Special Weather Statement, NWS Lincoln, IL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
652 PM CDT Wed May 9 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT Wed May 9 2018

Convection has begun to form near the Illinois River Valley early
this afternoon, as earlier high-res models were suggesting. This
is occurring ahead of the cold front, which is pushing across
eastern Iowa and northeast Missouri. Clearing behind the earlier
showers/storms is allowing CAPE's to reach above 2,000 J/kg in
western Illinois as the cap erodes, while some convective
inhibition lingers over the east. The scattered storms will
continue to push east through the afternoon, and should be out of
the eastern CWA toward sunset. Latest SPC Day1 outlook maintains
the slight risk of severe weather east of I-55, primarily for a
wind threat and perhaps some hail.

Following the storms, quiet conditions expected into much of
Thursday. Little change in temperatures behind the front, with
highs on Thursday still in the low-mid 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT Wed May 9 2018

Tail end of the frontal boundary will begin arcing back northeast
later Thursday, as a storm system organizes near the
Kansas/Colorado border. Could see some convection develop along it
as early as late afternoon between Springfield and St. Louis, but
most of the PoP's from this will be included during the evening.
With time, more of the rain shield will become established in
areas north of the front, which should become nearly stationary
just south of I-80. By early weekend, a southward drift is
expected, as a shortwave crosses the mid Mississippi Valley. The
models are in reasonable agreement with this front dropping south
to about I-72 by Saturday afternoon. While they also agree in most
of the rain chances north of there into Saturday night, the
GFS is much slower in diminishing the rain on Sunday.

The strength of the upper high over the southeast U.S. should
keep the front in our general vicinity through Monday. With it
there, PoP's will remain in the forecast due to MCS potential
along the boundary. Beyond Monday, the European model
significantly builds the ridge and diminishes the rain trends,
while the GFS keeps the boundary around even longer. With this
discrepancy, pinning down specific dry periods in the extended
will be difficult.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 652 PM CDT Wed May 9 2018

A line of thunderstorms will affect KDEC-KCMI eastward the first
few hours after 00Z. Locally strong and gusty winds along with
isolated hail will be possible with the thunderstorms. Otherwise,
VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF forecast period. Winds
SW 15-20 kts with gusts to 30 kts ahead of the line of
thunderstorms, shifting to westerly and decreasing to 5-10 kts
behind the line.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...37

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
324 PM CDT Wed May 9 2018

ILZ027>031-036-037-040>042-047>051-101100-
Cass-Fulton-Knox-Logan-Marshall-Mason-Menard-Morgan-Peoria-
Sangamon-Schuyler-Scott-Stark-Tazewell-Woodford-
324 PM CDT Wed May 9 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

Additional thunderstorms this afternoon may be strong to severe,
especially east of the Illinois River Valley. Damaging wind gusts
and large hail are the primary threats. The thunderstorm threat
will push off to the east by early evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Limited spotter activation may be needed between 4 pm and 7 pm
today.

ILZ038-043>046-052>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-101100-
Champaign-Christian-Clark-Clay-Coles-Crawford-Cumberland-De Witt-
Douglas-Edgar-Effingham-Jasper-Lawrence-Macon-McLean-Moultrie-
Piatt-Richland-Shelby-Vermilion-
324 PM CDT Wed May 9 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois, east central Illinois and southeast Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

Additional thunderstorms are expected this evening, and some of
these may be strong to severe. Damaging wind gusts and large hail
are the primary threats. The thunderstorm threat will push off to
the east by early evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed between 5 pm and 9 pm today.

HJS

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
756 PM CDT WED MAY 9 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0749 PM     TSTM WND GST     WILLARD AIRPORT         40.04N 88.28W
05/09/2018  M63.00 MPH       CHAMPAIGN          IL   ASOS

&&

JRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
807 PM CDT WED MAY 9 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0751 PM     HAIL             1 SE CHAMPAIGN          40.10N 88.25W
05/09/2018  U0.75 INCH       CHAMPAIGN          IL   PUBLIC

&&

37

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
814 PM CDT WED MAY 9 2018

ILZ054>056-100200-
Douglas-Coles-Moultrie-
814 PM CDT WED MAY 9 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN COLES...EASTERN
MOULTRIE AND SOUTHWESTERN DOUGLAS COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM CDT...

At 813 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Sullivan, moving east at 45 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Sullivan, Arcola, Arthur, Lovington, Humboldt, Allenville, Cooks
Mill, Chesterville, Cadwell and Kirksville.

This includes Interstate 57 between mile markers 193 and 206.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Lincoln.

&&

LAT...LON 3953 8821 3953 8872 3973 8870 3973 8821
TIME...MOT...LOC 0113Z 272DEG 40KT 3963 8861

Geelhart

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
824 PM CDT WED MAY 9 2018

ILZ055-100200-
Douglas-
824 PM CDT WED MAY 9 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DOUGLAS COUNTY UNTIL 900 PM
CDT...

At 824 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Tuscola, moving east at 40 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Tuscola, Villa Grove, Atwood, Newman, Camargo, Bourbon, Murdock and
Garrett.

This includes Interstate 57 between mile markers 207 and 217.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Lincoln.

&&

LAT...LON 3979 8797 3972 8797 3973 8847 3987 8846
      3988 8794 3979 8794
TIME...MOT...LOC 0124Z 271DEG 35KT 3979 8835

Geelhart