River Flood Warning 29, NWS Lincoln, IL

974 
WGUS43 KILX 231438
FLWILX


Flood Warning
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
938 AM CDT Sat Jun 23 2018

...Observed flooding changed from Minor to Nonflood severity for the 
following river in Illinois...
...Forecast flooding changed from Minor to Minor severity for the 
following river in Illinois...
  Sangamon River at Monticello affecting Piatt County


The following forecasts are based on observed precipitation, soil 
moisture conditions, and forecast precipitation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Persons with interests along this river need to prepare for flooding.
Stay tuned for further updates on this flooding situation.

&&

ILC147-240437-
/O.EXT.KILX.FL.W.0029.180624T0300Z-180625T0000Z/
/MNTI2.1.ER.180624T0300Z.180624T0600Z.180624T1800Z.NO/
938 AM CDT Sat Jun 23 2018

The Flood Warning continues for 
  The Sangamon River at Monticello.

* From this evening until Sunday evening.
* At  830 AM Saturday the stage was 12.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by tonight and continue to rise 
  to near 13.1 feet by early tomorrow morning.The river will fall 
  below flood stage by tomorrow afternoon.
* Impact...At 13.0 feet...Flooding of agricultural areas begins.

&&


                  Fld  Observed         Forecast 6AM
Location          Stg  Stg  Day Time    Sun    Mon    Tue

Sangamon River
 Monticello        13  12.5 Sat 8 AM    13.1   12.6   11.5


&&

LAT...LON 4019 8847 4008 8847 4001 8854 3990 8874
      4000 8874 4006 8861             

$$

jrp

390 
WGUS83 KILX 240138
FLSILX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
838 PM CDT Sat Jun 23 2018

...The Flood Warning continues for the following river in Illinois...

  Sangamon River at Monticello affecting Piatt County

The following forecasts are based on observed precipitation, soil 
moisture conditions, and forecast precipitation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you encounter a flooded roadway, turn around and find an alternate
route. Turn around, don't drown.

Additional river and weather information is available at 
www.weather.gov/ilx.

&&

ILC147-241537-
/O.EXT.KILX.FL.W.0029.180624T0600Z-180625T0000Z/
/MNTI2.1.ER.180624T0600Z.180624T0600Z.180624T1800Z.NO/
838 PM CDT Sat Jun 23 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Sangamon River at Monticello. 
* From late tonight until Sunday evening.
* At 730 PM Saturday the stage was 12.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to near flood stage early 
  tomorrow morning.
* Impact...At 13.0 feet...Flooding of agricultural areas begins.

&&


                  Fld  Observed         Forecast 6 AM
Location          Stg  Stg  Day Time    Sun    Mon    Tue

Sangamon River
 Monticello        13  12.9 Sat 7 PM    13.0   12.5   11.4


&&

LAT...LON 4019 8847 4008 8847 4001 8854 3990 8874
      4000 8874 4006 8861             

$$

EJL

106 
WGUS83 KILX 241336
FLSILX


Flood Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
836 AM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018

...The Flood Warning continues for the following river in Illinois...

  Sangamon River at Monticello affecting Piatt County

The following forecasts are based on observed precipitation, soil 
moisture conditions, and forecast precipitation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you encounter a flooded roadway, turn around and find an alternate
route. Turn around, don't drown.

Additional river and weather information is available at 
www.weather.gov/ilx.

&&

ILC147-250336-
/O.EXT.KILX.FL.W.0029.000000T0000Z-180625T1800Z/
/MNTI2.1.ER.180624T0315Z.180624T1800Z.180625T1200Z.NO/
836 AM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Sangamon River at Monticello. 
* Until Monday afternoon.
* At  730 AM Sunday the stage was 13.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Impact...At 13.0 feet...Flooding of agricultural areas begins.

&&


                  Fld  Observed         Forecast 6AM
Location          Stg  Stg  Day Time    Mon    Tue    Wed

Sangamon River
 Monticello        13  13.1 Sun 7 AM    13.0   12.3   11.3


&&

LAT...LON 4019 8847 4008 8847 4001 8854 3990 8874
      4000 8874 4006 8861             

$$

jrp

588 
WGUS83 KILX 250124
FLSILX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
824 PM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following river in 
Illinois...

  Sangamon River at Monticello affecting Piatt County

The following forecasts are based on observed precipitation, soil 
moisture conditions, and forecast precipitation. River levels are 
expected to continue falling.

Since flooding has subsided, this will be the last statement for this
flooding event.

ILC147-250154-
/O.CAN.KILX.FL.W.0029.000000T0000Z-180625T1800Z/
/MNTI2.1.ER.180624T0315Z.180624T1430Z.180624T2200Z.NO/
824 PM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Sangamon River at Monticello.
* At 730 PM Sunday the stage was 12.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Fell below flood stage at  500 PM Sunday.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to 11.2 feet by Tuesday 
  morning.


&&


                  Fld  Observed         Forecast 6 AM
Location          Stg  Stg  Day Time    Mon    Tue    Wed

Sangamon River
 Monticello        13  12.9 Sun 7 PM    12.5   11.2   10.4


&&

LAT...LON 4019 8847 4008 8847 4001 8854 3990 8874
      4000 8874 4006 8861             

$$

EJL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
545 PM CDT Fri Jun 22 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT Fri Jun 22 2018

Unseasonably deep upper low continues to pivot into the Ohio River
Valley...with 20z/2pm water vapor imagery showing the center of
the low over west-central Indiana. Several bands of convection
developed on the N/NW periphery of the system today, with some of
the cells producing brief funnel clouds from time to time. Latest
radar imagery indicates the primary convective band that developed
just east of the I-55 corridor around midday has largely
dissipated...while a second band has developed further east from
Danville S/SW to Effingham. Based on radar trends and the latest
HRRR, have continued high chance to likely PoPs along/east of I-57
through early evening. Further west, have gone with a dry
forecast west of I-55 through the night. As the low lifts slowly
northeastward, showers will linger across the far E/NE through
the overnight hours before finally exiting the area by early
Saturday morning. Despite the low tracking into the eastern Great
Lakes, a trailing trough axis/wind shift line may provide just
enough convergence to trigger isolated showers/thunder across the
far NE during the afternoon. Have included slight chance PoPs for
portions of Vermilion and Champaign counties accordingly...but
these may need to be pulled further westward if future CAMs
continue to show isolated convection along the boundary. Low
temperatures tonight will be in the lower to middle 60s, while
highs on Saturday remain on the cool side for this time of year in
the middle to upper 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT Fri Jun 22 2018

Additional showers and thunderstorms will develop along the
primary baroclinic zone from southern Missouri into western
Kentucky Saturday night and Sunday: however, this activity will
remain well south of central Illinois. End result will be a mostly
sunny and seasonably warm day on Sunday with high temperatures
topping out in the middle 80s.

Next system of interest is currently evident on water vapor
imagery along the coast of British Columbia. As this wave tracks
southeastward, it will amplify into a closed low...then slowly
meander E/SE across the Midwest early next week. As it approaches
from the northwest, it will lift the stalled frontal boundary back
northward into Illinois. Exact timing of this process remains
uncertain, with the 12z June 22 GFS being aggressive with bringing
the boundary and its associated precip chances into parts of the
CWA as early as Sunday night. Think this may be a bit too fast
given the amplifying nature of the upper wave, so prefer the
slower ECMWF which keeps central Illinois dry until Monday. Have
therefore limited PoPs late Monday night to just slight chance
across the S/SW...then have brought better rain chances into the
western half of the area on Monday as the warm front arrives.
Once the front passes, a warmer/more humid airmass will return
Monday afternoon...with dewpoints climbing back into the lower
70s. The upper low will then slowly track eastward, eventually
pushing a weak cold front into Illinois late Tuesday. As a result,
it appears the best rain chances in the extended will materialize
late Monday night through Tuesday night.

After that, the front will pass to the east and upper heights will
begin to rise for the middle and end of next week. Models still
disagree on how strongly the ridge will build into the
Midwest...with the GFS featuring a flatter more zonal flow and the
ECMWF/GEM favoring a much stronger ridge. Given the continued
discrepancies, have made few changes to the forecast beyond
Tuesday. Whichever solution verifies, it appears likely that hot
summer weather will return to central Illinois by the end of next
week. Current forecast features highs reaching the lower 90s
Wednesday through Friday...but these may need to be raised even
further if the ECMWF/GEM continue to feature a strong ridge.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 542 PM CDT Fri Jun 22 2018

IFR/MVFR cigs expected once again tonight across the forecast
area as low pressure slowly drifts away from the area. Copious
amounts of moisture in the low levels of the atmosphere combined
with relatively light winds will lead to only a slow erosion of
the lower clouds by Saturday afternoon where we may see some
low VFR cigs after about 20z, especially at PIA and SPI. Winds
will be light north to northwest tonight and a light west to
northwest wind is expected with speeds through the forecast
period of 10 kts or less.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Smith

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
333 PM CDT Fri Jun 22 2018

ILZ027-028-230845-
Knox-Stark-
333 PM CDT Fri Jun 22 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Thunderstorms are expected to return to west central Illinois
Monday night into Tuesday. Some of the storms may be strong, along
with areas of heavy rain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight.

ILZ029>031-036-037-040-041-047-049-050-230845-
Cass-Fulton-Marshall-Mason-Morgan-Peoria-Schuyler-Scott-Tazewell-
Woodford-
333 PM CDT Fri Jun 22 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Levels on the Illinois River are expected to rise above flood
stage Monday from Peoria to Havana, and by late Tuesday at
Beardstown.

Thunderstorms are expected to return to central Illinois Monday
night and Tuesday. Some of the storms may be strong, along with
areas of heavy rain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight.

ILZ038-042>046-048-051>057-061>063-230845-
Champaign-Christian-Clark-Coles-Cumberland-De Witt-Douglas-Edgar-
Logan-Macon-McLean-Menard-Moultrie-Piatt-Sangamon-Shelby-
Vermilion-
333 PM CDT Fri Jun 22 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois and east central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

Scattered thunderstorms, some with brief heavy rain, will continue
to move east and diminish during the evening. Severe weather is
not expected with these storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Thunderstorms are expected to return to central Illinois Tuesday
into Wednesday morning. Some of the storms may be strong, along
with areas of heavy rain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight.

ILZ066>068-071>073-230845-
Clay-Crawford-Effingham-Jasper-Lawrence-Richland-
333 PM CDT Fri Jun 22 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast
Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

Scattered thunderstorms, some with brief heavy rain, will
continue to move east and diminish during the evening. Severe
weather is not expected with these storms.

In addition, the Little Wabash River is expected to rise above
flood stage by later today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Scattered thunderstorms can be expected in southeast Illinois
Sunday. More widespread thunderstorms, some possibly strong with
periods of heavy rain, are anticipated later Tuesday and through
Wednesday. Minor flooding on the Little Wabash River is expected
to continue into early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight.

Goetsch

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
741 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     HEAVY RAIN       4 ESE CHAMPAIGN         40.09N 88.19W
06/22/2018  M1.05 INCH       CHAMPAIGN          IL   COCORAHS

            MEASURED 1.05 INCHES OF RAIN THE PAST 40 MINUTES

0445 PM     HEAVY RAIN       MOUNT PULASKI           40.01N 89.28W
06/22/2018  M1.34 INCH       LOGAN              IL   CO-OP OBSERVER

            TOTAL SINCE 0600 THIS MORNING.

0700 PM     HEAVY RAIN       DECATUR AIRPORT         39.83N 88.87W
06/22/2018  M1.17 INCH       MACON              IL   ASOS

            24-HOUR TOTAL

&&

EJL