Small Craft Advisory 46, NWS Wilmington, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
922 PM EDT Fri Oct 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and moist air will return tonight and Saturday with
increasing clouds and chance of showers ahead of an approaching
cold front. The cold front will move through the area Saturday
night followed by Canadian high pressure Sunday, bringing below
normal temperatures to the region through next week. Chances for
rain late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 0922 PM Friday...IR satellite imagery shows lower level
clouds invof a lower level surface convergence zone as it
continues to skirt the coast overnight tonight ahead on a cold
frontal system. Cold frontal passage anticipated to move across
the area late Saturday. Increasing cloud cover and chances for
precipitation are possible. Latest model soundings show some
instability in the profile, especially over the coastal waters,
conducive to producing some thunder within developing showers
Saturday afternoon. Shower activity along the coast and over the
coastal waters expected to diminish with the frontal passage
Saturday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Friday...'Cold Air Advection' the chief headline this
period, in wake of frontal passage Saturday night, and strong
gradient flow early Sunday, enough so, warranting a Gale Watch
offshore, and gusty NW-N coastal winds Saturday and Sunday morning.
The bulk of showers, will be offshore and moving seaward, a few
lingering along the coast into daybreak Sunday. Sharp drying aloft
will scour and dry the low levels Sunday, and CAA ongoing. Max-T
values will just crack 60 degrees most localities with assistance
from from sunshine. Chilly lows to begin Monday, upper 30s inland,
and 40s along the coastal zones, although lighter winds, as the high
nears the area. Being the strongest winds since Michael, it's
possible a few dangling limbs, leaned or weakened trees could still
drop or topple.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 PM Friday...High pressure settling over the Carolinas
on Mon will keep cool and dry weather with temps in the mid 60s
under bright sunshine. By Tues the high will shift off shore as
a dry cold front approaches from the NW. A bit of moisture may
be drawn up ahead of this front with some clouds and pcp
possible, mainly along the SC coast or off shore. Inland areas
from I-95 west, may not see any effects from this dry cold
front.

Another large area of high pressure will build behind the front
through mid week with a push of cooler and drier air Wed into
Thurs. Models still indicating a wedge pattern setting up for
late Thurs into Fri with clouds and pcp spreading northward as
low pressure moves across the Southeast. Latest model runs show
low deepening off the Southeast coast heading into next weekend
with a decent amount of rainfall possible Fri or Sat. Expect
lows in the 40s inland and in the 50s along the coast through
much of next week. Temps will be in the 60s inland to closer to
70 along the coast.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 00Z...Cold front approaching our area tomorrow night will
lead to low cloud decks and gusty winds ahead of front. MVFR,
possibly IFR, stratus is expected at coastal terminals
overnight/early morning, but should lift around daybreak.
Southerly winds overnight around 5 knots will veer to
southwesterly winds by tomorrow morning, increasing to around 10
knots with gusts up to 20 knots across our area. Low ceilings
ahead of front could bring terminals into MVFR conditions early
afternoon tomorrow through the evening, with chance of showers
after 16Z through end of TAF period.

Extended Outlook...Cold front pushes through area at end of
TAF period,drying out clouds and removing precip chances.
Conditions improve to VFR Sunday through early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

As of 0922 PM Friday...Surface wave lifting north across the
waters overnight will give way to high pressure building in from
the east. Resulting southerly flow will be in the 10 to 15 kt
range into Sat morning before gradient starts to become more
defined and southwest winds increase to 15 to 20 kt. Seas
running 2 to 3 ft through the overnight will start increasing as
southwest flow picks up. By the end of the period seas will be
3 to 5 ft with outside shot at some isolated 6 ft well away from
shore.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Friday...Increasingly dangerous marine environment this
period as a strong cold frontal passage brings Gale force gusts
Saturday night and Sunday morning. Gusts to 40 kt not out of the
question as the cold air breaks out over the milder ocean waters. As
such, a 'Gale Watch' has been raised from Cape Fear northward for
this post frontal surge of wind. The slight offshore trajectory will
limit sea-height growth over the 0-20 nm waters, but outer portions
may see 6-7 feet. The sea spectrum will be dominated by north waves
every 6 seconds, making for steep and treacherous wave faces. Winds
will ease by Sunday afternoon, as the center of the approaching high
nears the area.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 300 PM Friday...Cool Canadian high pressure will settle
over the waters on Mon with center just inland and north before
shifting further off shore through Tues. A dry cold front will
cross the water Tues night with another large area of high
pressure building down through mid week. This will produce light
and more variable and veering winds Mon into Tues, 10 kts or
less with seas less than 3 ft.

A northerly surge behind cold front will produce a fairly rapid
increase in winds and seas late Wed into Wed night. The cold
air rushing over the warmer waters will keep the marine layer
well mixed with gusty northerly winds Wed night into Thurs. N-NE
winds will increase to 15 to 25 kts with SCA conditions possible
Wed night.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Saturday through
     Saturday evening for NCZ110.
MARINE...Gale Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for
     AMZ250-252.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MJC/SRP
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...MK

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