Severe Thunderstorm Warning 42, NWS Wilmington, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
312 PM EDT Tue May 15 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front pushing through an unstable airmass will provide
the focus for thunderstorm development tonight. The chance for
showers and thunderstorms will continue on Wednesday near
another boundary positioned close to the Ohio River. Unsettled
weather is forecast to linger into the weekend in a persistently
warm and unstable pattern, aided by a trough in the upper
atmosphere.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Convection has developed along a weak cold front extending
across Northwest Ohio from weak low pressure over Lake Erie.
Storms exhibiting a strengthening trend are being interrogated
on radar for possible statements and warnings, though rather
weak shear and moderate CAPE suggest pulse storms that may not
reach severe limits in most cases.

Thunderstorms initially affecting locations along and north of
I-70 will continue to develop into the early evening as the
boundary sags southeast, bringing precip chances to the entire
area. A weakening trend and diminishing coverage will be
observed by late evening with loss of daytime heating, and with
the boundary weakening as it progresses southeast. However,
thunderstorms will continue to be possible during the overnight
hours when another boundary to the south is forecast to lift to
the Ohio River. Lows will remain above normal, with 6 am
readings ranging from the upper 50s north up to the mid 60s
south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Boundary positioned near the Ohio River is forecast to sag very
slowly south during Wednesday and Wednesday night. This will
allow a chance of showers and thunderstorms to continue,
especially along and south of the river in a persistently
unstable airmass near the boundary. Locations to the north
should see less precip being farther from the bulk of moisture,
instability and forcing, and closer to drier air and subsidence
associated with high pressure over the Great Lakes. Weakly
sheared environment should prevent widespread strong storms.

Weak cold advection will cause temperatures to be closer to
normal, with highs reaching the upper 70s to around 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Weak upper trough will slowly lift up the Ohio Valley through the
end of the week. Surface reflection will pass south and east of the
forecast area. However, showers and possibly some diurnal
thunderstorms will occur with the greater chances closer to the
surface feature.

Northern stream short wave crossing the Great Lakes will quickly
follow this system. This will push a cold front across the area
Sunday into Sunday night, but this boundary will slow as it gets
near or just south of the Ohio River. Showers and thunderstorms will
be possible along and ahead of the boundary. High pressure passing
north of the area will bring some drying by Tuesday.

Near normal temperatures on Thursday and Friday will warm over the
weekend. Readings will drop back slightly after the cold frontal
passage early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
There will be VFR conditions to start the TAF period under a
humid and unstable airmass. However, thunderstorms may develop
near a southward moving boundary and move to TAF sites by this
evening. This may bring temporary MVFR visibilities to northern
TAF sites.

A lull in convection is expected during the overnight hours with
loss of daytime heating, though showers may linger in the
vicinity as the boundary lifts back north of the Ohio River
toward TAF sites. Later tonight, models indicate MVFR ceilings
forming in nearly saturated air, so kept them in the forecast.
Rather slow improvement to VFR is forecast for Thursday while
winds transition to northeast.

OUTLOOK...Chances for thunderstorms will exist at times through
Saturday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Coniglio
NEAR TERM...Coniglio
SHORT TERM...Coniglio
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Coniglio

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1217 PM EDT Tue May 15 2018

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-161630-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-
Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-
Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-
Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-
Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway-
Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-
Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
1217 PM EDT Tue May 15 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Northeast Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, Central
Ohio, South Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

A few thunderstorms may become strong to severe this afternoon and
this evening. Damaging winds and large hail would be the primary
severe weather threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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