Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
337 PM EDT Tue May 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast
into this evening when a cold front pushes south through the
area. High pressure will build in for Wednesday and remain in
control of the weather through Friday offering dry conditions and
continued warm temperatures. A chance of showers and storms will
return over the upcoming weekend as moisture increases ahead of
the next frontal system.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Severe thunderstorm watch 115 is currently in effect for eastern
Indiana and central Ohio.

A surface cold front is currently located across northwestern
Ohio this afternoon with storms along and ahead of the front. An
upper level shortwave is also currently pulling east across
Michigan this afternoon which will aid in thunderstorm
development. Surface convergence along the front is weak and
likely the reason why storms haven't filled in along the entire
front. Mid-level lapse rates across central Ohio are modest and
MLCAPE values are around 1500 J/kg. Sfc delta theta-e values are
still around -25 which would support damaging winds. The surface
cold front will then exit our central zones this evening.
Surface high pressure will then build into the area Wednesday
morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
During the day Wednesday surface high pressure will build in
from the north with 850 MB temperatures around 12 degrees C.
1000 MB/ 850 MB thicknesses are around 1400 M which would
support high temperatures around 80 degrees (slightly warmer
southwest and cooler north).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Strong surface high pressure system will be centered over Lakes
Erie/Huron and provide another dry day for the Ohio Valley with
easterly flow. The axis of the high will remain over Ohio as the
system moves east and away from the region overnight, with return
flow setting up on Friday. This return flow will necessitate some
low chance probabilities of showers and/or an isolated thunderstorm
on Friday underneath a broad H5 ridge. This should be driven by
daytime heating but the influx of moisture in the low levels would
have any storms that develop during the day linger into the evening
and possibly the overnight hours for both Friday and Saturday.
Saturday will see a better chance of these storms as the H5 ridge
breaks down and a weakening shortwave hangs up and stretches out as
it moves into the region from the northwest.

Upper level flow then becomes dominated by a strong low over the
Gulf states that pushes the flow over the Ohio Valley from east to
west for the bulk of next week. Showers and thunderstorms cannot be
ruled out entirely for any period, but the threat for
organized severe weather in this pattern seems minimal.

Temperatures were adjusted towards the latest guidance, but this did
not change more than a degree or two in any day or nighttime period
than what was already in the forecast. Temperatures are forecast to
stay above normal through the period. Highs in the low to mid 80s
Thursday through Sunday may slip to around 80 Monday and Tuesday
under thicker clouds and a higher potential for rain. Lows in the
middle 60s will prevail, with some variation of northern counties
dropping to the lower 60s at times and southern CWA lingering in the
upper 60s given an expected higher moisture profile.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Showers and thunderstorms are currently approaching from the
northwest along with a surface cold front. Out ahead of the
front there is enough instability that scattered showers and
thunderstorms will pop up with temporary restrictions in
visibility possible. Just along and ahead of the cold front some
storms will have the potential to become strong to severe (esp.
towards KDAY, KCMH, and KLCK). Strong to damaging winds will be
possible with restrictions in visibilities. As the storms head
east a more cellular nature will be likely with coverage of
storms quickly decreasing towards KCVG and KLUK.

Behind the cold front winds will turn from the west and the
threat for showers and thunderstorms will exit. The main concern
behind the front will be the development of fog and low stratus.
Towards KCMH, KLCK, and KDAY enough cold air advection will be
in place that a stratus deck will be possible. SREF probs and
NAM soundings are showing a fairly strong signal for at least
MVFR cigs. Given the setup of an exiting front and CAA have gone
ahead and brought ceilings down to IFR for the northern TAF
sites. Towards KCVG and KLUK winds quickly go light behind the
front and skies clear. This will make fog likely.

As the sun comes up Wednesday any restrictions in visibility
will quickly recover to VFR as drier air dives south.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Haines
NEAR TERM...Haines
SHORT TERM...Haines
LONG TERM...Franks
AVIATION...Haines

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
313 PM EDT Tue May 22 2018

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-231915-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-
Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-
Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-
Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-
Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway-
Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-
Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
313 PM EDT Tue May 22 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Northeast Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, Central
Ohio, South Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Additional showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon
into this evening. A few of the storms could produce strong to
damaging wind gusts and large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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