Flash Flood Watch 4, NWS Indianapolis, IN

619 
WGUS63 KIND 130237
FFAIND

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1037 PM EDT Tue Jun 12 2018


INZ072-130600-
/O.EXA.KIND.FF.A.0004.000000T0000Z-180613T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Jennings-
1037 PM EDT Tue Jun 12 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

The National Weather Service in Indianapolis has expanded the

* Flash Flood Watch to include a portion of southeast Indiana, 
  including the following area, Jennings. 

* Until 2 AM EDT Wednesday

* Thunderstorms, some with heavy rain, will move across the area 
  late this afternoon and evening. Heavy rain fell across this 
  area late in the weekend and this week and has resulted in 
  saturated ground. The additional rain on top of the saturated 
  ground could result in additional flooding across the area. 



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

INZ060-061-067>071-130600-
/O.CON.KIND.FF.A.0004.000000T0000Z-180613T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Sullivan-Greene-Knox-Daviess-Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-
Including the cities of Vincennes, Bedford, and Seymour
1037 PM EDT Tue Jun 12 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of south central Indiana and southwest Indiana, 
  including the following areas, in south central Indiana, 
  Jackson and Lawrence. In southwest Indiana, Daviess, Greene, 
  Knox, Martin, and Sullivan. 

* Until 2 AM EDT Wednesday

* Thunderstorms, some with heavy rain, will move across the area 
  late this afternoon and evening. Heavy rain fell across this 
  area late in the weekend and this week and has resulted in 
  saturated ground. The additional rain on top of the saturated 
  ground could result in additional flooding across the area. 



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
250 PM EDT Tue Jun 12 2018

.UPDATE...
The LONG TERM Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 451 AM EDT Tue Jun 12 2018

With a frontal system still in the area...periodic shower and
thunderstorm chances persist bringing with it the possibility of
additional heavy rainfall. A cold front eventually pushes south
and east of the area by Wednesday night. High pressure moves in
behind the front...keeping the forecast area dry through the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of Today/...
Issued at 220 PM EDT Tue Jun 12 2018

with little in the way of convection in the vicinity, allowed the
Flash Flood Watch to expire.

Previous discussion follows...

Issued at 929 AM EDT Tue Jun 12 2018

Forecast generally trending well. Cut temps across far west as
rain persists and cloudiness expected through rest of today.
Bumped up POPs to account for current and expected conditions,
especially across western portions of the area. Previous
discussion follows...

Focus for the near term continues to be on the heavy rain threat.
Showers and storms over central Illinois continue to push our way
early this morning. Current storm track trends will have it
passing over areas that have been impacted by previous heavy rains
on Sunday and Monday. Thus, decided to expand the Flash Flood
Watch further north and east and also now until 1800Z. Current
flash flood guidance illustrates that for some areas within the
watch it would only take around an inch in an hour or an inch and
a half in three hours to produce some flash flooding issues. Over
the southwest corner of Knox County it is even lower than that!
High chance POP continues to start the period over southwest
portions of the forecast area, where current radar trends and
short-range model solutions forecast the the heaviest of the
precipitation to fall. Models also expect this morning convection
to start to wane by 15-1700Z. Now, most projections have
additional thunderstorms redeveloping across the area by 19-2000Z.
However, it should be noted that model solutions showed the same
for Monday and that did not pan out well. Thus, confidence is not
high in the afternoon redevelopment as early as the models
project. This will be something to keep an eye on. Shear does look
a bit better for tomorrow, so the potential for more organized
convection is better. Temps will again be highly dependent on
impacts from convection.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Wednesday through Thursday Night/...
Issued at 451 AM EDT Tue Jun 12 2018

A cold front approaches the forecast area from the northwest to
begin the period and will push southeast through the area
Wednesday morning through the afternoon...shunting precipitation
chances further south. High pressure then filters into the region
behind the front...keeping the forecast area dry through the
remainder of the period.

While high temperatures are still forecast to be above normal
after the frontal passage, it should feel more comfortable than
earlier days this month as winds veer from northwest to out of the
northeast to east by Wednesday night...dropping
dewpoints/humidities to a more acceptable level for Wednesday
evening and Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/...
Issued at 249 PM EDT Tue Jun 12 2018

Ensembles in good agreement in temporarily building the heat ridge
across the Ohio Valley over the weekend, before suppressing it
back to the southwest early next week as troughing intensifies
over New England.

Long range operational model data suggest instability axis will be
located over the area this weekend, but so far both operational
and ensemble data suggest any convective complexes that may
develop will stay to the north of the forecast area this weekend.
Will keep these periods dry.

A front may begin dropping down from the north by early next week
as the heat ridge begins to retrograde. Will put some chance PoPs
in the forecast for next Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 121800Z TAFS/...
Issued at 1227 PM EDT Tue Jun 12 2018

Most of the earlier rainfall has dissipated. Some additional
convection possible this afternoon as the remnant vorticity
center moves through central Indiana, but the air mass has been
pretty worked over lately, so don't think any convective
development this afternoon will be too widespread.

Could be some additional convective potential later this evening
as another vorticity center migrates out of Missouri into
southwest Indiana. This may impact mainly the KBMG terminal later
this evening.

Otherwise, areas of MVFR ceilings 012-025 may affect the terminals
from time to time this afternoon, with short term model guidance
suggesting pockets of MVFR ceilings may linger into the evening.

Surface winds generally 200-220 at 8-12 kts this afternoon will
become 220-250 degrees at 4-7 kts by later this evening.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...MRD
NEAR TERM...White/MRD/MK
SHORT TERM...MRD
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
446 AM EDT Tue Jun 12 2018

INZ021-028>031-035>042-045>049-054>057-064-065-072-130900-
Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery-Boone-
Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Putnam-Hendricks-Marion-
Hancock-Henry-Morgan-Johnson-Shelby-Rush-Bartholomew-Decatur-
Jennings-
Including the cities of Lafayette, Frankfort, Kokomo,
Crawfordsville, Anderson, Muncie, Indianapolis, Shelbyville,
and Columbus
446 AM EDT Tue Jun 12 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Outlook: Thunderstorm activity is possible through tonight. An
isolated severe storm cannot be ruled out.

Hazards: Lightning, gusty winds, hail, and heavy rainfall which may
result in reduced visibility and localized flooding.

Timing: Thunderstorm activity possible at any time through tonight.

Discussion: A front in the area will keep a threat for thunderstorm
activity through tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Outlook: Thunderstorm activity is possible early next week.

Heat index values may exceed 95 degrees Sunday and Monday afternoons.

Discussion: Hot temperatures may spread into the area over the
weekend as an upper level ridge pushes into the region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Severe storm spotters are encouraged to monitor and report any storm
related hazards today and tonight.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate
information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind

INZ043-044-051>053-060>063-067>071-130900-
Vermillion-Parke-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Sullivan-Greene-Monroe-Brown-Knox-
Daviess-Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-
Including the cities of Terre Haute, Bloomington, Vincennes,
Bedford, and Seymour
446 AM EDT Tue Jun 12 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Outlook: Thunderstorm activity is possible through tonight. An
isolated severe storm cannot be ruled out. Heavy rain may produce
flash flooding.

Hazards: Lightning, gusty winds, hail, and heavy rainfall which may
result in reduced visibility and flash flooding.

Timing: Thunderstorm activity possible at any time through tonight.

Discussion: A front in the area will keep a threat for thunderstorm
activity through tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Outlook: Thunderstorm activity is possible early next week.

Heat index values may exceed 95 degrees Sunday and Monday afternoons.

Discussion: Hot temperatures may spread into the area over the
weekend as an upper level ridge pushes into the region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Severe storm spotters are encouraged to monitor and report any storm
related hazards today and tonight.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate
information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1036 AM EDT TUE JUN 12 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1009 AM     FLASH FLOOD      5 W DECKER              38.52N 87.62W
06/12/2018                   KNOX               IN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            COYOTE ROAD CLOSED DUE TO WATER FLOWING OVER
            ROAD.

&&

AW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1037 AM EDT TUE JUN 12 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1016 AM     FLASH FLOOD      5 WNW DECKER            38.55N 87.61W
06/12/2018                   KNOX               IN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            GREENTREE ROAD CLOSED DUE TO WATER FLOWING
            OVER ROAD.

&&

AW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1038 AM EDT TUE JUN 12 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1017 AM     FLASH FLOOD      7 WNW DECKER            38.55N 87.65W
06/12/2018                   KNOX               IN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            BLOOD WOODS ROAD CLOSED DUE TO WATER FLOWING
            OVER.

&&

AW