Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
914 AM EDT Fri Aug 3 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
The upper level pattern in control of the weather across the
region, will finally break down by late in the weekend and
continuing into next week. An upper level ridge will build
overhead during the weekend and into next week. Convection will
peak at the start of this period, then slowly diminish in both
coverage and strength. The deeper moisture will improve
somewhat but still remain above the "norm". Thus, the shallow or
minor flooding threat will continue today thru the upcoming
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 9 AM Friday...Active weather this morning as strong
convection is moving across the Cape Fear coastal counties. This
activity will exit the area over the next hour or two, but cloud
tops west of CHS have been cooling. Expect those showers and
thunderstorms to stream northward through the remainder of the
morning and into the afternoon, as flow through lowest 12k ft
is generally out of the south-southwest. Outside of this
mornings Cape Fear activity, the strongest convection and
highest rainfall rates through early afternoon are expected to
be associated with that activity west of CHS moving northward
across the Pee Dee, although by mid-afternoon, strong
convection due to afternoon heating and cell mergers/boundary
interaction may develop just about anywhere. At this time, we
don't plan on raising a Flood Watch, as we expect flooding
problems to be somewhat localized.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Thursday...Improving sensible weather conditions
will be in store for this period, albeit slow, but nevertheless
improving especially with respect to the lowering of the POPs
back to the "norm" for this time of the year. This the result of
changes to the mid and upper level pattern and features. The
upper trof across and along the Mississippi River Valley is
progged to weaken considerably as it's amplitude flatten's out.
This will cutoff the direct feed of Tropical moisture from the
Gulf of Mexico. PWs will only drop to around 2 inches by the
end of this period, enough to continue to mention heavy rain
accompanying the thunderstorms, This will keep the threat for
for possible shallow/minor flooding especially with water
level's remaining high. As for temps, stayed closer to the GFS
Mos Guidance which is running lower when compared to the other
avbl MOS Guidance ie. NAM and European MOS. Generally, temps
will run near normal for this time of the year.&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 300 PM Thursday...Mid level ridging will be overhead Sunday
and Monday with surface high only displaced slightly to its east.
Temperatures will be above normal by a few degrees and we will not
have the deep layer southerly flow in place as seen lately. Even so,
nothing really scours out the deep moisture either. Forecast
soundings show PW values remaining above 2 inches. Surface/mesoscale
processes should thus be adequate to yield two more days of fairly
widespread rainfall. The development of a piedmont trough could
favor storm development on a larger scale as well. And with slower
storm motion the chance for minor flooding looms with heavier cells.
This trough remains on Tuesday and Wednesday even as the upper ridge
breaks down and zonal flow overspreads the region. Forecast
soundings show only a negligible decrease in PW as this occurs. So
while temperatures may trend back towards climatology our pattern of
wetter-than-normal conditions will likely continue.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 300 PM Thursday...Mid level ridging will be overhead Sunday
and Monday with surface high only displaced slightly to its east.
Temperatures will be above normal by a few degrees and we will not
have the deep layer southerly flow in place as seen lately. Even so,
nothing really scours out the deep moisture either. Forecast
soundings show PW values remaining above 2 inches. Surface/mesoscale
processes should thus be adequate to yield two more days of fairly
widespread rainfall. The development of a piedmont trough could
favor storm development on a larger scale as well. And with slower
storm motion the chance for minor flooding looms with heavier cells.
This trough remains on Tuesday and Wednesday even as the upper ridge
breaks down and zonal flow overspreads the region. Forecast
soundings show only a negligible decrease in PW as this occurs. So
while temperatures may trend back towards climatology our pattern of
wetter-than-normal conditions will likely continue.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 12Z...Generally VFR. SHRA/TSRA will be likely this morning
at the coastal terminals, and mainly the inland terminals this
afternoon. Have indicated temporary MVFR conditions with the
convection, but brief IFR is certainly possible.

Extended Outlook...MVFR/IFR from scattered to numerous SHRA/TSRA
each afternoon and evening across all sites through the extended.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 9 AM Friday...No changes to forecast through tonight as
Bermuda high will remain in control. As a result, southerly flow
will persist, with winds and seas outside of thunderstorms
around 15 knots and 4 feet. Area buoy obs have shown some
stronger gusts associated with this mornings convection,
however, with JMPN7 briefly gusting to 35 knots.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 AM
Friday...Models indicate the "worse" winds and seas of this
forecast period will occur during Saturday. This followed by
improving conditions, for both winds and seas. The reason for
this? Sfc Atlantic ridging will extend SW across the local
waters by late Sat night, then westward across the local waters
and onshore reaching the Central and Western Carolinas by late
Sun. During this time line, the sfc pg will become more relaxed
as time progresses, even with the development of the Piedmont
trof, which will be weak to begin with. Wind speeds will peak in
the 10 to 15 kt range early in the fcst but dropping to 5 to 10
kt late in this period. Significant seas will peak at the start
of this period in the 2 to 4 ft range followed by a slow
subsiding trend. Slow, because the ESE ground swell at 8 to 10
second periods will dominate thruout this period. A slow
decreasing trend of showers and thunderstorms will occur during
this period.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 300 PM Thursday...Sunday brings fairly light winds as
high pressure sites off the coast but with a secondary center to
our west. Wind direction will remain predominantly southerly
and the seabreeze will be healthy enough to be experienced
nearshore. A piedmont trough will develop between the two high
centers later in the period and may occasionally bump wind
speeds up by about 5 kt.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DCH
NEAR TERM...CRM
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...SRP
AVIATION...MRR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
506 AM EDT Fri Aug 3 2018

NCZ087-096-099-105-107-109-SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-
059-040915-
Robeson-Bladen-Columbus-Inland Pender-Inland New Hanover-
Inland Brunswick-Marlboro-Darlington-Dillon-Florence-Marion-
Williamsburg-Coastal Horry-Inland Georgetown-Coastal Georgetown-
Central Horry-Northern Horry-
506 AM EDT Fri Aug 3 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast North Carolina and
northeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ106-108-040915-
Coastal Pender-Coastal New Hanover-
506 AM EDT Fri Aug 3 2018

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Moderate Risk of Rip Currents.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

AMZ250-252-254-256-040915-
Coastal waters from Surf City to Cape Fear NC out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Fear NC to Little River Inlet SC out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little River Inlet to Murrells Inlet SC out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Murrells Inlet to South Santee River SC out
20 nm-
506 AM EDT Fri Aug 3 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the adjacent Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ110-040915-
Coastal Brunswick-
506 AM EDT Fri Aug 3 2018

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Moderate Risk of Rip Currents.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

47

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
106 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2018

SCZ017-031745-
Marlboro SC-
106 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2018

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR MARLBORO COUNTY UNTIL 145 PM EDT...

At 106 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Bennettsville, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Bennettsville, Mccoll, Clio, Chavistown, Dunbar, Blenheim and Tatum.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Thunderstorms can pose a variety of threats including gusty winds,
small hail, cloud to ground lightning, and localized flooding. It is
recommended that you remain indoors until the storm passes.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3481 7968 3462 7945 3455 7949 3443 7974
      3446 7975 3447 7973 3449 7972 3449 7973
      3452 7976 3450 7977 3449 7981 3451 7983
      3460 7981 3461 7978 3465 7980 3467 7984
      3481 7978
TIME...MOT...LOC 1706Z 213DEG 21KT 3458 7974

JDW