Severe Thunderstorm Warning 80, NWS Wilmington, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
200 PM EDT Fri Jun 8 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A surface boundary will be stalled across the region into the
weekend. Weak disturbances will combine with the increased
humidity and could trigger some thunderstorms at any time. Warm
and humid conditions will continue through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A weak boundary remains located across central Ohio this morning
with the 12z KILN soundings revealing PWATs of 1.39". The k
index is also around 37. The latest runs of the HRRR, ARW, and
NMM continue to show convection across the area this afternoon.
This makes sense given the boundary, abundant moisture, and
afternoon destabilization. Have gone ahead and kept the likely
PoPs given the above. New zones already out.

Prev Discussion->
A weak surface boundary has worked into the nw portion of the
area. The boundary will continue to sag down into the area
during the day, setting up around the I-70 corridor. Meanwhile,
in the nw flow aloft, a series of vort maxes will slip across
the area today. The combination of the features will kick off
scattered showers and thunderstorms and the atmosphere
destabilizes during the day. It is looking like the best
coverage will be around the Whitewater Valley and into the
Miami Valley. Models are showing slightly drier air in nrn KY,
so have slightly lower chances there.

High temperatures today will range from the upper 80s in the
south to the lower 80s in the far north.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The front will remain across the region tonight, but convection
will gradually decrease tonight with the loss of daytime
heating. Lows will only drop into the mid 60s. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms will be possible again on Saturday,
with the peak during the afternoon. Highs will be similar to
today, with highs ranging from the lower 80s in the north to the
upper 80s in the south.

By Sunday, the front is forecast to have sagged a little farther
south, into southern Ohio. Put the highest PoPs in the southern
half of the fa, but can't rule out something popping in the
northern counties. Temperatures will be slightly cooler, with
temperatures ranging from the upper 70s to mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Heat and moisture return for Monday afternoon into Tuesday
night and then drying out for end of week. Trend is for
boundary to push south by Monday and thus have lowered pops
from previous forecast but left a small chance in for some
continuity and possible isolated nature based on model trends.
Models indicating quick return of heat and humidity by Monday
and Tuesday. Again expecting some widely scattered convection
with this scenario. New guidance indicating front pushing
through Tuesday night into Wednesday with scattered convection
followed by a slight cool down and lower dewpoints similar to
the past couple of days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A frontal boundary remains stalled just north of Columbus to
Wapakoneta line with showers and thunderstorms forming along
the line. KLCK just gusted to 44 kts and with DCAPEs approaching
1000 J/kg think that the potential for gusty winds will
continue through the evening. The high res models are indicating
convection increasing in coverage through the afternoon along
the higher axis of moisture (near the boundary). This make sense
given the current placement of higher moisture, upper level
disturbance, and instability. Have gone ahead and introduced
tempo groups to account for this.

Later this evening convection will weaken as daytime heating is
lost, but the chance will continue though as a series of upper
level disturbances traverse the region.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible into Tuesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Haines/Sites
NEAR TERM...Haines/Sites
SHORT TERM...Sites
LONG TERM...Padgett
AVIATION...Haines

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
510 AM EDT Fri Jun 8 2018

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-090915-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-
Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-
Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-
Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-
Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway-
Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-
Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
510 AM EDT Fri Jun 8 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Northeast Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, Central
Ohio, South Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
Daytime heating will lead to widely scattered afternoon storms. A few
storms could produce large hail and damaging wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1126 AM EDT FRI JUN 8 2018

OHZ044-045-052-081600-
Champaign OH-Logan OH-Union OH-
1126 AM EDT FRI JUN 8 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN CHAMPAIGN...
SOUTHEASTERN LOGAN COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO AND SOUTHWESTERN
UNION COUNTIES IN CENTRAL OHIO UNTIL NOON EDT...

At 1126 AM EDT, radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near North
Lewisburg, moving southeast at 15 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 30 mph...
Pea size hail...

Locations impacted include...
North Lewisburg, Woodstock, Cable, Mingo, Pottersburg, Pickrelltown,
Kennard and Middleburg.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 4022 8375 4031 8369 4030 8349 4018 8347
      4012 8357
TIME...MOT...LOC 1526Z 296DEG 14KT 4024 8365

Haines

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
112 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0108 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NNE GROVE CITY        39.89N 83.07W
06/08/2018  M1.20 INCH       FRANKLIN           OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
113 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2018

OHZ055-064-065-081800-
Fairfield OH-Franklin OH-Pickaway OH-
113 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN FRANKLIN...
NORTHWESTERN FAIRFIELD AND PICKAWAY COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM EDT...

At 113 PM EDT, radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near Groveport,
moving southeast at 25 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 40 mph...
Very heavy rain...

Locations impacted include...
Columbus, Lancaster, Grove City, Pickerington, Circleville, Canal
Winchester, Groveport, Ashville, Baltimore, South Bloomfield,
Pleasantville, Logan Elm Village, Obetz, Commercial Point, Royalton,
Lithopolis, Fox, Amanda, Thurston and Stoutsville.

This includes I-71 in Ohio between mile markers 95 and 105.

Water will pond on roads and may quickly fill roadside ditches and
small streams.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 3957 8270 3957 8273 3953 8273 3947 8278
      3947 8284 3969 8325 3970 8325 3995 8301
      3983 8247
TIME...MOT...LOC 1713Z 303DEG 23KT 3981 8296

AR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
141 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0115 PM     TSTM WND GST     KLCK RICKENBACKER APT   39.81N 82.93W
06/08/2018  M51.00 MPH       FRANKLIN           OH   ASOS

&&

CH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
204 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2018

OHZ064-065-073-074-081845-
Fairfield OH-Ross OH-Hocking OH-Pickaway OH-
204 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN FAIRFIELD...
HOCKING...SOUTHEASTERN PICKAWAY AND NORTHEASTERN ROSS COUNTIES UNTIL
245 PM EDT...

At 204 PM EDT, radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 9 miles east of
Circleville, moving southeast at 35 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 50 mph...
Penny size hail...
Very heavy rain...

Locations impacted include...
Circleville, Logan, Kingston, Hocking Hills State Park, Logan Elm
Village, Amanda, Londonderry, Stoutsville, Laurelville, Sugar Grove,
Adelphi, Tarlton, East Ringgold, US Route 22 at State Route 159,
Ilesboro, Mooresville, Haydenville, South Bloomingville, Clearport
and Union Furnace.

Water will pond on roads and may quickly fill roadside ditches and
small streams.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 3939 8243 3939 8251 3937 8252 3937 8275
      3918 8277 3952 8308 3972 8280 3955 8220
TIME...MOT...LOC 1804Z 305DEG 30KT 3957 8276

AR

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