Severe Thunderstorm Warning 85, NWS Lincoln, IL

972 
WWUS53 KILX 141941
SVSILX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
241 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2018

ILC057-141950-
/O.CAN.KILX.SV.W.0085.000000T0000Z-180614T2000Z/
Fulton-
241 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN FULTON COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning has been cancelled.  However gusty winds are
still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 4051 9045 4049 8995 4042 8995 4039 8999
      4037 9004 4033 9005 4031 9007 4029 9008
      4026 9011 4024 9012 4022 9016 4019 9020
      4019 9045
TIME...MOT...LOC 1938Z 278DEG 27KT 4033 9022 

$$

Smith

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
108 PM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1114 AM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018

Main short-term forecast concern today is the evolution/track of
an ongoing MCS currently across Iowa. Latest satellite/radar
mosaic shows the strongest convection within the complex dropping
southward through central Iowa...while the stratiform rain shield
slowly shifts eastward. No model has a good handle on this system,
with several CAMs showing it completely dissipating before
reaching the NW KILX CWA. Meanwhile, other models suggest it will
spill into the Illinois River Valley early this afternoon in a
weakening state...with additional scattered development further
south into east-central Missouri ahead of a slowly approaching
warm front. At this point, will continue to feature low chance
PoPs along/west of the Illinois River this afternoon as the system
tries to push eastward into the drier airmass in place across
Illinois. Will keep an eye on satellite trends across Missouri
over the next few hours to see if convection fires there as shown
by the HRW NSSL. If it does, may need to increase PoPs further
east toward I-55 for late this afternoon into the evening. Aside
from the rain chance across the far west, partly to mostly sunny
skies will prevail elsewhere around central and southeast Illinois
with high temperatures topping out in the middle 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018

Isolated very light showers/sprinkles were over northern CWA with
high cloud bases above 12k ft. Two developing small MCS's were
over central and nw IA with thunderstorms caused by an upper level
disturbance riding overtop of subtropical 500 mb ridge over the
central and southern plains. Isolated thunderstorms were also in
southeast IA and far northeast MO drifting ESE toward MS river
valley of west central IL early this morning. CAM models continue
to weaken isolated convection over northern/nw CWA during today as
they move into a drier/more stable airmass with dewpoints in the
mid 50s to lower 60s. Patchy fog early this morning is south of
CWA were more humid airmass is. Highs generally in the mid 80s
today with partly to mostly sunny skies and limited cumulus cloud
formation due to drier low levels of atmosphere.

Isolated to scattered convection to possibly affect central and
northern CWA along and north of I-70 overnight into Fri morning,
due to another short wave ridging overtop of upper level ridge and
tracking into central IL by 12Z/Fri. Highest pops are 50% over
northern CWA overnight. Lows overnight in the mid 60s eastern IL
and upper 60s western half of CWA with west central IL/MS river
valley near 70F.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018

A heat wave still expected over IL from Friday through at least
Monday as strong upper level ridge builds into IL with 591-592 dm
500 mb heights over CWA from Sat afternoon thru Monday morning.
Highs in the upper 80s/lower 90s on Friday and getting more humid
as dewpoints rise into the lower 70s by Friday afternoon, giving
afternoon heat indices peaking at 95-100F, warmest from Lincoln
west.

Hot and humid conditions build over this fathers day weekend with
highs mostly in the mid 90s and afternoon heat indices peaking
from 100-106F. This will be approaching heat advisory criteria of
105F, especially from Lincoln sw. Continued a dry forecast this
weekend due to strong upper level ridge, but can not rule out a
stray/isolated thunderstorm during peak heating, but 10% or less
chance.

Another hot and humid day Monday with highs of 90-95F and
afternoon heat indices peaking from 99-104F. Isolated
thunderstorms possible during mid/late Monday afternoon into
Monday evening along and west of I-55 due to a weak ripple/short
wave moving over top of upper level ridge. ECMWF and GEM model
continues to keep our area dry on Monday while GFS appears too wet
Monday afternoon north of I-70. Have isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms possible from Tue afternoon thru Wed with best
chances during the afternoon hours. A weak tropical system moving
over western Gulf of Mexico on Sunday is bringing some moisture
into part of area Tue/Wed to support this convection chance. Highs
Tue 85-90 and in the mid to upper 80s Wed and staying humid.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 107 PM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018

Convective complex that developed across northern Iowa last night
has begun to accelerate southeastward early this afternoon...with
latest radar imagery showing it about to cross the Mississippi
River into west-central Illinois. Models continue to struggle with
this system, with some solutions suggesting it will largely
dissipate as it enters the western KILX CWA over the next few
hours. Based on radar trends, have added predominant rain showers
with VCTS at both KPIA and KSPI after 20/21z. Think the system
will indeed eventually lose steam as it pushes further eastward
into the more unfavorable environment across Illinois. Once this
system dissipates late this afternoon/early this evening...a
period of dry weather will be on tap until later tonight when
scattered thunderstorms develop along an advancing warm front.
Given uncertainties concerning exact areal coverage of convection,
have only included VCTS at the TAF sites after the 08-10z time
frame.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Barnes

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1150 AM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018

ILZ027>031-036-037-151700-
Fulton-Knox-Marshall-Peoria-Stark-Tazewell-Woodford-
1150 AM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

An isolated thunderstorm is possible this afternoon, with
additional chances after midnight tonight. Any storms will not be
severe.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Thunderstorm chances linger into Friday, but these are also not
expected to be severe.

Summerlike heat and humidity will return by the weekend, with
afternoon heat indices peaking over 100 degrees from Saturday
through Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight.

ILZ038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-151700-
Cass-Champaign-Christian-Clark-Clay-Coles-Crawford-Cumberland-
De Witt-Douglas-Edgar-Effingham-Jasper-Lawrence-Logan-Macon-Mason-
McLean-Menard-Morgan-Moultrie-Piatt-Richland-Sangamon-Schuyler-
Scott-Shelby-Vermilion-
1150 AM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois, east central Illinois, southeast Illinois and west
central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

There will be a chance for thunderstorms after midnight tonight.
Any storms will not be severe.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Thunderstorm chances linger into Friday, but these are also not
expected to be severe.

Summerlike heat and humidity will return by the weekend, with
afternoon heat indices peaking over 100 degrees from Saturday
through Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight.

Shimon

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
142 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2018

ILZ040-041-047-141930-
Mason-Schuyler-Cass-
142 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SCHUYLER COUNTY UNTIL 230 PM
CDT...

At 142 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Augusta, or 12 miles southeast of Carthage, moving east at 45 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Rushville, Littleton, Browning, Frederick, Huntsville, Camden,
Ripley, Weinberg King State Park and Ray.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4027 9045 4019 9045 4019 9027 4017 9024
      4010 9036 3999 9049 3998 9060 4002 9062
      4003 9061 4002 9063 4004 9067 4008 9067
      4011 9071 4011 9091 4028 9091
TIME...MOT...LOC 1842Z 285DEG 39KT 4028 9097

Smith

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
159 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2018

ILZ027-029-036-040-041-141945-
Peoria-Knox-Mason-Schuyler-Fulton-
159 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FULTON COUNTY UNTIL 245 PM CDT...

At 158 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Bardolph, or 7 miles northeast of Macomb, moving east at 25 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Canton, Havana, Lewistown, Farmington, Cuba, Avon, Vermont, St.
David, Fairview, Ipava, London Mills, Table Grove, Dunfermline,
Bernadotte, Smithfield, Bryant, Norris, St. Augustine, Marietta and
Ellisville.

LAT...LON 4028 9045 4072 9044 4071 8996 4023 9009
      4028 9051
TIME...MOT...LOC 1858Z 290DEG 21KT 4053 9056

Smith