dry with an upper trough and
cyclonic flow moving out and upper ridging building in. This should
lead to below normal temperatures to start out but warming through
the long term. Chances for showers could move in near the end of the
long term with southwesterly flow developing ahead of a frontal
system as high pressure moves off to the east. Confidence in
temperatures near and below normal for the weekend is high but
confidence in dry conditions is low due to some variability in the
models in weak upper waves making their way through the upper flow.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for 251800z TAF issuance/...

Issued at 102 PM EDT Tue Sep 25 2018

Flying conditions should improve to VFR for a few hours this
afternoon as ceilings rise. For the first hour or two of the
TAF period scattered showers will move through the sites, then
expect to see a lull in activity before showers and storms fire
ahead of a cold front. When these storms move through (starting as
early as 23z) ceilings and vsbys will again drop to MVFR, and
after the cold front passes (around 6-9z) ceilings will drop
further to IFR or lower before conditions improve to VFR by around
mid morning Wednesday.

Southerly component winds of 7 to 12 kts with gusts at times
around 20 kts will shift to southwesterly tonight and then
northwesterly after the frontal passage around 10 kts.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
400 AM EDT Tue Sep 25 2018

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-260800-
Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery-Boone-
Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Vermillion-Parke-Putnam-
Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan-Johnson-Shelby-
Rush-Sullivan-Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew-Decatur-Knox-Daviess-
Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings-
Including the cities of Lafayette, Frankfort, Kokomo,
Crawfordsville, Anderson, Muncie, Indianapolis, Terre Haute,
Shelbyville, Bloomington, Columbus, Vincennes, Bedford, and Seymour
400 AM EDT Tue Sep 25 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Outlook: Thunderstorms will move across the area today and tonight.
Some may be severe.

Hazards: Damaging winds, isolated tornadoes, locally heavy rain and
flooding, hail, lightning.

Timing: While thunderstorms are possible anytime today and tonight,
the highest chances for severe storms will be mid afternoon into the
evening.

Discussion: Thunderstorms will continue to develop along and ahead of
a cold front. The front will move through central Indiana tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Outlook: Thunderstorms are possible on Monday.

Discussion: Quiet weather will continue into the weekend, then a cold
front will bring another chance for thunderstorms early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon into the evening.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate
information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1101 AM EDT TUE SEP 25 2018

INZ030-036-037-251530-
Montgomery IN-Clinton IN-Boone IN-
1101 AM EDT TUE SEP 25 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN CLINTON...BOONE AND
NORTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES UNTIL 1130 AM EDT...

At 1101 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles west of Lebanon, or 12 miles east of Crawfordsville, moving
east at 40 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lebanon, Thorntown, Kirklin, Colfax, Advance and Ulen.

LAT...LON 3999 8676 4019 8674 4029 8625 4001 8625
TIME...MOT...LOC 1501Z 254DEG 34KT 4007 8666

AW/CP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1209 PM EDT TUE SEP 25 2018

INZ062>064-070-071-251700-
Brown IN-Lawrence IN-Bartholomew IN-Jackson IN-Monroe IN-
1209 PM EDT TUE SEP 25 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN MONROE...
BARTHOLOMEW...BROWN...NORTHEASTERN LAWRENCE AND NORTHWESTERN JACKSON
COUNTIES UNTIL 100 PM EDT...

At 1209 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northeast of Bedford, moving northeast at 45 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Columbus, Nashville, Heltonville, Norman, Waymansville, Freetown,
Gnaw Bone, Bartlettsville, Spurgeons Corner, Monroe Reservoir,
Fairfax State Recreation Area, Elkinsville, Kurtz, Charles Deam
Wilderness, Stone Head, Story and Taylorsville.

LAT...LON 3901 8652 3934 8614 3935 8601 3919 8574
      3886 8632
TIME...MOT...LOC 1609Z 232DEG 40KT 3896 8640

AW/CP