Severe Thunderstorm Warning 146, NWS Wilmington, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
106 PM EDT Thu Sep 6 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front sagging south through the region will bring showers
and thunderstorms today. This front will stall out in the
Tennessee Valley on Friday offering a continued threat for
precipitation, especially across the south. A wave of low
pressure associated with the remnants of tropical storm Gordon
will interact with the front and track through the Great Lakes
Saturday night into Sunday. This system will offer an enhanced
chance for precipitation and heavy rain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Surface high pressure and a mid-level ridge off to the east of
the Ohio Valley have become elongated west-to-east, with heights
lowering over the northeastern quadrant of the CONUS with a
broad trough moving into New England. As this occurs, surface
high pressure is sliding southeast into the Great Lakes, with a
relatively dry air mass reaching as far south as the southern
Michigan border by this evening. A surface cold front is
pivoting into a WSW-to-ENE orientation to the south of this
high, with southerly flow to its south continuing to feed
warmth and moisture into the Ohio Valley. With this front as a
focus for convergence, chances for precipitation look pretty
decent for today. Atop an inversion, there is already some
elevated instability (theta-e suggests the 850mb front is
further north than the surface front) and a few showers and weak
convective cells have developed. Activity will become more
widespread as the day progresses, with a gradual propagation
from north to south. PoPs have been increased to likely (60
percent) for the entire CWA, based primarily on the overall
pattern -- decent forcing, good moisture, and uncapped
instability. It is interesting that recent HRRR runs have been
very sparse with convective development -- a solution that does
not make sense given the larger-scale factors for the forecast
today. The threat for hazardous weather is similar to the way it
has been -- weak shear resulting in poor storm organization, but
heavy rain as a definite threat with slow-moving cells. Wind
threats could be just a little bit less than yesterday given
that instability may be slightly lower, with temperatures
probably not quite able to reach the values set yesterday. On
that note, the max temp forecast for today was left unchanged,
with highs forecast to range from around 80 in the NW CWA to the
upper 80s in the SE CWA.

Previous discussion >
Mid level westerlies push south with an e-w oriented front over
the southern Great Lakes sagging slowly south through the Ohio
Valley today. Low level convergence along with blyr layer CAPES
around 1500 j/kg will result in a good chance for thunderstorms.
Have a period of likely pops along and just behind the front
where the low level forcing is enhanced. PW values around 1.8
inches along with slow storm motion will result in the potential
for heavy rain producing storms. Bulk shear is only 15 to 20 kts
so do not expect organized storms but stronger updrafts could
contain strong winds.

Temperatures will be cooler today due to clouds/pcpn with highs
ranging from near 80 northwest to the upper 80s southeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
The front will sag into the TN Valley tonight and stall out.
Evening storms will diminish with favorable forcing shifting
south and loss of daytime heating. Have continued slight chance
pops going into the overnight hours with the best pops across
the far south. Expect lows to range from the mid 60s north to
near 70 south.

Models showing and embedded vort in the westerly flow enhancing
pcpn chances Friday afternoon. Have pops increasing to high
chance across the south during the afternoon. Due to limited
instby have only a slight chc of thunder. Expect highs to range
from the mid 70s northwest to the lower 80s southeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Remnants of Gordon to impact the region with heavy rainfall this
weekend. First round of showers ahead of the remnant low are likely
to develop Friday night to Saturday morning in a surge of moisture
and lift riding along the boundary that will be located over
Kentucky. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will increase in
coverage and intensity through Saturday night and into Sunday as the
low crosses Illinois and Indiana on its way to Ohio, placing the ILN
area in a zone of maximized convergence and lift in the warm
conveyor belt ahead of the low. Models have trended south with the
track of the low and this suggests heaviest rainfall will be roughly
along I-70 where perhaps 3 to 4 inches of rain may fall. Rainfall
rates will be enhanced by warm rain processes featuring high
freezing levels and warm cloud depth, and small drop size with 2
inches of PWAT to work with. Meteorological Model Ensemble River
Forecasts (MMEFS) show points along the Scioto and Great Miami
Rivers going into flood early next week.

Gusty winds will be observed Saturday night and Sunday as the
pressure gradient tightens when the low pushes into a surface high
that will be residing over Southern Canada.

Showers will show a decreasing trend later on Sunday through Monday
as the low tracks toward the Great Lakes and weakens. Expect only a
low chance of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday in
residual moisture associated with a boundary stalled to the
southeast.

Temperatures, while not being the main concern, will be cooler than
normal Saturday and Sunday under clouds and precip, with highs
ranging from the low 70s north up to the upper 70s south. A return
to normal highs around 80 should be evident by Wednesday due to less
extensive cloud cover and warmer air aloft.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Convection is currently ongoing and has already affected the
Dayton and Columbus TAF sites this morning and early afternoon.
These locations will continue to be in a favorable place for
storm development over the next several hours, so the TAFs will
include MVFR/TSRA conditions at KDAY and MVFR/SHRA conditions at
KCMH/KLCK. There is a chance that additional amendments for
TS and possibly IFR conditions could be needed this afternoon.
Storms will also be possible at the KCVG/KLUK sites later this
afternoon, but with less confidence in timing of the impacts to
the airports, so a VCTS will be used for now.

Most of the precipitation should dissipate going into the
overnight hours. MVFR ceilings are expected to develop during
the late overnight and early morning hours, with prevailing
ceilings likely to remain above 2000 feet. However, some patches
below 2000 feet will be possible. Showers will also begin to
develop, spreading from SW to NE during the morning hours. There
will be a slight chance of thunderstorms with this activity as
well, but for now the TAFs will carry prevailing VFR
visibilities (with MVFR ceilings).

On Friday afternoon, chances for storms will begin to increase
again, requiring a VCTS at KCVG (and likely at other TAF sites
once they are in the valid TAF period).

Prevailing winds through the period are generally expected to
remain out of the NE at 10 knots or less.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms will remain possible at times from
Friday afternoon through Monday. Prevailing MVFR ceilings are
also possible on Sunday and Monday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...Hatzos/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...Hatzos

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
459 AM EDT Thu Sep 6 2018

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-070900-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-
Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-
Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-
Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-
Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway-
Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-
Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
459 AM EDT Thu Sep 6 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Northeast Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, Central
Ohio, South Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
Scattered storms will develop today into this evening. Some of the
storms will contain very heavy rainfall with localized flooding
possible. A few of the stronger storms may produce strong wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.
As remnants of tropical storm Gordon move into the Ohio Valley, the
potential for heavy rain will exist this weekend. At this time the
best threat for heavy rain looks to be Saturday night and Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1204 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0707 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 SE BRIGHT             39.15N 84.79W
09/05/2018                   HAMILTON           OH   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            RANGERS REPORTED TWO LARGE DOWNED TREES ACROSS 2100 BLOCK
            OF LAWRENCEBURG RD. TIME ESTIMATED VIA RADAR.

&&

KK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1226 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2018

OHZ056-065-061700-
Licking OH-Fairfield OH-
1226 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL FAIRFIELD AND
SOUTHWESTERN LICKING COUNTIES UNTIL 100 PM EDT...

At 1226 PM EDT, radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over Beechwood
Trails, moving east at 25 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 45 mph...
Pea size hail...
Very heavy rain...

Locations impacted include...
Newark, Heath, Granville, Pataskala, Buckeye Lake, Hebron,
Millersport, Fairfield Beach, Beechwood Trails, Harbor Hills,
Granville South, Thornport, Etna, Jersey, Kirkersville, Alexandria,
State Route 310 at State Route 161, State Route 158 at State Route
204, Interstate 70 at State Route 37 and Interstate 70 at State Route
13.

This includes I-70 in Ohio between mile markers 116 and 134.

Water will pond on roads and may quickly fill roadside ditches and
small streams.

Residents in these areas should remain alert. If this storm becomes
stronger, then a warning may be needed.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 3992 8242 3993 8242 3993 8246 3989 8247
      3988 8247 3989 8273 4011 8272 4012 8238
      3992 8237
TIME...MOT...LOC 1626Z 271DEG 20KT 4001 8263

Hickman

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
105 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1255 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SW GRANVILLE          40.05N 82.53W
09/06/2018                   LICKING            OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN ON ROUTE 16.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
109 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2018

OHZ056-061745-
Licking OH-
109 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN LICKING COUNTY
UNTIL 145 PM EDT...

At 109 PM EDT, radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near Marne,
moving east at 25 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 45 mph...
Very heavy rain...

Locations impacted include...
Newark, Heath, Hanover, Marne, Gratiot, Toboso and Brownsville.

This includes I-70 in Ohio between mile markers 134 and 142, and near
mile marker 144.

Water will pond on roads and may quickly fill roadside ditches and
small streams.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 3996 8220 3995 8220 3995 8223 3991 8223
      3992 8239 4011 8239 4013 8219
TIME...MOT...LOC 1709Z 269DEG 23KT 4002 8230

Hickman