Alert archive / North Carolina / Small Craft Advisories in 2018
Small Craft Advisory 39, NWS Wilmington, NC
NWS Wilmington, NC issued this small craft advisory at Jul 22, 2018, 3:32 AM EDT. It took effect at Jul 23, 2018, 6:00 AM EDT. It was in force for 66 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 22, 2018, 3:32 AM EDT (07:32 UTC)
- In effect from
- Jul 23, 2018, 6:00 AM EDT
- Expired
- Jul 26, 2018, 12:00 AM EDT
- In force
- 66 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Wilmington, NC
The text
As transmitted.
806 WHUS72 KILM 220732 MWWILM URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wilmington NC 332 AM EDT Sun Jul 22 2018 AMZ250-252-222000- /O.NEW.KILM.SC.Y.0039.180723T1000Z-180725T1000Z/ Coastal waters from Surf City to Cape Fear NC out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Cape Fear NC to Little River Inlet SC out 20 nm- 332 AM EDT Sun Jul 22 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... The National Weather Service in Wilmington has issued a Small Craft Advisory, which is in effect from 6 AM Monday to 6 AM EDT Wednesday. * Winds...South 15 to 25 kt. * Seas...4 to 7 feet. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots and or seas of 6 ft or greater are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions. && $$ AMZ254-256-222000- /O.NEW.KILM.SC.Y.0039.180723T1600Z-180725T1000Z/ Coastal waters from Little River Inlet to Murrells Inlet SC out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Murrells Inlet to South Santee River SC out 20 nm- 332 AM EDT Sun Jul 22 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... The National Weather Service in Wilmington has issued a Small Craft Advisory, which is in effect from noon Monday to 6 AM EDT Wednesday. * Winds...South 15 to 25 kt. * Seas...4 to 6 feet. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots and or seas of 6 ft or greater are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions. && $$ 17
11 follow-up statements
862 WHUS72 KILM 221915 MWWILM URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wilmington NC 315 PM EDT Sun Jul 22 2018 AMZ250-252-231200- /O.EXT.KILM.SC.Y.0039.180723T1000Z-180725T1900Z/ Coastal waters from Surf City to Cape Fear NC out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Cape Fear NC to Little River Inlet SC out 20 nm- 315 PM EDT Sun Jul 22 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 3 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... * Winds...South 15 to 25 kt. * Seas...5 to 7 feet. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots and or seas of 6 ft or greater are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions. && $$ AMZ254-256-231200- /O.EXT.KILM.SC.Y.0039.180723T1600Z-180725T1900Z/ Coastal waters from Little River Inlet to Murrells Inlet SC out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Murrells Inlet to South Santee River SC out 20 nm- 315 PM EDT Sun Jul 22 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM NOON MONDAY TO 3 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... * Winds...South 10 to 20 kt. * Seas...4 to 6 feet. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots and or seas of 6 ft or greater are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions. && $$ 29
253 WHUS72 KILM 230116 MWWILM URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wilmington NC 916 PM EDT Sun Jul 22 2018 AMZ250-252-230930- /O.CON.KILM.SC.Y.0039.180723T1000Z-180725T1900Z/ Coastal waters from Surf City to Cape Fear NC out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Cape Fear NC to Little River Inlet SC out 20 nm- 916 PM EDT Sun Jul 22 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 3 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... * Winds...South 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. * Seas...4 to 7 feet. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots and or seas of 6 ft or greater are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions. && $$ AMZ254-256-230930- /O.CON.KILM.SC.Y.0039.180723T1600Z-180725T1900Z/ Coastal waters from Little River Inlet to Murrells Inlet SC out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Murrells Inlet to South Santee River SC out 20 nm- 916 PM EDT Sun Jul 22 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON MONDAY TO 3 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... * Winds...South 10 to 20 kt with frequent gusts up to 25 kt. * Seas...4 to 6 feet. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots and or seas of 6 ft or greater are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions. && $$ 11
180 WHUS72 KILM 230808 MWWILM URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wilmington NC 408 AM EDT Mon Jul 23 2018 AMZ250-252-232000- /O.CON.KILM.SC.Y.0039.180723T1000Z-180725T1900Z/ Coastal waters from Surf City to Cape Fear NC out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Cape Fear NC to Little River Inlet SC out 20 nm- 408 AM EDT Mon Jul 23 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... * Winds...South 15 to 25 kt. * Seas...4 to 7 feet. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots and or seas of 6 ft or greater are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions. && $$ AMZ254-256-232000- /O.CON.KILM.SC.Y.0039.180723T1600Z-180725T1900Z/ Coastal waters from Little River Inlet to Murrells Inlet SC out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Murrells Inlet to South Santee River SC out 20 nm- 408 AM EDT Mon Jul 23 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 3 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... * Winds...South 15 to 25 kt. * Seas...4 to 6 feet. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots and or seas of 6 ft or greater are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions. && $$ 17
019 WHUS72 KILM 231930 MWWILM URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wilmington NC 330 PM EDT Mon Jul 23 2018 AMZ250-252-240800- /O.CON.KILM.SC.Y.0039.000000T0000Z-180725T1900Z/ Coastal waters from Surf City to Cape Fear NC out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Cape Fear NC to Little River Inlet SC out 20 nm- 330 PM EDT Mon Jul 23 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... * Winds...South 15 to 25 kt. * Seas...5 to 8 feet. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots and or seas of 6 ft or greater are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions. && $$ AMZ254-256-240800- /O.CON.KILM.SC.Y.0039.000000T0000Z-180725T1900Z/ Coastal waters from Little River Inlet to Murrells Inlet SC out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Murrells Inlet to South Santee River SC out 20 nm- 330 PM EDT Mon Jul 23 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... * Winds...South 15 to 25 kt. * Seas...4 to 7 feet. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots and or seas of 6 ft or greater are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions. && $$
015 WHUS72 KILM 240315 MWWILM URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1115 PM EDT Mon Jul 23 2018 AMZ250-252-241115- /O.CON.KILM.SC.Y.0039.000000T0000Z-180725T1900Z/ Coastal waters from Surf City to Cape Fear NC out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Cape Fear NC to Little River Inlet SC out 20 nm- 1115 PM EDT Mon Jul 23 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... * Winds...South to Southeast 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. * Seas...5 to 8 feet with dominating periods running 7 to 9 seconds. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots and or seas of 6 ft or greater are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions. && $$ AMZ254-256-241115- /O.CON.KILM.SC.Y.0039.000000T0000Z-180725T1900Z/ Coastal waters from Little River Inlet to Murrells Inlet SC out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Murrells Inlet to South Santee River SC out 20 nm- 1115 PM EDT Mon Jul 23 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... * Winds...South 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. * Seas...4 to 7 feet with dominating periods running 7 to 9 seconds. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots and or seas of 6 ft or greater are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions. && $$ dch
596 WHUS72 KILM 240806 MWWILM URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wilmington NC 406 AM EDT Tue Jul 24 2018 AMZ250-252-242000- /O.EXT.KILM.SC.Y.0039.000000T0000Z-180726T0400Z/ Coastal waters from Surf City to Cape Fear NC out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Cape Fear NC to Little River Inlet SC out 20 nm- 406 AM EDT Tue Jul 24 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT... * Winds...South 15 to 25 kt. * Seas...5 to 8 feet. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots and or seas of 6 ft or greater are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions. && $$ AMZ254-256-242000- /O.CON.KILM.SC.Y.0039.000000T0000Z-180725T1900Z/ Coastal waters from Little River Inlet to Murrells Inlet SC out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Murrells Inlet to South Santee River SC out 20 nm- 406 AM EDT Tue Jul 24 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... * Winds...South 15 to 25 kt. * Seas...4 to 7 feet. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots and or seas of 6 ft or greater are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions. && $$ 17
462 WHUS72 KILM 241907 MWWILM URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wilmington NC 307 PM EDT Tue Jul 24 2018 AMZ250-252-250500- /O.CON.KILM.SC.Y.0039.000000T0000Z-180726T0400Z/ Coastal waters from Surf City to Cape Fear NC out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Cape Fear NC to Little River Inlet SC out 20 nm- 307 PM EDT Tue Jul 24 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT... * Winds...South 10 to 20 kt. * Seas...4 to 7 feet. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots and or seas of 6 ft or greater are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions. && $$ AMZ254-256-250500- /O.CON.KILM.SC.Y.0039.000000T0000Z-180725T1900Z/ Coastal waters from Little River Inlet to Murrells Inlet SC out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Murrells Inlet to South Santee River SC out 20 nm- 307 PM EDT Tue Jul 24 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... * Winds...South 10 to 20 kt. * Seas...4 to 7 feet. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots and or seas of 6 ft or greater are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions. && $$
816 WHUS72 KILM 250240 MWWILM URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1040 PM EDT Tue Jul 24 2018 AMZ250-252-250900- /O.CON.KILM.SC.Y.0039.000000T0000Z-180726T0400Z/ Coastal waters from Surf City to Cape Fear NC out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Cape Fear NC to Little River Inlet SC out 20 nm- 1040 PM EDT Tue Jul 24 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT... * Winds...South 10 to 20 kt. * Seas...4 to 7 feet. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots and or seas of 6 ft or greater are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions. && $$ AMZ254-256-250900- /O.CON.KILM.SC.Y.0039.000000T0000Z-180725T1900Z/ Coastal waters from Little River Inlet to Murrells Inlet SC out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Murrells Inlet to South Santee River SC out 20 nm- 1040 PM EDT Tue Jul 24 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... * Winds...South 10 to 20 kt. * Seas...4 to 6 feet. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots and or seas of 6 ft or greater are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions. && $$
639 WHUS72 KILM 250754 MWWILM URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wilmington NC 354 AM EDT Wed Jul 25 2018 AMZ250-252-251600- /O.EXT.KILM.SC.Y.0039.000000T0000Z-180726T1300Z/ Coastal waters from Surf City to Cape Fear NC out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Cape Fear NC to Little River Inlet SC out 20 nm- 354 AM EDT Wed Jul 25 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EDT THURSDAY... * Winds...Southerly 10 to 20 with gusts to 25 kt will become southwest 10 to 20 kt tonight. * Seas...4 to 7 feet exhibiting 6 to 8 second periods. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots and or seas of 6 ft or greater are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions. && $$ AMZ254-256-251600- /O.EXT.KILM.SC.Y.0039.000000T0000Z-180726T0400Z/ Coastal waters from Little River Inlet to Murrells Inlet SC out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Murrells Inlet to South Santee River SC out 20 nm- 354 AM EDT Wed Jul 25 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT... * Winds...Southerly 10 to 20 kt becoming southwest 10 to 15 kt tonight. * Seas...Will peak at 4 to 6 feet thru early this evening. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots and or seas of 6 ft or greater are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions. && $$ dch
407 WHUS72 KILM 251339 MWWILM URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wilmington NC 939 AM EDT Wed Jul 25 2018 AMZ250-252-252145- /O.CON.KILM.SC.Y.0039.000000T0000Z-180726T1300Z/ Coastal waters from Surf City to Cape Fear NC out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Cape Fear NC to Little River Inlet SC out 20 nm- 939 AM EDT Wed Jul 25 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EDT THURSDAY... * Winds...Southwest 10 to 20 kt. * Seas...4 to 7 feet. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots and or seas of 6 ft or greater are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions. && $$ AMZ254-256-252145- /O.CON.KILM.SC.Y.0039.000000T0000Z-180726T0400Z/ Coastal waters from Little River Inlet to Murrells Inlet SC out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Murrells Inlet to South Santee River SC out 20 nm- 939 AM EDT Wed Jul 25 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT... * Winds...Southwest 15 to 20 kt. * Seas...4 to 6 feet. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots and or seas of 6 ft or greater are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions. && $$ 7
212 WHUS72 KILM 251915 MWWILM URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wilmington NC 315 PM EDT Wed Jul 25 2018 AMZ250-252-260400- /O.EXT.KILM.SC.Y.0039.000000T0000Z-180726T0400Z/ Coastal waters from Surf City to Cape Fear NC out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Cape Fear NC to Little River Inlet SC out 20 nm- 315 PM EDT Wed Jul 25 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT... * Winds...Southwest 15to 20 kt. * Seas...4 to 6 feet. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots and or seas of 6 ft or greater are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions. && $$ AMZ254-256-260400- /O.CON.KILM.SC.Y.0039.000000T0000Z-180726T0400Z/ Coastal waters from Little River Inlet to Murrells Inlet SC out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Murrells Inlet to South Santee River SC out 20 nm- 315 PM EDT Wed Jul 25 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT... * Winds...Southwest 15 kt. * Seas...4 to 6 feet. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots and or seas of 6 ft or greater are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions. && $$ 7
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this small craft advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Wilmington, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Jul 22, 3:29 AM EDT, 3 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 22, 3:29 AM EDT, 3 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
329 AM EDT Sun Jul 22 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure stalling over Georgia will help bring tropical
moisture across the eastern Carolinas for the first half of this
week. Showers and thunderstorms will become widespread,
particularly Monday and Tuesday, with heavy rainfall possible.
The low should weaken Wednesday and Thursday with showers and
storms becoming more scattered in coverage.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Sunday...WV imagery early this morning shows deep
cyclonic flow across the Southeast as an upper low drops southward
across Indiana, driving a longwave trough towards the Gulf Coast.
This feature will move nearly due south through the period as flow
becomes halted by an anomalously strong upper ridge across the N
Atlantic, and it is features embedded within this flow that will
spawn convection through the near term.
Current KLTX reflectivity is surprisingly robust at this hour. An
area of strong convection has blossomed from near Raleigh, SW
towards Peachland, and then south to just north of Charleston. This
activity is likely being driven by a shortwave pushing into central
SC at this hour, which is combining with surface convergence along
an outflow boundary to persist convection. These tstms are
blossoming despite dry air aloft, low LFC-LCL RH, and NCape values
of around 0.1. However, dynamical forcing within a strengthening
upper jet downstream of the upper low, combined with height falls
and cooling mid-level temps are driving steep mid-level lapse rates
to keep MLCape values above near 1000 J/kg, and PWATs continue to
climb slowly as moisture advection occurs on strengthening 850-700mb
flow. High-res guidance including the HRRR and most NAM ensembles
are struggling with this development, so confidence is lower than
normal for the evolution through daybreak. However, based off
current trends, have raised POP to LKLY for western portions with a
slow reduction in values further east where forcing will be weaker.
Am not anticipating any severe overnight, but SPC has kept the area
in a MRGL risk through 8am and an isolated strong wind gust or some
hail will remain possible through daybreak.
Any thunderstorms are expected to wane by daybreak, with the
exception being the potential for renewed development just offshore
as the RRQ of a N-S oriented upper jet taps the greater instability
over water. Any thunderstorms offshore will likely remain offshore,
but may get close to Cape Fear and points north as mean flow begins
to increase from the south. Shortwave causing the overnight
convection currently will shift NE, and again there is likely to be
an atypical diurnal minimum in convection as subsidence combines
with drier air advecting into the column to keep a lid on storms
through the aftn. With sunshine again expected, have forecast highs
on the warm side of the guidance envelope except Cape Fear where
southerly winds off the water will keep highs a bit cooler. Expect
highs in the low 90s away from the coast this aftn, peaking in the
upper 80s closer to the beaches.
As the upper low drops further southward, likely becoming centered
near N GA late tonight, deep S/SE flow increases in earnest
accompanied by a theta-e surge and PWATS blossoming to over 2" once
again. Have shown a slow increase in POP from CHC late aftn/eve, to
LKLY by the end of the period as combination of this deep moisture,
continued diffluence aloft, and any forcing due to embedded mid-
level impulses will spawn increasing shower and tstm activity. It is
likely that the very wet period we have been forecasting for several
days now will begin very late tonight and persist into the middle of
the upcoming week. SPC has the area once again in a MRGL risk for
severe this evening, and WPC has Cape Fear in a MRGL risk for
excessive rainfall. The best chance for any strong winds or
localized flooding will be very late in the period and across SE NC,
but the threat within the near term period appears low.
Mins tonight will be warm and humid thanks to the increased warm
southerly winds. Expect lows to fall only to around 2 degrees either
side of 75, warmest at the beaches.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Sunday...An exceptional upper air pattern will
bring the threat for another period of heavy rainfall to the
eastern Carolinas. Vertically stacked low pressure centered over
Georgia is unusual enough this time of year, but look offshore
where a tremendous ridge will build across the western Atlantic.
Forecast 500 mb heights approach 600 dam Monday well off the New
England coast! The long channel of south-southeasterly wind
between these two weather systems will transport a firehose of
Caribbean moisture across the coastal Carolinas where our
precipitable water values will rise to 2.2 inches by Monday
night.
While there is still spread among the various models with regard
to when and where the heaviest rain will occur, the consensus
idea that has developed over the past 24 hours is that heavy
rain is most likely Monday across eastern North Carolina,
shifting a little southwestward on Tuesday to encompass more of
Southeastern North Carolina plus the Grand Strand region of
South Carolina. Storm-total QPF Monday-Tuesday night is
currently 3-4 inches near Cape Fear and 1-2 inches along the
I-95 corridor. Given the variability that always occurs in
convective situations, isolated 6-8 inch totals may not be out
of the question. Wilmington is already experiencing its largest
year-to-date rainfall on record with 48.11 inches through July
21st. There is potential that a Flash Flood Watch will be needed
sometime Monday or Tuesday.
Diurnal temperature ranges will be constrained by the clouds and
rain, particularly on Tuesday. The GFS moisture fields and QPF
appear more reasonable than the NAM, and I've generally used its
output for this forecast.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 PM Saturday...Not a lot of change to the extended forecast
and really much wasn't expected as the guidance has been
relatively stable for several cycles now. Mid level low pressure
is still expected to linger in the Southeast for a few days
with a deep tropical plume/connection funneling into the
Carolinas. The GFS appears to open up the low a little quicker
Thursday (and the latest ECMWF even moreso) with more of a
typical southwest flow aloft, Piedmont Surface Trough setup late
Thursday through Saturday. I have increased the pops for
Tuesday into early Wednesday to mostly categorical with likely
values into Thursday with high chance for the remainder of the
period. Temperature forecast remains relatively unchanged with
highs in the upper 80s to near 90 trending slightly higher in
time with a little less moisture. Overnight lows very stable in
the 70s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 06Z...Uncertainty persists with potential thunderstorms
overnight, but feel chance for terminals getting directly
affected is waning. Most guidance has convection remaining west
of the terminals, and although both FLO/LBT may see a storm
before dawn, will handle this with AMD if necessary. Otherwise,
expect VFR with debris cloudiness and S/SW winds 5-10 kts. VFR
will persist much of Sunday with only isolated tstms expected
until evening. An increase in coverage is forecast late in this
valid period however and have added VCSH all terminals after
dark. More notably may be strong winds along the coast during
the aftn/eve, which could gust above 20 kts at ILM/CRE/MYR from
late morning through late evening.
Extended Outlook...Occasional MVFR to IFR conditions due to
scattered SHRA and TSRA through Thursday.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 AM Sunday...S/SW winds early this morning will gradually
back to become due S this aftn/eve and increase to 15-20 kts. These
speeds will persist then through the end of the near term, with
subtle further backing to the SE likely by Monday morning. These
gusty winds combined with long S/SE fetch will drive wave heights up
through the period, from 2-4 ft this morning, to as high as 4-6 ft
across NC waters late, 3-5 ft further south. The primary wave group
will be a wind/swell hybrid from the S at 6 seconds, with amplitude
growing to 5 ft late. An SCA has been raised for AMZ250 and AMZ252
beginning at 6am Monday, and an SCA has been hoisted for the SC
waters just beyond this period into Monday morning.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Sunday...Low pressure over Georgia and strong high
pressure centered hundreds of miles off the Mid-Atlantic coast
will work together to bring a long south-southeasterly fetch
from the Caribbean to the Carolinas this week. With wind speeds
solidly in the 15-20 kt range and perhaps stronger offshore,
seas will gradually build to 5-7 feet. A Small Craft Advisory
is being issued with this morning forecast package for these
hazardous seas. Dominant wave periods around 7 seconds are
expected. In addition, waves of showers and thunderstorms will
move across the coastal waters through the period. Strong winds,
sharply reduced visibility in heavy rainfall, and even
waterspouts will be possible.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 300 PM Saturday...Southeast winds of 15-20 knots will be in place
much of Tuesday into Wednesday. Winds will veer to more
south/southwest for the remainder of the period with decent speeds
continuing. Elevated seas near Small Craft Advisory criteria will be
side by side with the winds with slightly higher values early in the
period.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through
this evening for SCZ054-056.
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through
this evening for NCZ106-108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon Monday to 6 AM EDT Wednesday
for AMZ254-256.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Monday to 6 AM EDT Wednesday
for AMZ250-252.
&&
SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...JDW
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...JDWHazardous weather outlook, Jul 21, 2:51 PM EDT, 12 hours 41 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Wilmington NC 251 PM EDT Sat Jul 21 2018 NCZ110-221900- Coastal Brunswick- 251 PM EDT Sat Jul 21 2018 ...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast North Carolina. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Moderate Risk of Rip Currents. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Heavy rainfall has the potential to produce flooding Monday through Wednesday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. NCZ106-108-SCZ056-221900- Coastal Pender-Coastal New Hanover-Coastal Georgetown- 251 PM EDT Sat Jul 21 2018 ...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast North Carolina and northeast South Carolina. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Beach Hazards Statement. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Heavy rainfall has the potential to produce flooding Monday through Wednesday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. SCZ054-221900- Coastal Horry- 251 PM EDT Sat Jul 21 2018 ...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... ...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast South Carolina. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Beach Hazards Statement. Moderate Risk of Rip Currents. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Heavy rainfall has the potential to produce flooding Monday through Wednesday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. NCZ087-096-099-105-107-109-SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-055-058-059- 221900- Robeson-Bladen-Columbus-Inland Pender-Inland New Hanover- Inland Brunswick-Marlboro-Darlington-Dillon-Florence-Marion- Williamsburg-Inland Georgetown-Central Horry-Northern Horry- 251 PM EDT Sat Jul 21 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast North Carolina and northeast South Carolina. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Heavy rainfall has the potential to produce flooding Monday through Wednesday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. AMZ250-252-254-256-221900- Coastal waters from Surf City to Cape Fear NC out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Cape Fear NC to Little River Inlet SC out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Little River Inlet to Murrells Inlet SC out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Murrells Inlet to South Santee River SC out 20 nm- 251 PM EDT Sat Jul 21 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the adjacent Coastal Waters. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Small Craft Advisory conditions possible Monday and Tuesday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jul 22, 2:48 AM EDT, 44 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
248 AM EDT SUN JUL 22 2018
SCZ032-039-220730-
Williamsburg SC-Florence SC-
248 AM EDT SUN JUL 22 2018
...Strong thunderstorms will bring gusty winds across Williamsburg
County...
At 247 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Manning to near Eastern Lake Marion.
Movement was east at 45 mph.
Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.
Locations impacted include...
Lake City, Kingstree, Trio, Salters, Hebron, Cades, Gourdin,
Scranton, Lane, Greeleyville, Lake City Community Hospital and
Williamsburg Regional Hospital.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
&&
LAT...LON 3372 7998 3377 8000 3382 7991 3389 7988
3389 7989 3394 7970 3337 7964 3334 7968
3331 7968 3333 7975 3338 7979 3337 7980
3339 7984 3343 7988 3344 7987 3350 7996
3351 8000 3350 8000 3350 8010
TIME...MOT...LOC 0647Z 251DEG 38KT 3377 8026 3337 8021
TRASpecial weather statement, Jul 22, 3:28 AM EDT, 4 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
328 AM EDT SUN JUL 22 2018
SCZ032-039-055-220800-
Williamsburg SC-Florence SC-Inland Georgetown SC-
328 AM EDT SUN JUL 22 2018
...Line of thunderstorms will bring gusty winds...
At 328 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Lake City to near Bonneau. Movement was
northeast at 40 mph.
Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms, along
with frequent lightning.
Locations impacted include...
Lake City, Andrews, Johnsonville, Hemingway, Trio, Warsaw, Hannah,
Poston, Nesmith, Indiantown, Lambert, Earle, Morrisville, Henry,
Kingsburg, Cades, Scranton and Stuckey.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Thunderstorms can pose a variety of threats including gusty winds,
small hail, cloud to ground lightning, and localized flooding. It is
recommended that you remain indoors until the storms pass.
&&
LAT...LON 3327 7956 3330 7966 3332 7971 3332 7974
3338 7979 3337 7980 3342 7987 3392 7975
3399 7951 3397 7948 3394 7949 3389 7941
3325 7954
TIME...MOT...LOC 0728Z 246DEG 34KT 3389 7976 3326 7992
TRAThe office that day
Everything else NWS Wilmington, NC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 22, 5:07 AM EDT | Special Weather Statement | ILM | Robeson | 23 min |
| Jul 22, 7:52 PM EDT | Beach Hazards Statement | ILM | New Hanover, Pender | 24 hr |
| Jul 22, 7:52 PM EDT | Rip Current Statement | ILM | Brunswick, New Hanover, Pender | 24 hr |
| Jul 22, 2:48 AM EDT | Special Weather Statement | ILM | Williamsburg | 42 min |
| Jul 22, 3:28 AM EDT | Special Weather Statement | ILM | Williamsburg | 32 min |
| Jul 22, 5:21 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | ILM | Georgetown, Horry, Marion, Williamsburg | 114 min |
| Jul 22, 7:29 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | ILM | Georgetown, Williamsburg | 108 min |
Nearby
Small Craft Advisories in North Carolina, 2018Every small craft advisory in 2018
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.