Severe Thunderstorm Warning 111, NWS Wilmington, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
340 PM EDT Mon Jul 2 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
The hot and humid weather pattern will continue through the
middle of the week. More intense heat is possible both
Wednesday and Thursday. A stalled out boundary will provide a
chance for daily afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms
through Thursday when a cold front brings relief on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Convection has developed on a boundary running in the I-71
corridor. Kept a slight chance in the Dayton area and to the nw,
in case an outflow boundary kicks something off. The
thunderstorms should start to die down with the loss of daytime
heating. So have likely PoPs in the southeast half early,
tapering off to 20 pops in the extreme northwest.

There could be some fog development after midnight with the
moisture atmosphere and light winds.

Lows once again will be in the lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
On Tuesday, the weak boundary in the north will be the
convective focus. Thunderstorm activity will start in middle of
the fa, but should shift north during the day. Went high chance
PoPs in the north and lower PoPs towards the Ohio River.

Temperatures will be slightly cooler on Tuesday, with highs in
the upper 80s to around 90. Heat index values close to 100
degrees may again be possible during the afternoon and early
evening hours.

Convection will wash out again Tuesday night, with another
night of lows in the lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Highest concern during the long term period will be the heat and
humidity for the 4th of July.  Went close to guidance for high
temperatures on Wednesday and decreased dewpoints slightly from the
blend.  The combination of heat and humidity will lead to the
potential for heat index values in excess of 105 across southern and
eastern portions of the forecast area for Wednesday.  These values
reach excessive heat criteria and therefore decided to go with an
excessive heat watch. Heat index values across northwestern portions
of the forecast area have the potential to be slightly lower around
100 due to to the possibility for more clouds and thunderstorms.
Cannot rule out some thunderstorm activity across southeastern
portions of the region, however the probability will be lower of
this occurring.

Heat and humidity will still be a concern on Thursday, however with
the potential for more thunderstorm activity expect heat index
values to be lower.  In general expect heat index values in the
upper 90s to around 100.  Cannot rule out a strong to severe storm
on Thursday and into Thursday night.

A cold front will move through Thursday night into Friday bringing
more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity in addition to
cooler temperatures.  Dry conditions are then expected for the
remainder of the weekend for Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Thunderstorms have developed along a boundary which is
coincident with I-71. Expect the convection to become more
widespread along and se of I-71 as the afternoon progresses. So
have a prevailing VCTS from CVG up to CMH, along with a tempo
MVFR thunder group from 18-22Z. It is a little more iffy if DAY
will see anything. After the convection gets going, outflow
boundaries could aid in development farther to the nw, so have
a VCTS for DAY.

Convection should start to die down around 00Z. Surface winds
will be light overnight. With an abundance of low level moisture
lingering after the convection, it is likely that we could see
some fog development. Took LUK down Io IFR with the weak
southeast flow, and MVFR fog for the other tafs other than DAY.

Convection should development again with the diurnal cycle.
Better chances will be for the northern tafs after 18Z.

OUTLOOK...Primarily afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be
possible Tuesday through Thursday. More widespread thunderstorms
are possible Friday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Excessive Heat Watch from Wednesday afternoon through
     Wednesday evening for OHZ055-063>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...Excessive Heat Watch from Wednesday afternoon through
     Wednesday evening for KYZ089>100.
IN...Excessive Heat Watch from Wednesday afternoon through
     Wednesday evening for INZ073>075-080.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KC/Sites
NEAR TERM...Sites
SHORT TERM...Sites
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Sites

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
350 PM EDT Mon Jul 2 2018

INZ050-058-059-066-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>054-056-060>062-032000-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-
Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-Licking-
Preble-Montgomery-Greene-
350 PM EDT Mon Jul 2 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Central Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Heat index values may reach around 100 degrees on Wednesday. Heat
index values in upper 90s to around 100 are possible Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

INZ073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ055-063>065-070>074-077>082-088-032000-
Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-
Campbell-Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-
Franklin OH-Fayette OH-Pickaway-Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-
Hocking-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
350 PM EDT Mon Jul 2 2018

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Southeast Indiana, Northeast
Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, Central Ohio, South Central Ohio and
Southwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Excessive Heat Watch.

Heat index values may reach around 100 degrees on Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
454 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2018

OHZ080>082-022130-
Pike OH-Highland OH-Adams OH-
454 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN ADAMS...WEST CENTRAL
PIKE AND SOUTHEASTERN HIGHLAND COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

At 454 PM EDT, radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over Seaman,
moving northeast at 30 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 40 mph...
Very heavy rain...

Locations impacted include...
Peebles, Winchester, Seaman, Belfast, Emerald, Sinking Spring, Poplar
Grove, May Hill, Smoky Corners, Serpent Mound and Locust Grove.

Water will pond on roads and may quickly fill roadside ditches and
small streams.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 3897 8368 3900 8368 3919 8338 3902 8323
      3901 8325 3901 8327 3900 8327 3884 8356
TIME...MOT...LOC 2054Z 234DEG 27KT 3896 8356

JDR

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