Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
307 PM EDT Fri Aug 10 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Bermuda high pressure anchored offshore and an area
of low pressure inland, will bring an increase in showers and
thunderstorms through the latter half of the weekend into
early next week. Rain chances begin to decrease by the middle of
next week, as low pressure moves north of the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 PM Friday...Cu building along northern border and
just north of local area this afternoon in best moisture and
lift just south of sfc front. Modified sounding showed ML CAPE
up around 2k and PW increasing to over 2 inches with DCAPE up
around 735 by late this aftn. Dry air and subsidence in the mid
levels has provided a bit of cap to our south as ridge extends
up through the Southeast. Sea breeze made a good run inland as
prevailing flow remained weak with an isolated shower or two,
but the main activity will remain just south of front over
northern tier of forecast area. HRRR did a decent job of
depicting the convection this aftn so far, weakening into this
evening as heating of the day cuts off.

Expect a quiet overnight for the most part as ridge gets nudged
farther south and east as deepening mid to upper trough makes
its way east toward the Carolinas. A few minor perturbations
will ride through the deepening W to SW flow over the Central
Carolinas and should see some convection flare as front moves
back north and west of the area as a warm front. This activity
should remain to the north of local forecast area for the most
part. Will keep minimal pops over Pender and Bladen counties
late tonight, but should see a lull through the morning before
convection begins to flare along sea breeze and then I-95
corridor Sat aftn as upper level dynamics enhance activity along
trough inland. Heating of the day and moistening of the
boundary layer on Saturday will add to the upper level dynamics,
increasing the potential for shwrs/tstms Sat aftn into the
evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Friday...An upper level trough begins to cut-off
over the Great Lakes around 00 UTC Sunday and drops over the
Ohio River Valley by Sunday night.

At the surface a cold front will shift across the Carolinas and
stall just to the west of i-95. This will align the best
moisture and instabilities over the eastern 2/3 of the forecast
area. The highest precipitable waters of 2.0" will be along the
coast and BL CAPE values will run from 1500 J/kg in the extreme
west of our area to 2500 J/kg at the coast. So can expect good
chances of thunderstorms Sunday with heavy rains possible.

Lows will be in the lower to middle 70s west of Interstate 95
and  middle 70s elsewhere except a few upper 70s along the
immediate beaches. Highs will be in the upper 80s to around 90
with the increased cloud and storm coverage.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 PM Friday...'Cooler and Wetter, Followed by Drier and
Hotter' may be one way to describe anticipated long range
weather. ECMWF/GFS solutions showing good H5 adhesion in
dropping an upper low SE across West Virginia Monday, then
northward into New England Wednesday. Sensible weather impacts
include, below normal Max-T numbers Mon/Tue due to high rain
chances, and above normal overnight lows due to cloudiness. The
'snap-back' upper ridge in wake of the departing upper system
will bring hotter and drier air Thu/Fri, and notably lower
daytime POP values.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 18Z...First CU of the day is right where the HRRR says the
first convection will fire. This will affect LBT and ILM, and some
of the storms could have gusty winds as the downdraft CAPE gradient
is right along our northeast counties. Most of the activity will be
over for diurnal reasons around 22Z. Light winds tonight with
possible MVFR fog inland.

Extended Outlook...MVFR/IFR from isolated to scattered SHRA
and TSRA, especially each afternoon and evening across all
sites through Saturday. Increasing chances for showers and
tstms on Sunday. Isolated convection Monday through Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 PM Friday...Gusty S-SW winds across the waters into
this evening will basically remain 10 to 15 kts or less through
this evening dropping to 10 kts or less overnight. Winds will
increase heading through Saturday as gradient tightens between a
front or trough inland and Atlantic high pressure off shore.
Seas will drop a bit through tonight as winds lighten and then
will increase through late Sat up near 3 to 4 ft as southerly
winds pick up.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Friday...A cold front will be moving toward the
coast on Saturday evening but will stall around 100 miles
inland. This in turn will see the southwest winds blowing around
15 knots through the entire period.

With the duration and fetch of the wind, the seas will increase
from  2 to 3 feet Saturday night to 3 to 4 feet on Sunday and a
few 5 footer are expected at 20 miles off the coast mainly
north of Little River Inlet after midnight Sunday.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 300 PM Friday...Anchoring of Bermuda High pressure this
period maintains a SW wind, generally between 10-20 kt, a few
higher gusts inshore during the afternoon heating inland. Just
about all of the wave energy will be tied to wind-seas, and
short-period waves, with very little long period wave energy
seen. TSTMS and showers to be numerous MON/TUE, with a drying
trend beginning WED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 300 PM Friday...The latest forecast has the tide gage
located on the lower Cape Fear River at downtown Wilmington
peaking around 5.8 ft MLLW at 947 pm EDT, which is this
evening's high tide. Shallow flooding commences at the 5.5 ft
MLLW height threshold and occurs within a window surrounding
high tide. For tonight's potential, flooding will be possible
between 830 pm EDT to 1100 pm EDT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-
     056.
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108-110.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...RH
LONG TERM...MJC/SRP
AVIATION...RGZ/DL
MARINE...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
328 PM EDT Fri Aug 10 2018

NCZ106-108-110-SCZ054-056-111930-
Coastal Pender-Coastal New Hanover-Coastal Brunswick-Coastal Horry-
Coastal Georgetown-
328 PM EDT Fri Aug 10 2018

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast North Carolina and
northeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement for jellyfish.

Heat index values near 100 degrees through late this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Heat index values will be near 100 degrees on Saturday.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Monday afternoon and
evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ107-111930-
Inland New Hanover-
328 PM EDT Fri Aug 10 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Heat index values near 100 degrees through late this afternoon.

Minor coastal flooding is possible along the lower Cape Fear River
at high tide this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Minor coastal flooding is possible along the lower Cape Fear River
at high tide the next few evenings.

Heat index values will be near 100 degrees on Saturday.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Monday afternoon and
evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ087-096-099-105-109-SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-055-058-059-111930-
Robeson-Bladen-Columbus-Inland Pender-Inland Brunswick-Marlboro-
Darlington-Dillon-Florence-Marion-Williamsburg-Inland Georgetown-
Central Horry-Northern Horry-
328 PM EDT Fri Aug 10 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast North Carolina and
northeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Heat index values around 100 degrees through late this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Heat index values will be near 100 degrees on Saturday.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Monday afternoon and
evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

AMZ250-252-254-256-111930-
Coastal waters from Surf City to Cape Fear NC out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Fear NC to Little River Inlet SC out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little River Inlet to Murrells Inlet SC out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Murrells Inlet to South Santee River SC out
20 nm-
328 PM EDT Fri Aug 10 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the adjacent Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
400 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2018

NCZ087-096-SCZ017-024-102100-
Robeson NC-Bladen NC-Marlboro SC-Dillon SC-
400 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2018

...Strong thunderstorms over Robeson County and thunderstorms
developing in Marlboro, Dillon, and Bladen Counties...

At 357 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Elrod, or 13 miles west of Lumberton, moving southeast at 15 mph.
This thunderstorm has produced wind gusts to 30 mph, frequently
lightning and very heavy rain.

Additional thunderstorms will continue to develop and move across
Marlboro, Dillon, Bladen, and Robeson counties. All of these storms
have the capability of increasing in intensity and producing strong
winds, frequent lightning, and very heavy rain.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3484 7890 3486 7850 3446 7818 3437 7834
      3448 7887 3425 7913 3430 7941 3424 7955
      3423 7955 3440 7972 3449 7973 3451 7983
      3461 7978 3480 7994 3480 7993 3481 7968
      3463 7946 3484 7935 3483 7919 3495 7903
TIME...MOT...LOC 1952Z 307DEG 13KT 3460 7924

HAWKINS