River Flood Warning 14, NWS Indianapolis, IN

459 
WGUS83 KIND 170406
FLSIND
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1106 PM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

...The Flood Warning is no longer in effect for a portion of the
following river in Indiana...

  Mississinewa River...

.The Mississinewa River has fallen below flood stage in central
Indiana.


Precautionary/Preparedness Actions...

Be alert to flood debris on previously flooded roads. Keep children 
away from flooded areas. Recreational and agricultural interests 
should remain alert to changing river conditions.

For detailed flood information go to weather.gov/ind on the web and 
click on rivers and lakes.



INC035-135-170436-
/O.CAN.KIND.FL.W.0014.000000T0000Z-180217T0406Z/
/RIDI3.1.ER.180216T1145Z.180216T1600Z.180216T2058Z.UU/
1106 PM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Mississinewa River near Ridgeville.
* At 10:00 PM Friday the stage was 8.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.

&&

LAT...LON 4026 8496 4024 8528 4038 8551 4041 8543
      4030 8527 4029 8495             

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
950 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

.UPDATE...
Near Term and AVIATION Sections have been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 325 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

Rain will end later this morning as a cold front shifts south of the
region. High pressure will bring a brief period of dry weather into
Saturday morning. Light rain and snow will accompany a quick moving
upper wave Saturday afternoon and evening before high pressure
returns for Sunday. A slow moving frontal boundary will interact
with deep Gulf moisture and a moist southwest flow aloft to produce
an extended threat for heavy rain and potential flooding during the
first half of next week and perhaps beyond.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of Today/...
Issued at 950 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

.Update...Rain was ending across far southeast sections and will
drop mention of rain all areas after 17Z.  Otherwise...low clouds
were the rule across the rest of our region.  Satellite and weather
depiction indicated broken to scattered clouds over far northern
sections of Indiana.  Main change with this update will be to slow
down clearing a little per current observations and short term
models.   Temperatures will rise a little as clouds begin to break
up late this afternoon.  But overall current temperatures are on
track.

Portion of previous near term discussion follows...

Temps...non- diurnal trends are expected today as temps will fall
through the morning with the onset of cold advection behind the
front. Lingering clouds in tandem with the cold advection support
little movement in temps later today once they bottom out...with
perhaps a subtle bump late day as skies brighten. Overall...expect
much of the area to settle in the mid and upper 30s later today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday Night/...
Issued at 325 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

Forecast challenges focus on precip chances and type as a weak
upper wave quickly tracks through the Ohio Valley Saturday
afternoon and evening...followed by increasing rain chances late
Sunday night in what will be the opening salvo in a potentially high
impact heavy rain and flooding threat through the first half of next
week.

The aforementioned high pressure will serve as the primary influence
for the region tonight and Saturday morning as it tracks across the
area. Model soundings and RH progs continue to advertise deep
subsidence present through the column with skies expected to become
mainly clear this evening. Mid and high level clouds will begin to
increase from the south however towards daybreak Saturday as the
high shifts off to the east and moisture returns from the southwest
from a trailing surface wave riding along the frontal boundary
passing through this morning.

Clouds should continue to increase through the morning Saturday with
saturation into the boundary layer lagging the arrival of the
moisture aloft. While the surface wave will track well south of the
region along the remnant front...interaction with an upper wave
approaching from the northern Plains will help to draw some of the
moisture north into the Ohio Valley and will allow for about a 6-9
hour window with light precipitation falling over central Indiana.
Deeper moisture and lift will remain confined south of the region in
closer proximity to the Ohio River and points south. The presence of
isentropic lift and forcing associated with wave aloft will support
the light precip.

With such a dry airmass present early Saturday...evaporative cooling
processes will be at work during the day and at least presents some
uncertainty as to precip type. Think potential exists for rain and
snow to mix Saturday afternoon and evening with the possibility for
a wet snow to be prevalent at times if the boundary layer cools a
bit more than progged. 00Z NAM is on its own in the model suite and
is rather aggressive with snow over the region late Saturday
suggesting light accums. While snow is certainly possible...the
combination of surface temps generally in the mid and upper 30s for
the duration of the event and ground temps that will have been
heavily influenced by the recent warmth argues against any
substantial impact and accumulation. Think a light dusting on
grassy/elevated surfaces would be the peak of any impact and
confidence is frankly low even at that possibility. Will carry a
rain/snow mix in most locations through Saturday evening with dry
weather returning thereafter.

The remainder of the short term will be relatively quiet until the
very end late Sunday night. High pressure will reestablish late
Saturday night into Sunday with dry weather and mainly clear skies.
The high will quickly track into the mid Atlantic region by late day
Sunday with return flow developing over the Ohio Valley.
Progressively deeper moisture will advect into the region Sunday
night with gradual moistening of the lower levels taking place as
stronger isentropic lift establishes. Any rain though will likely
hold off until the predawn hours Monday as a low level jet noses
into the region from the southwest. Bring pops up quickly after 06Z
Monday with heavier rain developing during the day Monday and beyond
as copious moisture interacts with a frontal boundary moving into
the Ohio Valley. Please see the long term section below for more on
the heavy rain and flooding potential for the first half of next
week.

Temps...generally took a model blend for highs Saturday with a lean
towards the high end of guidance Sunday as warm advection develops.
A model blend matched nicely with low level thermals for lows
through the short term.

&&

.LONG TERM /Monday through Friday/...
Issued at 255 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

A very wet and warm pattern is expected next week as
southwesterly flow persists across central Indiana. There will be
3 major systems with the first moving through Sunday night into
Monday, the second Tuesday night into Wednesday, and the third
late Friday.

A surface front will move through the state Tuesday night bringing
the heaviest rain for the period. There are significant timing
differences for the frontal passage between the models which
leads to the GFS and Canadian bringing the heaviest rain to
southern Indiana and the Euro keeping it further north. Kept POPs
and QPF broad-brushed for this forecast package to reflect the
uncertainty. Widespread minor to moderate flooding is likely next
week across the state as 2-4 inches of rain falls from Monday to
Wednesday on already saturated ground.

Temperatures will be unseasonably warm on Monday and Tuesday with
highs in the 60s. After the frontal passage highs in the mid to
upper 40s are expected through the rest of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for 16/15Z KIND TAF Update/...
Issued at 950 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

Minor tweaks made to KIND TAF to better match current conditions.
No other changes are needed at this time.  Previous aviation
discussion follows...

VFR conditions will deteriorate into MVFR this morning with brief
IFR possible.

Low clouds are moving in as cold air advects into central Indiana.
IFR conditions at LAF should improve to MVFR after sunrise with
other terminals dropping from VFR to MVFR by mid morning.
Ceilings will begin to move back to VFR by mid afternoon. Winds
will be out of the north at 12-15kts today and will weaken late
today.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Ryan
NEAR TERM...Ryan/JH
 SHORT TERM...Ryan
LONG TERM....White
AVIATION...White/JH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
341 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-171000-
Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery-Boone-
Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Vermillion-Parke-Putnam-
Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan-Johnson-Shelby-
Rush-Sullivan-Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew-Decatur-Knox-Daviess-
Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings-
Including the cities of Lafayette, Frankfort, Kokomo,
Crawfordsville, Anderson, Muncie, Indianapolis, Terre Haute,
Shelbyville, Bloomington, Columbus, Vincennes, Bedford, and Seymour
341 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Outlook: No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Discussion: Rain will end this morning as a cold front departs off to
the south.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Outlook: A few hours of a rain and snow mix is possible mainly
Saturday afternoon and evening with no accumulation expected.

Significant rainfall is possible at times starting late Sunday night
and then continuing for much of next week across central Indiana.
Flooding, possibly significant flooding, could develop as a result of
this rainfall.

Discussion: A series of upper waves will interact with frontal
boundaries and a warm, moist Gulf flow to produce rain across central
Indiana for much of next week. This will result in moderate to heavy
rainfall at times, that should add up to at least lowland flooding
and possibly the development of significant river flooding next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate
information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind

Ryan