Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
403 PM EDT Tue Aug 7 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Multiple disturbances will work through the region through
tomorrow allowing for showers and thunderstorms across the
region. Mostly dry conditions are expected on Thursday, however
an upper level low will keep off and on precipitation chances
in place for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Thunderstorms will be slower to develop across northwestern
portions of the forecast area where there has been more cloud
cover from the MCV. Across southern and up into central
portions of the region where there were more breaks in the
clouds thunderstorms have developed. Dcape values are not overly
high, however still expect the potential for some damaging
winds. In addition, there are high precipitable water values and
given storm trajectory there will be the potential for heavy
rainfall and also a flash flood potential.

Activity will decrease late in the evening tonight, however this
break or decrease will be short lived as an upper level
disturbance approaches late in the overnight hours. This will
allow for an area of showers and thunderstorms to develop and
move into the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing at the start of the
short term. There will then be a decrease in precipitation
after the initial disturbance moves through. Another weaker
disturbance will move through later in the day keeping at least
some thunderstorms in the forecast. Precipitation will
gradually taper off overnight. Went close to guidance for
temperatures through the short term.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As we head into the latter part of the work week, the upper level
pattern will show a persistent ridge over the western CONUS, with
mid level troughing continuing across eastern Canada and extending
into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region. On Thursday, a weak
boundary will be near our southern CWFA. This may keep a small
shower/storm threat across our south, otherwise, most of the region
will be dry. As we head into Friday, a weak frontal boundary will
begin to drop south into the Great Lakes, bringing a chance of
showers/storms to the entire region.

For the weekend and into early next week, the upper level ridge out
west is forecast to amplify as it pokes northeast into south central
Canada. The subsequent downstream result will be a developing closed
low across the Great Lakes. This will keep the chance of
showers/storms going, with the best chance tied too the diurnal
cycle, i.e., mid afternoon into early evening.

The upper closed low may get a kicker from the west to nudge it east
as we head into Tuesday, if this occurs, a brief period of s/wv
ridging should develop in the wake of the departing upper level low
on Tuesday, providing a return to dry weather.

As for temperatures, highs in the lower to mid 80s will be common
into the end of the week, followed by more upper 70s to lower 80s
for the weekend into Monday. A slight rebound should occur by
Tuesday. Lows will be mainly in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Remnant of an MCV is situated just west of KDAY. Cu have started
to develop to the south and east of this feature. Expect
thunderstorms to develop through the afternoon and into the
early evening hours. Visibilities and cigs will be reduced at
times with this activity. Precipitation will taper off to
showers before dissipating later this evening.

An upper level disturbance will bring an area of showers and
thunderstorms to the region late in the overnight hours and into
the morning daytime hours on Wednesday. MVFR and possibly IFR
cigs will accompany this precipitation as well. MVFR cigs will
linger into the day on Wednesday.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible into Wednesday afternoon and
then again Friday and Saturday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Novak
NEAR TERM...Novak
SHORT TERM...Novak
LONG TERM...Hickman
AVIATION...Novak

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
436 AM EDT Tue Aug 7 2018

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-081000-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-
Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-
Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-
Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-
Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway-
Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-
Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
436 AM EDT Tue Aug 7 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Northeast Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, Central
Ohio, South Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms are likely this afternoon and evening. A
few strong to severe storms will be possible, with damaging wind and
locally heavy rainfall being the primary threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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