Special Weather Statement, NWS Lincoln, IL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
648 PM CDT Sun Jul 1 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT Sun Jul 1 2018

Broken line of convection has developed along a pre-frontal
trough across the Illinois River Valley this afternoon. Individual
cells within the line are tracking northeastward, while the
overall line shifts slowly to the east. Based on radar timing
tools, it appears the storms will reach the I-55 corridor by
22z/5pm...then further east into east-central Illinois early this
evening. The atmosphere ahead of the line remains very unstable
characterized by SBCAPE values of around 5000J/kg. The mitigating
factor for widespread severe weather appears to be paltry mid-
level lapse rates and only very weak wind shear. Even still,
think a few of the stronger cells will be capable of producing
damaging wind gusts as the line progresses eastward. As a result,
Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect for all locations
along/northwest of an Effingham to Marshall line through 8pm.
Storms will weaken as daytime instability wanes, so severe threat
further east/later into the evening is quite low. Will hang on to
slight chance PoPs east of I-55 through the overnight hours, with
dry conditions expected further west. The front will settle
southward to the I-70 corridor by Monday afternoon: however,
decreasing convergence along the boundary and weakening upper
support will prevent widespread storm development. Have therefore
only mentioned low chance PoPs across the SE KILX CWA Monday
afternoon. High temperatures will be slightly cooler than in
recent days...mainly in the middle to upper 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT Sun Jul 1 2018

Front will lift back northward on Tuesday, providing the focus for
scattered thunderstorms during peak heating. Will carry low chance
PoPs across much of the area accordingly. The boundary will
dissipate by Wednesday as the upper high re-establishes itself
across the region. Cannot rule out a stray thunderstorm Wednesday
afternoon, but think most locations will remain hot and dry with
temperatures climbing back into the lower 90s.

12z Jul 1 models all retrograde the upper high westward slightly
faster than previously forecast, allowing a weak cold front to
drop southward into Illinois late Thursday into Friday. Given good
agreement on the timing of the front, have introduced chance PoPs
along/north of I-72 Thursday afternoon...then south of I-72 on
Friday. Temperatures will remain hot in the lower 90s on
Thursday...then will drop back into the middle 80s by next weekend
as a cooler/less humid airmass arrives in the wake of the front.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 648 PM CDT Sun Jul 1 2018

Broken line of convection has pushed east of the I-55 corridor
early this evening...with 2330z/630pm radar imagery showing strong
storms approaching KDEC. Based on radar trends, have included a
TEMPO group for thunder at both KDEC and KCMI through 02z. Once
the line shifts further east, the threat for additional convection
at the central Illinois terminals will come to an end this
evening. Skies will partially clear: however, some models are
suggesting the potential for low cloud development along/east of
I-55 overnight. Will keep that out of the forecast for now,
pending support from additional model runs or real-time satellite
observations. Forecast soundings show considerable drying at all
levels after 12z, resulting in mostly clear skies throughout the
day on Monday. Winds will initially be S/SW in the vicinity of an
approaching cold front this evening, then will veer to W/NW toward
midnight and to NE by Monday morning.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for
ILZ029>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.

&&

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Barnes

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
330 PM CDT Sun Jul 1 2018

ILZ027-028-021100-
Knox-Stark-
330 PM CDT Sun Jul 1 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

There will be a slight chance for a thunderstorm late this
afternoon and evening. At this time, it appears the main severe
threat has shifted off to our east.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

The next best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be on
Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ILZ029>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066-021100-
Cass-Champaign-Christian-Clark-Coles-Cumberland-De Witt-Douglas-
Edgar-Effingham-Fulton-Logan-Macon-Marshall-Mason-McLean-Menard-
Morgan-Moultrie-Peoria-Piatt-Sangamon-Schuyler-Scott-Shelby-
Tazewell-Vermilion-Woodford-
330 PM CDT Sun Jul 1 2018

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois, east central Illinois, southeast Illinois and west
central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

Dangerous heat and humidity will continue through early this
evening with heat index values of 100 to 105, which are then
forecast to lower into the 70s overnight.

Scattered thunderstorms will track east across central and east
central Illinois through early this evening. Locally damaging
wind gusts around 60 mph may occur with the stronger thunderstorms.

Minor flooding will continue on the Illinois River from Havana
downstream.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible over
portions of central and east central Illinois from Tuesday
through Friday.

Minor flooding will continue on the Illinois River from Havana
downstream the next several days.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will continue over most of the area into early
this evening.

ILZ067-068-071>073-021100-
Clay-Crawford-Jasper-Lawrence-Richland-
330 PM CDT Sun Jul 1 2018

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast
Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

Dangerous heat and humidity will continue for the rest of this
afternoon with peak heat index values of around 105 degrees.
Heat index values will slowly lower into the 70s overnight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected across the area late this
afternoon and evening. Locally damaging wind gusts over 60 mph
and hail may occur with the stronger thunderstorms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible on a daily
basis from Monday through Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed over parts of southeast Illinois
between 4 and 9 p.m.

Smith

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
707 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2018

ILZ052-054-061-020100-
Christian-Moultrie-Shelby-
707 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CHRISTIAN...
SOUTHEASTERN MOULTRIE AND SOUTHERN SHELBY COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM
CDT...

At 707 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Tower Hill, or 10 miles southwest of Shelbyville, moving east at 30
mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Shelbyville, Pana, Windsor, Findlay, Tower Hill, Allenville,
Westervelt, Strasburg, Clarksburg, Gays, Oconee, Trowbridge, Wolf
Creek State Park and Eagle Creek State Park.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for
central and east central Illinois.

LAT...LON 3935 8914 3942 8912 3959 8848 3930 8847
      3925 8914
TIME...MOT...LOC 0007Z 252DEG 25KT 3933 8897

Bak

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