Areal Flood Warning 33, NWS Indianapolis, IN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
655 PM EDT Thu Jun 21 2018

.UPDATE...

The Aviation section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 242 PM EDT Thu Jun 21 2018

Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms will result in some
much needed rain for the end of the week as a low pressure system
rotates over the Mid Mississippi Valley. The core of this system
will move into central Indiana tomorrow, but bands rotating around
and ahead of it could start impacting the forecast area by this
evening. Meanwhile, a stationary boundary extending from Illinois
to the Delmarva will be an additional source of convective
development through tonight. As the aforementioned system moves
farther east on Saturday, there will be a bit of a reprieve in the
active pattern before another round of showers and thunderstorms
enter from the south on Saturday night. After that, brief ridging
will bring dry conditions early in the extended period, followed
by more showers and thunderstorms late in the period with an upper
trough.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...

Issued at 242 PM EDT Thu Jun 21 2018

The main focus of the near term period will be convective
potential.

Currently, widespread showers/isolated thunderstorms are drifting
across northeast portions of central Indiana with more isolated
activity elsewhere due to a stationary boundary in the area. These
slow moving showers are creating an increased flood threat for the
near term period, especially over the northern counties.

Meanwhile, focus is also on a line of convective activity over
Illinois that has been generating severe weather over the last few
hours. With a little bit of clearing between that line and the
current convection over central Indiana, there could be enough
time for some weak destabilization. So, will not completely rule
out the threat for isolated severe storms this evening into
tonight across central Indiana, will have to continue to monitor
that line.

In addition, temperatures tonight will generally be in the mid to
upper 60s, did not deviate from latest blended initialization.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tomorrow through Sunday/...

Issued at 242 PM EDT Thu Jun 21 2018

The main focus of the short term period will be the threat for
flooding along with showers and thunderstorms.

A broad low pressure system rotating over northern
Missouri/southern Iowa will track into central Indiana tomorrow,
keeping high rain chances in the forecast along with the threat
for isolated severe at times. PWAT values will continue to be near
1.5 inches, so flash flooding will still be a threat.

Activity will taper off though by Saturday as that system moves
farther east, and there will be a bit of a lull for Saturday night
before additional showers and thunderstorms approach from the
south on Sunday.

Temperatures through the period will generally be at or slightly
below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Thursday/...
Issued at 238 AM EDT Thu Jun 21 2018

The extended timeframe begins with an upper ridge building across
the Ohio River Valley states, while surface high pressure builds
across the area as well. Dry conditions and near to slightly above
normal temperatures are expected through Tuesday.

By Tuesday night, shower and thunderstorm chances begin to increase
as the effects from an upper level disturbance pushing our way from
the west begin. The associated surface low will push east across the
Great Lakes sending a weak cold frontal boundary into northern
portions of central Indiana late Wednesday. Kept chance POP going
for Wednesday and Wednesday night. Rainfall chances will then lessen
on Thursday as the upper system and front pull away from the area.
Warm air advection influenced by strong southwest winds pick up on
Wednesday...leading to the potential return of near 90 degree temps
on Wednesday and 90 degree temps on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 22/00Z TAFs/...
Issued at 652 PM EDT Thu Jun 21 2018

VFR initially except for IFR at LAF. This will give way to at
least MVFR at all sites later tonight into Friday, with a period
of IFR likely also.

Vertically stacked closed low pressure will be pushing through the
area much of the period, with showers, storms, and low ceilings
all threats. Visibilities may be MVFR at times in precipitation.

Winds will be variable less than 10KT throughout the period.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...Nield

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
500 PM EDT Thu Jun 21 2018

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-222100-
Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery-Boone-
Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Vermillion-Parke-Putnam-
Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan-Johnson-Shelby-
Rush-Sullivan-Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew-Decatur-Knox-Daviess-
Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings-
Including the cities of Lafayette, Frankfort, Kokomo,
Crawfordsville, Anderson, Muncie, Indianapolis, Terre Haute,
Shelbyville, Bloomington, Columbus, Vincennes, Bedford, and Seymour
500 PM EDT Thu Jun 21 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Outlook: Showers and thunderstorms are expected this evening and
tonight. A few of the storms could be strong to severe, and heavy
rainfall leading to flooding will be possible.

Hazards: Heavy rainfall, strong to damaging winds, and lightning.

Timing: The best chances for severe storms will be through the
evening. Thunderstorms will be possible any time.

Discussion: A frontal boundary moving slowly north through central
Indiana will bring showers and thunderstorms to the area. A few of
these storms could become strong to severe. With ample moisture
available, heavy rainfall is a threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Outlook: Periodic thunderstorms are possible through Sunday evening,
and again Tuesday night through Wednesday. These storms are not
expected to be severe. Slow moving storms on Friday could lead to
flooding problems.

Discussion: A couple of frontal systems will keep chances for
thunderstorms in the forecast through Sunday evening and another
system will approach on Tuesday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate
information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
735 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2018

INZ036-045-220030-
Montgomery IN-Putnam IN-
735 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN MONTGOMERY AND NORTHERN
PUTNAM COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM EDT...

At 735 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles south of Crawfordsville, moving east at 15 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Ladoga, Roachdale, New Market, Waveland, Russellville, New Ross and
Shades State Park.

LAT...LON 4006 8670 3987 8669 3979 8669 3985 8701
      3987 8701 3987 8709 3996 8709
TIME...MOT...LOC 2335Z 262DEG 14KT 3991 8697

NIELD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
800 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2018

INZ045-046-054-220100-
Morgan IN-Putnam IN-Hendricks IN-
800 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN MORGAN...
SOUTHWESTERN HENDRICKS AND CENTRAL PUTNAM COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM
EDT...

At 759 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Greencastle, or 24 miles south of Crawfordsville, moving east at 15
mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Greencastle, Danville, Monrovia, Clayton, Bainbridge, Fillmore,
Coatesville, Amo, Stilesville, Carpentersville, Groveland, Belle
Union and Little Point.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3959 8691 3981 8691 3983 8647 3955 8647
TIME...MOT...LOC 2359Z 271DEG 15KT 3969 8681

NIELD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
829 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0737 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 SW JUDSON             39.78N 87.17W
06/21/2018  M2.10 INCH       PARKE              IN   PUBLIC

&&

BHH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
927 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0828 PM     HEAVY RAIN       GREENCASTLE             39.64N 86.84W
06/21/2018  M0.97 INCH       PUTNAM             IN   PUBLIC

            AMOUNT IN 10 MINUTES.

&&

BHH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
942 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0936 PM     HAIL             1 N EDINBURGH           39.36N 85.97W
06/21/2018  E0.25 INCH       JOHNSON            IN   STORM CHASER

            APPROXIMATE LOCATION.

&&

BHH

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