Severe Thunderstorm Warning 51, NWS Wilmington, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
753 PM EDT Mon May 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible across the region
until a cold front moves through Tuesday afternoon and evening.
High pressure will build in to bring dry conditions for mid to
late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Warm front extends from north of Lima south southeast across
the forecast area. It appears that much of this boundary will
wash out into the evening, but northern extent will persist.
There is some suggestion that a weak surface low may track
across northern Ohio which would temporarily bring the front a
bit further south into the forecast area. Better shear is
located across the northern areas as a jet streak moves away
from the region while instability maximum across the south is
working northward in the warm sector. Best combination of shear
and instability, in addition to the proximity to the stronger
part of the front, suggests highest potential for severe
weather is in west central Ohio.

Storms are developing across western Indiana and western
Kentucky and they will move into the area late this afternoon
and this evening. Cannot rule out some strong to damaging winds
with any of these storms as DCAPE has been increasing although
still somewhat marginal.

Storms will weaken later this evening with showers and scattered
storms continuing across the area through much of the night.
Temperatures will remain warm with guidance having a reasonable
handle on lows.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Showers and thunderstorms may start to redevelop along a pre-
frontal trough in the morning across southeastern counties.
Additional activity will develop through the day as a cold front
approaches. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur
until the front crosses the area in the afternoon and evening.
Cannot rule out some stronger updrafts that could be capable of
strong to damaging wind gusts. High pressure will start to build
in later Tuesday night with a drier air mass.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The long term will open up with rather pleasant weather as surface
high pressure centers over Michigan. The upper level trough axis
will be centered over eastern Canada with the best ageostrophic
convergence located from Michigan to central Ohio.

Wednesday afternoon 1000/850 MB thicknesses are forecast to be
around 1390 M which would support high temperatures only around 80
degrees. Wednesday night into Thursday the broad upper level low
that was over the western United States will open up and head east.
The wave will then impinge on the upper level trough axis pushing
the corresponding surface high pressure east as well. This means
high temperatures will start to recover Thursday (even though
temperatures will likely remain above normal through the long term)
into the lower 80s. 850 MB temperatures remain rather steady while
1000/850 MB thicknesses only slightly increase.

Friday a weak mid-level ridge will form over Tennessee with an upper
level low over the Gulf of Mexico. GFS forecast soundings at KCVG
even show a weak subsidence inversion from the mid-level ridge at
this time and with PWATs forecast to be around 1.25" Fridays highs
could again approach 10 degrees above normal for this time of year
(mid 80s with some upper 80s southwest).

Saturday into Sunday gulf moisture surges north with the cold front
now forecast to remain well north of the ILN forecast area. Even
with the front remaining well north of the area, above normal PWATs
and weak PVA from the upper level low will allow shower and
thunderstorm chances to return to the area Saturday and continue
through Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The main line of showers and storms extending from southeast
Indiana into west central Ohio has been making a very slow
eastward push over the last several hours. The airmass out ahead
of this is still unstable and we are seeing some isolated to
scattered showers and storms beginning to develop in those area.
As a result, will allow for a period of showers and
thunderstorms at all of the TAF sites through the rest of the
evening hours. As we begin to lose some of the diurnal
enhancement and some weak mid level energy pushes eastward, we
should see an overall weakening trend in the coverage and
intensity through the night, but will hang on to a VCSH through
a good part of the overnight hours to account for any lingering
activity. There are some indications that some MVFR cigs may
develop late tonight into Tuesday morning, especially at the
northern TAF sites. A cold front will push east across the area
through the day and this will lead to some additional scattered
shower and thunderstorm activity later Tuesday morning and into
the afternoon hours. Will cover this threat with a VCSH at this
point.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Haines
AVIATION...JGL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
408 PM EDT Mon May 21 2018

OHZ026-034-035-042>045-220915-
Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-Logan-Union OH-
408 PM EDT Mon May 21 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Central Ohio and West Central
Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms will move across the area late this afternoon and
evening. Some of these storms may be severe with damaging wind gusts
being the highest threat. An isolated tornado or large hail cannot be
ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required this afternoon and evening.

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ046-051>056-060>065-
070>074-077>082-088-220915-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-
Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-
Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-
Clark-Madison-Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-
Fayette OH-Pickaway-Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-
Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
408 PM EDT Mon May 21 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Northeast Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, Central
Ohio, South Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms will move across the area late this
afternoon into the evening. A few of these storms could produce
strong to damaging wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Additional showers and thunderstorms will occur Tuesday into Tuesday
evening. Some storms could produce strong to damaging wind gusts.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
718 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2018

INZ066-073-220000-
Franklin IN-Ripley IN-
718 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WESTERN FRANKLIN AND NORTHERN
RIPLEY COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM EDT...

At 718 PM EDT, radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near Osgood,
moving northeast at 30 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 40 mph...
Pea size hail...
Very heavy rain...

Locations impacted include...
Batesville, Osgood, Oldenburg, Lake Santee, Metamora, Laurel,
Napoleon, Millhousen, Huntersville, Hamburg, Ballstown, Penntown,
Interstate 74 at State Route 101, Peppertown, Otter Village and Saint
Peter.

This includes I-74 in Indiana between mile markers 145 and 157.

Water will pond on roads and may quickly fill roadside ditches and
small streams.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 3927 8530 3939 8530 3951 8518 3936 8496
      3930 8504 3931 8507 3928 8507 3909 8533
      3917 8544 3920 8544
TIME...MOT...LOC 2318Z 224DEG 26KT 3920 8534

Novak

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
725 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2018

OHZ042-043-051-060-061-220015-
Montgomery OH-Darke OH-Shelby OH-Preble OH-Miami OH-
725 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN SHELBY...
NORTHEASTERN PREBLE...SOUTHEASTERN DARKE...NORTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY
AND MIAMI COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM EDT...

At 724 PM EDT, radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near West
Milton, moving northeast at 15 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 40 mph...
Pea size hail...
Frequent cloud-to-ground lightning...
Very heavy rain...

Locations impacted include...
Troy, Piqua, West Milton, Covington, Arcanum, Bradford, Pleasant
Hill, Clayton, Phillipsburg, Verona, Laura, Fletcher, Pitsburg,
Potsdam, Casstown, Gordon, Ludlow Falls, Lockington, Ithaca and Union
Corners.

This includes I-75 in Ohio between mile markers 71 and 86.

Do not stay in the open or seek shelter under trees when lightning
threatens. Move indoors when a thunderstorm approaches.

Water will pond on roads and may quickly fill roadside ditches and
small streams.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 4012 8403 4010 8403 3984 8449 3995 8461
      4028 8433
TIME...MOT...LOC 2324Z 224DEG 13KT 3998 8442

Novak

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
734 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2018

INZ050-OHZ042-051-060-061-220000-
Wayne IN-Montgomery OH-Darke OH-Preble OH-Miami OH-
734 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2018

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL WAYNE...
NORTHERN PREBLE...SOUTHERN DARKE...NORTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY AND
SOUTHWESTERN MIAMI COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM EDT...

At 734 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a line
extending from New Paris to near West Alexandria, moving northeast at
30 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 40 mph...
Very heavy rain...

Locations impacted include...
Richmond, Englewood, Greenville, Eaton, Arcanum, Lewisburg, New
Paris, West Alexandria, New Madison, Clayton, Union, Brookville,
Wayne Lakes, Phillipsburg, Eldorado, Verona, West Manchester,
Pitsburg, Potsdam and Gordon.

This includes the following Interstates...
 I-70 in Indiana between mile markers 152 and 155.
 I-70 in Ohio between mile markers 1 and 27.

Water will pond on roads and may quickly fill roadside ditches and
small streams.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 4009 8463 3988 8427 3970 8458 3988 8490
TIME...MOT...LOC 2334Z 228DEG 27KT 3988 8480 3978 8456

Novak

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
747 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2018

KYZ100-OHZ088-220030-
Lewis KY-Scioto OH-
747 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN LEWIS AND WESTERN
SCIOTO COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM EDT...

At 746 PM EDT, radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 8 miles west of
South Shore, moving northeast at 25 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 50 mph...
Pea size hail...
Very heavy rain...

Locations impacted include...
Portsmouth, Rosemount, Clarktown, Lucasville, Otway, Lombardsville,
Saint Paul, Firebrick, West Portsmouth, State Route 335 at State
Route 776, Turkey Creek Lake, Friendship, Mcdermott and Bear Creek.

Water will pond on roads and may quickly fill roadside ditches and
small streams.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 3870 8326 3895 8319 3895 8282 3873 8300
      3873 8303 3870 8303 3864 8308
TIME...MOT...LOC 2346Z 207DEG 21KT 3873 8312

Novak

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
749 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2018

OHZ045-046-220030-
Delaware OH-Union OH-
749 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN DELAWARE AND
NORTHERN UNION COUNTIES IN CENTRAL OHIO UNTIL 830 PM EDT...

At 749 PM EDT, radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near Richwood,
moving east at 40 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 50 mph...
One half inch diameter hail...
Frequent cloud-to-ground lightning...
Very heavy rain...

Locations impacted include...
Delaware, Richwood, Ashley, Radnor, Magnetic Springs, Raymond,
Delaware State Park, Byhalia, Broadway, Warrensburg, Pharisburg,
Somersville, Leonardsburg, Kilbourne and Essex.

This includes I-71 in Ohio near mile marker 134.

Do not stay in the open or seek shelter under trees when lightning
threatens. Move indoors when a thunderstorm approaches.

Water will pond on roads and may quickly fill roadside ditches and
small streams.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 4050 8325 4044 8325 4043 8302 4042 8302
      4041 8292 4036 8293 4036 8291 4031 8291
      4027 8351 4048 8352 4051 8340 4051 8326
TIME...MOT...LOC 2349Z 261DEG 34KT 4043 8342

Novak

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
753 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2018

OHZ054-055-063-064-220045-
Fayette OH-Madison OH-Franklin OH-Pickaway OH-
753 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN FRANKLIN...
NORTHEASTERN FAYETTE...NORTHWESTERN PICKAWAY AND SOUTHEASTERN MADISON
COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM EDT...

At 753 PM EDT, radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near
Bloomingburg, moving northeast at 20 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 50 mph...
Nickel size hail...
Very heavy rain...

Locations impacted include...
Mount Sterling, Fox, Harrisburg, Orient, Darbyville, Deer Creek Lake,
Madison Mills, Derby, Pancoastburg and Darbydale.

This includes I-71 in Ohio between mile markers 84 and 95.

Water will pond on roads and may quickly fill roadside ditches and
small streams.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 3955 8335 3967 8342 3987 8316 3964 8298
TIME...MOT...LOC 2353Z 240DEG 16KT 3965 8333

Novak